hello. lately i have been considering preflop tendencies with the idea in mind that if i can form good "ABCD" ranges preflop, the margin for postflop error is less because the street before it was played well - obvious example is carelessly cbetting 100% of your range on 100% of flops. it's clear in this example why having such a weak range is going to cause lots of margin for error on turn cards. especially if your opponents are aware enough to exploit it. so in a way this ties in with what daven posted in "planning hands". it seems that every error on a previous street becomes compounded on a later one because the later the street, the bigger the pot, and the bigger betsizes can obviously be expected to be. no-one likes to find themselves on 5th street facing a check/shove UNLESS they already planned for what they would do against a c/shove and why they were going to do it. anyway, i have decided to do some preflop ABCD exercises against the tendencies of some opponents at my stakes for the sake of improvement. i will give you every piece of information i have on this guy so we can all be on a (relatively) level playing field. please critique/comment on the ranges i give him and how i form my range as a result. or on my whole thought process, or anything. lets talk ranges.

i have 2k hands on this guy, he's a not so good reg that plays exclusively 250bb deep tables and is a goldstar (at 10nl that's a decent amount of monthly volume imo). relevant stats are as follows:

villain is 26/10/2.2 (3bet)
PREFLOP
PFR by position is
EP 10%
MP 13%
CO 13%
BU 14%
SB 5%
BB 3%

fold to 3bet 7% (14)
hasn't 4bet

ATS by position
CO 31% (68)
BU 43% (53)
SB 27% (26)

POSTFLOP
cbets 63%
folds to cbet 44%
raise cbet 9%

checkraise 6%
donk 3%

aggression frequencies are
flop 24%
turn 29%
river 21%

cbets 52% of turns (29)
folds to 22% of turn cbets (37)

i also have the following notes on him (all prefaced with 10nl FR deepstack table):
- limp/calls suited aces any position
- C/C flop and turn w/top pair no kicker vs preflop aggressor
- B/C turn w/top pair top kicker on wet board, bloated pot (this was AJ on Jxxx, ie loses to overpairs)
- call overbet on turn w/2nd nut flush draw + 2 overs (this wasn't against me so maybe he had a read on the particular villain, but spew imo nonetheless)

ok so now i plan to run some different scenarios of playing against this guy preflop. 2 people limp to him in the CO, and he opens for 6x. i'm on the BU. the blinds are both 0/0 over an infinite sample and we'll say the limpers are like 26/14ish because those are common at the deepstack tables. what's my range?

first, what's his range? well, despite his ATS being 30% over a decent sample from this position, as best i know ATS is only when he OPENS, ie has been folded to, in this scenario he is raising after two guys who aren't superfish have limped to him. i'm more inclined to look up his PFR% by position for this one, which is 13%. which 13%? this guy likes to see flops, especially with "drawing" hands that have big hand potential like Axs, Kxs and suited connectors (hence his 26% total VPIP). based on my reads that he limp/calls Axs from any position, and the fact that he only opens 10% on average - i imagine his iso range is mostly for value - strong broadway hands and mid-high pairs. at this stage i'll guess 66+,ATs+,ATo+,KJs+,KJo+QTs+,QJo+,JTs. this comes to 13.1% in stove.

at this point i'd like to preface the rest of this post with "i become uncomfortable at this point, in that i don't really know how to best form my ranges, but i am going to attempt to do so for the sake of analysis and improvement etc etc"

now to me. my ranges (i think) should breakdown as follows:

Range A - profitable to 3bet for value vs this guy's 3bet calling range (he hasn't 4bet once over 2k hands)
Range B - profitable to smooth call vs this guy's opening range
Range C - hands which aren't strong enough to call, but have value as 3bet bluffs (preferably ones which weaken the strength of his calling range, ie have blockers to it)
Range D - the rest which i fold because it sucks to call or 3bet it.

i'll start with my 3betting for value range. while it is only a small sample where he has been 3bet and folded, it seems clear that he doesn't like doing it very much. i think 7% of a 14 sample means he's folded to 3bets once? (does fold to 3bet only count the times villain has raised, been 3bet, and folded? or just any time they folded their hand in a pot that has been 3bet before the action came to them preflop?) so he is continuing with a large percent of his opening range to a 3bet, i'll guess:

66+,ATs+,AJo+,+,KJs+,QTs+,JTs

because villain hasn't 4bet once over a reliable sample, it seems that a good 3bet for value range is one which has >50% equity versus his 3bet calling range. i'm going to say TT+,AQs+,AQo+, which has 60% versus his calling range. by 3betting this range i feel like i am exploiting his inability to fold to 3bets, simultaneously making the pot bigger while maintaining an equity edge in that pot (ie my range is stronger than his)

now i want to determine a calling range. because this guy has shown me that he has troubles folding top pair postflop, i think i can profitably call a pretty wide range of hands because my implied odds are pretty high. he also doesn't like folding to flop or turn cbets, meaning i can call with a wider range of hands expecting to exploit his postflop tendency to check/call lots. i should add in here that i auto-top up to 250bb and so does this guy, so we're always at least 250bb deep. now to the range. i definitely want to be calling all pairs 22-99 for obvious aforementioned reasons. now i consider it, my calling range should perhaps mostly be dominated by hands that make big/disguised hands postflop. i don't really feel like flatting AJo when villain's range contains 24 combinations of stronger aces, and only 4 combinations of worse aces. that seems odd that i don't feel like i can profitably call hands directly below the range i am 3betting for value (ie i'm 3betting AQo for value but don't feel comfortable flatting AJ), so i'd like to hear some peoples thoughts on that. anyway. i think i can definitely flat 34s-JTs because they can flop shitloads of postflop equity, i also want to add in 75s-QTs because they can flop quite well and deep-stack play tailors itself towards implied odds etc etc. seems really weird but i honestly don't want to be flatting many other hands than those.

as for 3bet "bluffing" i think we can find a far better person to be doing this against. this guys inability to fold against 3bets, or cbets on postflop streets make me want my 3bet range to be strong. wider than usual, but strong. anyway, as i said, please comment on my interpretation of his ranges (you have as much info in him as i do) and the way i went about planning my range based on the HEM numbers and the notes i have. or anything else that's interesting and beneficial for improving at poker.