Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Quote Originally Posted by LawDude
Well, I posted a response (and I think you are right about how I played at least one of the hands). But the pattern seemed to be that I would get my chips in when I was ahead in the hand, and then get sucked out on.
Pre-flop, maybe. But in only 2 of the 6 hands you posted were you ahead of the eventual winner on the flop. In one of those hands, the opp had the correct odds to chase his flush so it's not really a suck-out, it's math.

In your fave hand, the hand where you had the straight flush draw, you were never ahead, pre or post.

This is the danger in playing loose games against poor opps where every hand goes to showdown. A pair, even top pair, is a marginal hand. Reverse implied odds are high. You have to ask yourself if you're adjusting correctly. And consider checking behind once in a while with marginal holdings, it's not like they're folding to your aggression anyway.
1. My straight flush draw was definitely ahead:

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 4s Td 9d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5s 5h 286 28.89 704 71.11 0 0.00 0.289
Qd Jd 704 71.11 286 28.89 0 0.00 0.711

It happened that the 5 of diamonds was the worst card in the deck for me.

2. I think you missed part of the point of the post. Some of those hands were coolers, and some were suckouts. All were examples of variance.

3. Here's my general philosophy in loose live limit games. You are right that I have little fold equity. But the flip side is that you can build extremely big pots when you are ahead and people are betting. And that's where your edge lies. The math says that you are a favorite against Villains' range, you get the chips in and hope they don't cactch the right card.

I can tell you about gigantic pots that I won with a pair of aces where I simply had everyone chasing and nobody caught anything.

I figure that when I am donking it in like that, the other players will wake up and tell me when I am beat. And they usually do.

But as I said, I think you are definitely right about at least one of the hands, and I am open to criticism on all the others. The point wasn't how great I played, it's how sharp variance can be.