QQ against calling station

Villain is 52/14/48% over 69 hands. He goes to showdown 47% of the time he sees a flop. He sees the river >90% of the time he sees a flop (21/23)

I have a few questions:
1) Should I bet the turn against an opponent like this or check when the ace hits? I think I played too scared here, since his range is so wide he can have a ton of cards besides Ax. I feel I should have bet for value and protection, and reevaluate if he raises me.
2) As played, do you lead out on the river?
3) Assuming you lead out, do you call the raise?


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($2.27)
Hero (BB) ($5.56)
UTG ($4.32)
MP ($5)
Button ($5.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with ,
1 fold, MP bets $0.15, Button calls $0.15, SB calls $0.13, Hero raises to $0.65, 1 fold, Button calls $0.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.60) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $1, Button calls $1

Turn: ($3.60) (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($3.60) (2 players)
Hero bets $1.80, Button raises to $3.45 (All-In), Hero ???

River is an easy value bet. As played, I'd lay it down. I'd also seriously consider betting the turn for value against this clown.

Hm, I was going to say I'd tend to lead the A on the turn but considering he goes to showdown such a considerable amount I'd probably c/c turn & evaluate the river. I don't mind your line tbh.

Too many worse hands call for betting the turn to be a mistake.

yeah I was thinking the same, really. Vbetting here all the way is pretty good too, if not better.

Regarding the above, I'd suggest that going for 3 streets might be a bit thin.

Considering range balancing, it's noteworthy that we would c-bet this flop with all of our range and lead the turn with our air 100% of the time.

Disregarding this, irrelevent as it often is at these stakes, c/f turn can't be bad, planning to strongly v-bet any blank river if it checks through. It's unlikely that villain will v-bet a worse made hand/turn floated PPs into a bluff and the majority of the rest of his floating range AK/AQ/etc just hit. It's also easier for villain to call slightly wider on the river since our line looks kinda FOS.

Would there be anything wrong with betting higher on the flop, say full pot?

i like $1.40 or full pot with anything for value vs this guy on the flop. there's no need for balance here. his calling range is going to be wide including heaps of worse 1 pair hands, plus there is a straight draw and a flush draw.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Too many worse hands call for betting the turn to be a mistake.

Not sure I follow your reasoning here. What do you mean, please explain.

Originally Posted by Tasha

Not sure I follow your reasoning here. What do you mean, please explain.

I'll have a guess.

Look at villain's stats. His VPIP is high and he sees showdown nearly 50% of the time. I would hazard a guess that all of this together means that he pays ppl off a lot and there is more junk in that range than there are aces.

So for value reasons, it would be a better decision to bet the turn as it'll probably result in a nice pot for hero.

Incidentally, would knowing his won at showdown stat help here?

Is this right?

Originally Posted by Tasha

Not sure I follow your reasoning here. What do you mean, please explain.

he means that hero can bet the turn for value because the described villain will have a ton of worse hands in his range that he will still call if we bet.

so if its a +EV value bet on the turn, then it wouldn't be a mistake to go ahead with it.

Thanks Easy and M2M, I can see it now. I reread the original post and I see what you mean.
So what would be the maximum EV+ bet after the turn. I did a rough calculation and came out with $1.38.
Is that close to being right?

By what means did you reach that figure?

I assume that those electing to bet the turn are also making a very small v-bet on the river. If we're going for 2 streets then checking the turn seems, to me, a superior line.

Originally Posted by rpm

i like $1.40 or full pot with anything for value vs this guy on the flop. there's no need for balance here. his calling range is going to be wide including heaps of worse 1 pair hands, plus there is a straight draw and a flush draw.

You're right, my flop bet size was definitely too small against someone that is willing to call so wide.

But assuming I did bet 1.40 and he called, the pot would be 4.40 on the turn with about 3.00 behind. Do you shove the turn when the A hits?

Originally Posted by Tasha

Thanks Easy and M2M, I can see it now. I reread the original post and I see what you mean.
So what would be the maximum EV+ bet after the turn. I did a rough calculation and came out with $1.38.
Is that close to being right?

How do you do a rough calculation when you don't know what his continuing range is and how it's effected by bet sizing lol??

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

he means that hero can bet the turn for value because the described villain will have a ton of worse hands in his range that he will still call if we bet.

so if its a +EV value bet on the turn, then it wouldn't be a mistake to go ahead with it.

His range is wide and has A LOT more Jx and drawing hands than Ax hands. He also figures to at least see a river with a lot of his hands (hence the frustration when these guys catch up and win a big.)

On the river, his draws miss more often than not and he's probably not calling a big bet with Jx (but he might!) So you get far more value betting the turn than the river.

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

How do you do a rough calculation when you don't know what his continuing range is and how it's effected by bet sizing lol??

Hmm, now I'm not sure what I did. However, the question still stands, what would be the maximum bet that is still worth making after the turn?

Originally Posted by Tasha

Hmm, now I'm not sure what I did. However, the question still stands, what would be the maximum bet that is still worth making after the turn?

You can't calculate that without really accurate reads on the villain

Okay, I get it now. We don't have some of the information we need.
But what about taking the information we do have. On the turn, where the hero above checked; what would be the maximum raise to make based on how strong we think hero's hand is? Is there anyway to calculate that or is it just a gut feeling?

Originally Posted by Tasha

Okay, I get it now. We don't have some of the information we need.
But what about taking the information we do have. On the turn, where the hero above checked; what would be the maximum raise to make based on how strong we think hero's hand is? Is there anyway to calculate that or is it just a gut feeling?

You need to know the villains range

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

Translated-
Russian to English translationShow romanization

Food wholesale selling (Society culprit): sugar, flour, buckwheat, rice, butter and sunflower oil, canned food and meat shop, fruit juices and nectars, legs, catfish, SPV, canned fish in the range of other products all of the guests's TV. Great prices to wholesalers. Applications and a complete package of documents with the price I'll send for the mail. The petition requires the company name and telephone number of your application

Why? I was just going to assume this was something to do with mail order brides and get in on it quick!! But you just had to ruin that for me.

Definitely bet the turn 100% of the time. I like to gaybet (like 50c) the river here. Worse hands call, you lose the least against hands that beat you, and the only thing raising is a flush.

So what did we learn from all of this? It would have been better to bet the Turn with to force villain into taking an action rather than getting a card for free?

Originally Posted by Tasha

So what did we learn from all of this? It would have been better to bet the Turn with to force villain into taking an action rather than getting a card for free?

I learned that I should have value bet the turn because there are a lot more worse hands that would call than better hands with this specific villain.

Originally Posted by NightGizmo

I learned that I should have value bet the turn because there are a lot more worse hands that would call than better hands with this specific villain.

+1

Sounds good to me.