QQ against calling station

Too many worse hands call for betting the turn to be a mistake.

yeah I was thinking the same, really. Vbetting here all the way is pretty good too, if not better.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Too many worse hands call for betting the turn to be a mistake.

Not sure I follow your reasoning here. What do you mean, please explain.

Originally Posted by Tasha

Not sure I follow your reasoning here. What do you mean, please explain.

I'll have a guess.

Look at villain's stats. His VPIP is high and he sees showdown nearly 50% of the time. I would hazard a guess that all of this together means that he pays ppl off a lot and there is more junk in that range than there are aces.

So for value reasons, it would be a better decision to bet the turn as it'll probably result in a nice pot for hero.

Incidentally, would knowing his won at showdown stat help here?

Is this right?

Originally Posted by Tasha

Not sure I follow your reasoning here. What do you mean, please explain.

he means that hero can bet the turn for value because the described villain will have a ton of worse hands in his range that he will still call if we bet.

so if its a +EV value bet on the turn, then it wouldn't be a mistake to go ahead with it.

Thanks Easy and M2M, I can see it now. I reread the original post and I see what you mean.
So what would be the maximum EV+ bet after the turn. I did a rough calculation and came out with $1.38.
Is that close to being right?

Originally Posted by Tasha

Thanks Easy and M2M, I can see it now. I reread the original post and I see what you mean.
So what would be the maximum EV+ bet after the turn. I did a rough calculation and came out with $1.38.
Is that close to being right?

How do you do a rough calculation when you don't know what his continuing range is and how it's effected by bet sizing lol??

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

How do you do a rough calculation when you don't know what his continuing range is and how it's effected by bet sizing lol??

Hmm, now I'm not sure what I did. However, the question still stands, what would be the maximum bet that is still worth making after the turn?

Originally Posted by Tasha

Hmm, now I'm not sure what I did. However, the question still stands, what would be the maximum bet that is still worth making after the turn?

You can't calculate that without really accurate reads on the villain

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

he means that hero can bet the turn for value because the described villain will have a ton of worse hands in his range that he will still call if we bet.

so if its a +EV value bet on the turn, then it wouldn't be a mistake to go ahead with it.

His range is wide and has A LOT more Jx and drawing hands than Ax hands. He also figures to at least see a river with a lot of his hands (hence the frustration when these guys catch up and win a big.)

On the river, his draws miss more often than not and he's probably not calling a big bet with Jx (but he might!) So you get far more value betting the turn than the river.