Pushing w/ Flush draws

In moving to NL$200, I've noticed a vast increase in the number of players making this play. Caused me to think a bit...

With a 35% chance to hit, is it proper play to push every time you have such a draw with an unpaired board, providing you expect at least 2 callers? It seems like you'd see a lot of variance with this approach (65% of the time, you're dropping your stack), but long term, is this a g00t play? What about pushing when you're in the same situation, with a stack that's just a bit less than the size of the pot? If you take it down, you're golden; if you get any callers, you have the odds on your side.

Thoughts?

On a related note...Can a play be correct and make money for both players involved? Ex. I have a flush draw and you have a set. I push; you call. If 35% of the time, I make more than double my bet, it's a winning play for me. But if you make more than double the bet 65% of the time, it's even more of a winner for you. So who's the loser? The pot?

Semi bluff.

The added equity of winning the pot with the all in raise on the flop is what makes this a winning play. I make this play sometimes, but usually only when I have something in addition to my flush draw, such as middle or bottom pair or a gutshot. Having 13 or 14 outs on the flop actually makes you a favourite a lot of the time when you do get called. That makes this play a big money winner.

people can push all in on me with their flush draws all they want, i'll call with a set everytime.


its a winning move if you can mostly get folds and pick up the pot there.. and if your called you have outs. doyle recommends it in his book, but i dont play at high a enough level for people to respect raises.

I'm not sure about the EV on this one, but it's pretty damn close to dead on 0. It's a situational play really, let's say you had a read which led you to the assumption that your opponent had a big hand and will call any bet on the flop and beat you 65% of the time, do you push? Or let's say your table is a bunch of TPs who will fold fold fold most of the time even in a pot that has been raised preflop. Do you push there?

It's a very very marginal play, I can't tell which one is right.

Hi JeffreyGB,

To answer your question about if a play can be positive EV for both players involved, this is of course impossible if their are only two players in the pot. It can happen, however, that a play can be +ev for two players if their are three or more in the pot.

Some stats:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1036529
pokenum -h as ks - 2d 2h -- 2s 7s 8h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s 2s 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 244 24.65 746 75.35 0 0.00 0.246
2d 2h 746 75.35 244 24.65 0 0.00 0.754

Versus a set, you will only win at showdown when pushing on the flop about 25% of the time. This is because the set has the redraw to pair the board ... which apparently costs you about 10%.

As someone else mentioned, any gain in value for a player has to be a loss to another player.

You also have to consider how much EV this gains you for other hands. If you play a semi-bluffed flush draw and a set with a 2 suited flop the same way, people will often make the wrong decision. If they always fold, you gain on your semi-bluffs. If they always call, you gain on your sets.

Then again, I'm not always sure I want to be putting all my money in the pot with only a 25-40% chance of winning if called. I'd usually rather be on the other end of that transaction.

(BTW, congrats on moving to NL$200.)

You don't have to double post you can simply edit your own post and ass it in at the bottom. The admin here doesn't have restrictions here on editing and deleting your own posts so take advantage of it.

On topic: I believe if you push to much on the draw it's dumb and arragent. If everyone around you is betting high (depending on your position at table) this is not something you should get yourself into. Say a raise occurs ( a pretty heavy one) and you get two calls prior to you and now it's your turn. This meens you have possibly three players that have hands already and are only awaiting for your chips to be theirs. Sometimes you need to stay away from dangerous draws and save thoughs bets for more sure hands.

If I thought I could get all 3 players in the pot with me, Id push every time.

NomaD

Originally Posted by JeffreyGB

On a related note...Can a play be correct and make money for both players involved? Ex. I have a flush draw and you have a set. I push; you call. If 35% of the time, I make more than double my bet, it's a winning play for me. But if you make more than double the bet 65% of the time, it's even more of a winner for you. So who's the loser? The pot?

With enough dead money, anything is possible.

-'rilla

Originally Posted by JeffreyGB

On a related note...Can a play be correct and make money for both players involved? Ex. I have a flush draw and you have a set. I push; you call. If 35% of the time, I make more than double my bet, it's a winning play for me. But if you make more than double the bet 65% of the time, it's even more of a winner for you. So who's the loser? The pot?

35% to win means roughly 2:1 odds against you. your payout odds in a heads up situation are roughly 1:1. therefore you are losing in the long run. you lose 2 times for every 1 time you win. your wins do not pay enough to cover your losses.

now if it's a multiway pot preflop, then it goes heads up, lots of dead money ends up in the pot. so in this situation it may be +EV for BOTH of you to call because you are splitting the dead money.

ChezJ

Originally Posted by ChezJ

Originally Posted by JeffreyGB

On a related note...Can a play be correct and make money for both players involved? Ex. I have a flush draw and you have a set. I push; you call. If 35% of the time, I make more than double my bet, it's a winning play for me. But if you make more than double the bet 65% of the time, it's even more of a winner for you. So who's the loser? The pot?

35% to win means roughly 2:1 odds against you. your payout odds in a heads up situation are roughly 1:1. therefore you are losing in the long run. you lose 2 times for every 1 time you win. your wins do not pay enough to cover your losses.

now if it's a multiway pot preflop, then it goes heads up, lots of dead money ends up in the pot. so in this situation it may be +EV for BOTH of you to call because you are splitting the dead money.

ChezJ

Notice I said "if I make more thank double my bet" implying that the pot was at least equal to my stack size. At least, that's what I meant...that I profit by at least double my bet. It's a valid argument that the set vs flush draw stats aren't really as good as this though, since if the board pairs I'm hosed.

oh well in that case the dead money argument applies and both players have +EV.

Originally Posted by JeffreyGB

In moving to NL$200, I've noticed a vast increase in the number of players making this play. Caused me to think a bit...

With a 35% chance to hit, is it proper play to push every time you have such a draw with an unpaired board, providing you expect at least 2 callers? It seems like you'd see a lot of variance with this approach (65% of the time, you're dropping your stack), but long term, is this a g00t play? What about pushing when you're in the same situation, with a stack that's just a bit less than the size of the pot? If you take it down, you're golden; if you get any callers, you have the odds on your side.

Thoughts?

On a related note...Can a play be correct and make money for both players involved? Ex. I have a flush draw and you have a set. I push; you call. If 35% of the time, I make more than double my bet, it's a winning play for me. But if you make more than double the bet 65% of the time, it's even more of a winner for you. So who's the loser? The pot?

When would you ever expect 2+ callers for an all-in bet?

And it's completely possible for both players to make a mathematically "correct" decision to put all their money in the pot. Take the hypothetical situation where there's $1,000 in the pot, a guy with a set goes all-in for $100, and a guy with a flush draw and a $100 stack calls all-in. The guy with the set is compounding the statistical advantage he likely has in the hand or winning the pot immediately, while the guy with the flush draw expects to win more than he loses by making the call, even if he loses most of the time, so both players are making fine decisions mathematically. Unless the player with the flush draw made a total contribution to the pot which exceeds what he expects to win on the river, then neither player is a loser, and the losers are other players at the table.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

When would you ever expect 2+ callers for an all-in bet?

When playing short stack, for one.

Thanks for the analysis of who "loses" - well said.

I wouldn't push... just call with the draw

Originally Posted by midas06

I wouldn't push... just call with the draw

You've got to raise with a draw at some point. Cant play draws so obviously everytime.

-'rilla

I think evman said it the best. If you have extra outs besides the flush, it's a play you need to make sometimes. I've thought a lot about this, and in Pot Limit No Limit by Rueben and Ciaffone (spelling?) they deal with this topic.

Their take is if you have an overcard that's hit...say a king, or the Ax for the nut flush, you might push given that maybe your top pair will hold up.

A gutshot straight draw will give you 13, but at the $25 tables I play on, if you are in early position and are not drawing to the nut flush, well...it seems like a case of higher limits chasing less and lower buy in's chasing more. Your giving that Ax good odds to chase too.

This is just my (actually their) 2 cents and I haven't been playing long enough to be like... a reliable source, but I think this would also really depend on if you were at a full ring table or six max.

My basic guidelines are:

If you had the extra outs of top pair, it's time to decide if you want to gamble. If you have a gutshot straight draw, It would depend on your read of the guy. If you had the additional outs of a open ended straight draw you should push everytime. If your just looking at the non nut flush draw with no over cards (nine outs) in early position you should muck it.

I used to call/push all in alot with my flush draws back when I first started poker;but nowadays I only do it if the pot is BIG and I have at least some sort of pair with decent kicker.My results are about even;sometimes I hit sometimes I miss.

Nowadays I usually just raise my flush draw on the flop.On the turn I check if last to act for the free card;if I'm first to act I lead out for a decent turn sized pot.On occasion if the player is someone who fold to an all in on the turn I will push to induce the fold(so far I've been called only once,and that was because the dude had flopped two pair and was goin to call me regardless).

Often I find people will fold then because they presume you are playing a set or two pair.