That is the range getting to the river. He can have Jx hands getting to the flop but I doubt he calls the cbet with any of them (other than JJ obviously).
I am also not saying that A5s or 65s are always in his range otf, but that IF he calls with them preflop then he would continue with them to the river.
So we could optimistically give him a river calling range of:
88+,AhKh,55,22 and sorry but I really have a hard time giving him any AJ after the flop here (he is not that fishy). Against that range I have exactly 50% equity.
You could discount AA-KK and AhKh a bit, but then you could also argue that 88 and 99 would not call all the way.
I still think it's close, but if everyone wants to shove fine, so be it.
What do you think of the turn bet?
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