I think the best you can try to do is put someone on a
range of hands and try to guess at which hand combination is the most likely for that person.
eg.
You are the
button with AJ, there is two limpers before you and you
limp in too.
Flop comes 36J with two hearts.
BB and first guy
check, second limper min-bets and you
raise to 3/4 the pot. At this point the BB and first limper
fold and the guy who min-betted calls.
Now you think about his guy:
1) You think he is a
fish because he plays a lot of hands and likes to gamble.
2) You
check your
notes on the guy and they say you've seen him show down Axs.
What else do we know:
1) You know from experience that
fish like to play sooted cards.
2) You've read that lots of really bad players like to min-bet draws in the hope that other players wont
raise.
3) You know that the
flop has a possible
flush draw and low
straight draw.
4) You know its unlikely he has the straght
draw because though he is a bad player is is unlikely that he is playing 45.
(This would be different if the
big blind was playing against you, he could have anything)
5) If he has the a jack then his
kicker is lower then yours so you arent to concerned about that. You also remember that
fish love to
call down with
TPNK so is a strong possibility that is what he is doing.
6)
Fish don't mind chasing without
pot odds.
Now keeping all this in mind, we watch as the 2 of hearts hits the
turn.
Villan thinks for a few seconds and checks.
What do we know:
1) His two most likely holdings are a
pair or a
flush draw. He also could have 2
pair or a
set but they are hard to detect so we wont worry about them for the minute.
2) We know that bad players like to slowplay strong hands.
Okay, so at this point we are slightly worried that he has the
flush. So we bet for information.
We aren't trying to defend against draws so a 1/3 pot bet should do.
We bet 1/3 the pot and the villan thinks again and calls.
New info:
1) Again villan likes to slowplay so we are still thinking he could have the
flush even though he didnt
raise.
2) The probability of him having something like a
pair increaces a little bit because we know that
fish like to
call down with pairs.
River comes 2c
This is a card which is unlikely to have helped anyone except a
set which is now a
full house.
Villan bets 3/4 the pot.
Now we think:
1) His most likely hands were a
pair and a
flush.
2) He wouldn't produce this big
river bet if he had a
pair. It doesn't follow the
standard fish calling down pattern. A
pair is out.
3) It's possible he had a
set or
two pair but I think he would have raised the
turn because my bet was so small. We give this a 20% probability.
4) Its always possible he is bluffing, according to Harrington on Holdem this should get at least 10%.
5) Its still possible he is playing a
pair in a weird way. 20%
6) The most likely possibility is that he has the
flush. 50%
So we
fold.
So, considering all the above we deduce that his most likely holding is a
flush. Congradulations, we've put the guy on a hand.