Pushing draws

Lately I've been thinking about playing big draws more aggressively, for obvious reasons (table image, fold equity).

Today this hand came up. Wasn't too sure about it at first, but after doing some equity calculations I was actually pretty happy about my play:

** Game ID 644521120 starting - 2006-01-12 04:17:39

** Help [Hold 'em] (1.00|2.00 No Limit - Cash Game) Real Money

- dealmein2 sitting in seat 1 with $206.10
- GhostmanGB sitting in seat 2 with $81.20 [Dealer]
- Misfit_NYC sitting in seat 3 with $78.20
- drjus2003 sitting in seat 4 with $135.40
- SkyBlue sitting in seat 5 with $157.54
- markrn sitting in seat 6 with $219.90
- asowell sitting in seat 7 with $400.45
- NewDog sitting in seat 8 with $211.70
- johnny291281 sitting in seat 9 with $243.80

Misfit_NYC posted the small blind - $1.00
drjus2003 posted the big blind - $2.00

** Dealing card to johnny291281: 7 of Hearts, 7 of Spades

SkyBlue folded
markrn called - $2.00
asowell raised - $12.00
NewDog folded
johnny291281 called - $12.00
dealmein2 folded
GhostmanGB folded
Misfit_NYC folded
drjus2003 called - $12.00
markrn called - $12.00

** Dealing the flop: 4 of Spades, 5 of Hearts, 6 of Spades

drjus2003 checked
markrn checked
asowell bet - $53.00
johnny291281 went all-in - $231.80

Discuss.

I guess the most important question (if youve played with these guys before) is are you prepared to do that with the made straight. (i assume ops here are aware enough to notice if you only do this as a semibluff).
I think the spades work in your favour because you look like you are dropping the hammer there.
I suppose theres a fair chance he has AK and folds. A small chance he folds AA-TT (does he raise TT preflop from that position?)

I dont hate the play but i dont think it works at 5NL lol. Your allin is only just over 2x pot, so the play probably works out +EV but you need him to be able to fold his overpairs often enough. Im worried that he wont believe you play that way with a made straight/set and puts you on a semibluff instead.
The plus side is that the more people call you, the more your made straights will make too. I think this can work as long as you tune your semibluff/made hand pushing ratio so that you are getting the number of calls/folds you want.

Edit: I think it works better against habitual cbetters who raise A-high card, but limp PPs. e.g. raise AKs-AJo, KQ maybe KJ. In this case however, i think hes far more likely to have a big pair than high unpaired cards because of his position. There just arent that many people who raise KQo from that position. I think it probably works better if the raiser is in late position. They are more likely to have a weaker hand and it means you wont have to play out of position for the rest of the hand.

yuk
If you're ahead, and that i doubt then you have 10 outs. 8 to the straight 2 to the set and possibly but unlikey ome to the runner runner flush.
I reckon you're a dog here far to often to play it that way.

Yeah I don't really see the point either.

TPTK folds, therefore you lose money agaisn't really the only hand you can beat.

Every other hand has you beat, and would most likley call you because nobody would play a made straight like that. So basically you are putting a huge junk of change on the line for a 60/40 situation in your ops favor.

This would be an easy call for me with an overpair because this play screams semi-bluff..

Pushing sucks but its probably the best option, folding is too weak for an OESD and overpair, calling dosent give the odds to chase and could lead to a very sticky situation on the turn and any meaningfull raise will pretty much commit you on the next card anyway.

I dont mind this play against a thinking player. If anything your repping a set, looking to trap a high PP (which, with that flop overbet, is a very likley holding) whilst protecting against draws. A tight player will probably lay down an overpair enough times for this to have +EV.

I don't think its a bad move. From my perspective as a weak/tight, it is hard to call. As such, I think it’s a good move.
I just will never have the balls to do it. Hehe.

This is a standard play for me. That is a monster flop for your hand and a terrible flop for an overpair. Overcards (which he very well might have) auto-fold this push and you put overpairs to a very tough decision. If you're called, you got 10 outs with two cards to come, which means you're getting pretty much the right odds anyway. There's no way you can fold this flop and just calling puts you to a tough decision on the turn if you don't hit (and gives overcards a chance to catch up and if you hit your draw you won't get paid), so you gotta push. Easy decision in my book.

minraise

think about it

This feels like a play that will only get called from those that are beating you. I think you'd be better off loosing a small amount of money to an overpair than a stack. Why not play it strong through the river and hope to hit one of your 10 outs?

I don't see many KK or AA folding to an AI here, because sets would generally play for value. This looks like a semi-bluff bet, and would still not get called from TPTK's.

Originally Posted by BankItPayette

This feels like a play that will only get called from those that are beating you. I think you'd be better off loosing a small amount of money to an overpair than a stack. Why not play it strong through the river and hope to hit one of your 10 outs?

I don't see many KK or AA folding to an AI here, because sets would generally play for value. This looks like a semi-bluff bet, and would still not get called from TPTK's.

I think you are missing the value of aggression, if you are called you will be behind but it dosent matter. The opponent will fold a percentage of the time giving you the pot, in this case $100+. When he calls you have plenty of outs, you are just giving yourself more ways to win a significant pot.

Also, would a set really slowplay that board? This isn't a general case, the value has already been extracted, the turn could be a disaster and I know if I had one I'd be pushing.

A min-raise would be a good way of (maybe) getting a cheap showdown and a look at some more cards. But you are almost certainly behind in this hand and I think you need to utalise your fold equity while you still have it.

Really interesting hand, and a topic that I'm curious about too. I think this is a great play provided you have a read on villian. Without a read I don't like it. Also, would you play a set/straight/2pair like this?

Also, like nutsinho said, I think this is might be an appropriate situation for a minraise. If villian is a thinking player, a minraise can be a lot scarier than a push. Even after minraising you have enough money behind to move villian off his hand. This would also depend on your image tho.

Lastly, for the number crunchers, exactly what percentage of the time would villian have to fold an overpair like TT+ in order for this move to be +EV?

This is the first time I've crunched like this so please check the maths, but I think its right. It's also assuming no-one has a set.

Looking at the Pokerstove we're only 40% behind

Board: 4s 6s 5h Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)

Hand 1: 39.3939 % 38.59% 00.81% { 7h7s }
Hand 2: 60.6061 % 59.80% 00.81% { TT+ }


Now assuming 20% folds

100 hands

20 folds
pot 101
20 wins = 2020

80 calls
pot(48+231+231) = 510
32 wins of 510 = 16320
48 losses of 231 = -11088

100 hands total = $7252
So thats $72.52 per hand


Okay, now 10% folds

100 hands

10 folds
pot 101
10 wins = 1010

90 calls
pot(48+231+231) = 510
36 wins of 510 = 18360
54 losses of 231 = -12474

100 hands total = $6896
So thats $68.96 per hand


Now heres where it gets interesting.....

No folds

100 hands

100 calls
pot(48+231+231) = 510
40 wins of 510 = 20400
60 losses of 231 = -13860

100 hands total $6540
Thats $65.40 per hand


If these are right and the villian has an overpair then we should stick it in even if we know we are getting called, due to the size of the pot. As our fold equity increases, so does our EV.

Interesting.

You are assuming that when we win, we win the pot but when we lose we only lose the extra $231.80 we had to push. That’s not true. We also lose the $12 we already put in. [I started writing this then realized it was only $12. $12 is not going to change the outcome.]

Wow, its +EV even if we know we are getting called by and overpair? Something seems wrong there.


No folds

100 hands

100 calls
pot(48+231+231) = 510
40 wins of 510 = 20400
60 losses of 243.8 = -14628

100 hands = $5772 or $57.72 per hand

In fact, our pot equity has to go down below 32% for this to be –EV.

Someone check the math. Is this correct?

If you have a REALLY solid read that you are pushing into a PP that's one thing, but you're not including ALL the possible hands in the range of hands you are pushing into in the EV calcs.

What about a flush that already has you beat even if you hit? What about the nut str8? You mentioned the possibility of having to beat a set if called too.

There are 4 players in the pot that could be holding pretty much anything.

What more do you want?

blood?

Okay then, if there is a set out there...

Board: 4s 6s 5h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 32.8165 % 32.23% 00.59% { 7h7s }
Hand 2: 09.6715 % 09.08% 00.59% { TT+ }
Hand 3: 57.5120 % 56.92% 00.59% { 44 }

Our equity has only dropped to 32%. With the increaced pot size from villian 2's call then it is clearly still +EV. Makes sense as, apart from FH redraws, our outs are still live.

The nut straight would make things a lot worse but as we hold half the 7s and its a raised pot this is highly unlikley. I don't think anyone would chase a flush at this level with this action, but who knows? I think a set is the only real hidden danger / too tired to do any more.

Originally Posted by finky

Okay then, if there is a set out there...

Board: 4s 6s 5h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 32.8165 % 32.23% 00.59% { 7h7s }
Hand 2: 09.6715 % 09.08% 00.59% { TT+ }
Hand 3: 57.5120 % 56.92% 00.59% { 44 }

Our equity has only dropped to 32%. With the increaced pot size from villian 2's call then it is clearly still +EV. Makes sense as, apart from FH redraws, our outs are still live.

The nut straight would make things a lot worse but as we hold half the 7s and its a raised pot this is highly unlikley. I don't think anyone would chase a flush at this level with this action, but who knows? I think a set is the only real hidden danger / too tired to do any more.

I agree with your reasoning, that unless there is a fairly clear read on villain, we have to assume he is making that EP raise with big PP's, or even better something like AQs. And psychologically, the fold equity, I believe is very high, and I suspect villain folded. If the flop were 4,5,6s, making a flush draw present as well, this would be absolutely dynamite.
However, there is a major flaw in the mathematics.

The easiest way to break it down is this:

We have $50000 at the table.
We lose the first 60 hands -14600.
Now we have 35400.
We have 40 wins coming our way +20400.
However, of that 20400, half is ours.
Let's say we put in our stake for the 40 wins coming our way first -10200.
We have $25200.
Now we win our hands +20400.
We have $46600.
-$34 per hand. With the fold equity I believe we just about break even. This unfortunately is not +EV, though I think it's still a marvelous maneuver and i'd even peg the fold % to be much higher than %20.

This hand doesn't really matter, I just wanted some insights/comments about pushing draws (or generally 40-60 hands) in general. Fold equity and, to a lesser extent, table image interests me.

Anyway, my reasoning about this particular hand:

His UTG+2 6BB raise indicates AQ+/JJ+. His flop bet into 3 opps gives further evidence for an overpair.

Board: 4s 5h 6s
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.3939 % 38.59% 00.81% { 7h7s }
Hand 2: 60.6061 % 59.80% 00.81% { JJ+ }

EV=F x ( 102+231.8) + (1-F) x .394 x (463.6+49) - 231.8

Assuming F=.50, then EV is +35$, rake not included (break-even point is at 23%, it almost surely is higher than that, since overcards will fold).

Results: Call by QQ, which held up.

With hindsight, I probably should've raised to 120. That looks less like a semi-bluff, so FE increases.

Did anyone notice Villain could have put me on a trapping AA?

Well, it was my first time..

So the wins when called a win would be (48+231) not (48+231+231). That makes sense, I thought it was too good to be true.

Thanks for sorting me out, is this correct?

20 folds
pot 101
20 wins = 2020

80 calls
32 wins of 279 = 8928
48 losses of 231 = -11088

100 hands total = -$140
So thats -$1.40 per hand

Thanks

Originally Posted by finky

Well, it was my first time..

So the wins when called a win would be (48+231) not (48+231+231). That makes sense, I thought it was too good to be true.

Thanks for sorting me out, is this correct?

20 folds
pot 101
20 wins = 2020

80 calls
32 wins of 279 = 8928
48 losses of 231 = -11088

100 hands total = -$140
So thats -$1.40 per hand

Thanks

No worries. A simple (though potentially disastrous) mistake that if anybody, especially making quick calculations on the fly, says they haven't done they're lying.
Give or take some dollars here and there that is fairly accurate. I'd put the FE even higher, but unfortunately our hero lost this one. It was a good read on villain holding the high PP pair.

Interesting question. I don't like pushing draws in a cash game, but this is a different beast altogether. I think this is a very smart play because the overpair can't call here. It looks like you have a set or AT LEAST two pair because you're protecting your monster against the multitude of draws.

However, if you do this a lot and your rep is laggy, then you better be prepared for a call. Honestly, I'd hate a call here. Maybe you're fine with it, but not me. If you do this infrequently in your 200NL game, I bet it will win you many pots right there on the spot. However, how many times do you get this perfect flop? It's pretty rare.

However, how many times do you get this perfect flop? It's pretty rare.

A flop with 9-15 outs are happening a lot..

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

However, how many times do you get this perfect flop? It's pretty rare.

A flop with 9-15 outs are happening a lot..

I was really only talking about the above hand you posted. Personally, I wouldn't push with just any ole draw (I used to do that and lost a lot of money on it. But I was a dumb newb then playing against loose passive players. Of course they would call and I'd lose. It's a great feeling tho when you win that way).

I'd especially not push with a 15 outer. I'd rather they call my raise and stick around. These are just my opinions. If you push with any 9+ out draw then I respect your aggressiveness. Not sure how it works in the long run, but I think it's gutsy. It's great if you play your sets the same way. With an unlimited bankroll, I might play that way.

I wouldnt go all in... i dunno. scare away potential callers, plus you hadnt really hit yet besides the pockets

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

This hand doesn't really matter, I just wanted some insights/comments about pushing draws (or generally 40-60 hands) in general. Fold equity and, to a lesser extent, table image interests me.

Anyway, my reasoning about this particular hand:

His UTG+2 6BB raise indicates AQ+/JJ+. His flop bet into 3 opps gives further evidence for an overpair.

Board: 4s 5h 6s
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.3939 % 38.59% 00.81% { 7h7s }
Hand 2: 60.6061 % 59.80% 00.81% { JJ+ }

EV=F x ( 102+231.8) + (1-F) x .394 x (463.6+49) - 231.8

Assuming F=.50, then EV is +35$, rake not included (break-even point is at 23%, it almost surely is higher than that, since overcards will fold).

Results: Call by QQ, which held up.

With hindsight, I probably should've raised to 120. That looks less like a semi-bluff, so FE increases.

Did anyone notice Villain could have put me on a trapping AA?

Pushing draws...

I've found that in an agressive NLHE ring game, often times I find that massive pots on the flop are often between a made hand and a big drawing hand. When I get it all-in with a huge draw, I have to be the one pushing (unless I'm getting the correct odds to call a push), the pot should already be large, and if the push being +EV depends on villain folding x% of the time, I have to be confident in that. In hold 'em, draws generally can only compete with made hands on the flop, with 2 cards to come. On the turn they are severely outmatched, which is why you don't want to get a sizeable part of your stack in on the flop, only to miss and be confronted with a large bet on the turn.

On to the actual hand: I like the play. Calling here is out of the question. 77 can only compete with an overpair with 2 cards to come. I wouldn't be strongly opposed to a fold, but I personally think a push is the best play here. It is most certainly a small edge, high variance play, but certainly +EV. To make plays like this you should probably have more than the standard ~15ish buyins because you will definately see some swings with this play.

I don't like that draw, not as many outs as you'd like to push. If you had the flush draw as well, maybe I'd do it.

not quite a pushed draw, but what about check-raising an inside straight flush draw big? it looks more like a made hand, i.e. set, 2 pair, have clean outs more often than not.
eg. from yesterday:
full table, 50NL on FT. min raise from mid position, two calllers to me in the SB with 57clubs. I call, BB calls. pf raiser has been fairly active, varying bet sizes, c-betting virtually every pot, getting little resistance. he had folded to a pf reraise by me earlier when he was the original raiser. i have not played much at all at this table.
flop comes 4c, 8c, Ah. I check, BB checks, pf raiser pots it, folds to me. I raise it to $25 ($20 more than his ~$5 bet). BB folds, pf raiser thinks for a while, then folds, asking if i hit a set.
would a push have been more or less likely to be called in this situation (assuming I have a $50 stack, opp has me covered)? if I lead the flop, does he smooth call or reraise, putting me to the test? he claimed to be laying down AK.

ps. sorry to hijack

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG ($136.80)
MP ($83.20)
Button ($19.05)
SB ($82.45)
Fnord ($108.40)

Preflop: Fnord is BB with 6, 4.
1 fold, MP calls $1, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($3) 3, 5, T (3 players)
SB checks, Fnord bets $3, MP calls $3, SB raises to $10, Fnord raises to $107.4, MP folds, SB calls $71.45 (All-In).

Turn: ($194.85) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($194.85) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $194.85

Results in white below:
Fnord has 6d 4d (high card, queen).
SB has 5s Tc (two pair, tens and fives).
Outcome: SB wins $168.90. Fnord wins $25.95.

please don't take offense, but i really dislike the push after the reraise. in a tournament it's the optimal play, but @ a cash table it seems to be supbar.the three of you limped preflop, meaning you can be holding any two cards. chances are that he's reraising behind a cold-call w/ something stronger than tptk or op, so you have to put him on two-pair or better here.

the pot is something like $20. sure your draw is a flip to virtually anything except flopped trips, but you're risking 3.5 times the pot when other plays may take it down w/o chancing a flip. consider: a minraise to 20 or even a re-raise to 30 gets the third player out even if he has the nut flush draw & makes your h-u opponent very seriously question the strength of his top two. did you really flop a set & are trying to extract maximum value out of it/defend against a flush draw? are you re-raising him w/ tp tk or bottom two? unless he's absolute trash, he has a hard decision to make. his options are:

a) he puts you on tp high kicker and/or bottom two & flat calls your re-bet to milk you, which gives you pot odds, plus you can rep the higher two-pair if a face card comes on the turn or the deck pairs 3, OR

b) he puts you on a set & calls out of frustration & checks on the turn/river (which gives you insane pot odds,) OR

c) he puts you on a set & folds thinking that he's basically drawing to 4 or 2 outs, OR

d) puts you on nothing except a draw & pushes in, which you will call anyway, b/c you're a flip anyhow.

anyhow, by simply re-raising him i just think you're just giving yourself a lot more opportunities to take down the pot than by simply pushing... i might've probably done the exact same thing, but i since i KNOW i'm a flip or better against almost anything out there, it seems odd not to exercise the other option here...

here is what I don't like about it:
any straight calls you here figuring that the nut straight doesn't play this way
then you're in trouble

it might be EV+, but there are better examples of semibluffing that at least ensure you're not drawing dead

Yeah, I'm a big fan of the check-raise semibluff, but no way am I getting all my money in the pot with the original poster's draw, if the guy pushes back. With fnord's, now that's a good bunch of outs, enough to even make you the favorite, so yeah, i'd get my money in there.

the only hand fnord hates is a higher flush draw like Ad4d since then his outs are severely limited

Originally Posted by BankItPayette

This feels like a play that will only get called from those that are beating you.

That's why we're making it. Many, many hands fold. The ones that don't we have a pretty solid chance to beat.

I think this play makes a lot of hands fold that are ahead. TT, JJ for instance.

Also, Bank, we can't showdown this hand "cheaply" as you mentioned, the bet on the flop is 50 bucks. It's all getting in by the river if the guy has an overpair that he's not letting go.

Lastly, whoever said that was a flop overbet, look again.

For the record, I put villian on an overpair, there's no way he's potting that with all those people in the pot with missed overcards. I think he's got a tough decision, and I don't know the level of play or the type of opponent. I assume he's not laying down here, which really makes this less of a semi-bluff. I think this play is much more effective against weak-tights or more solid players. You limped 77 to set and stack him, so I assume he's not letting go of his overpair.

Just my .02.