PP cbets OOP thru each street, makes a set, but could be crushed by riv (2NL micro)

In MP, I raise a limper w/ 88, get callers, and flop overpair on a somewhat innocuous board that comes more dangerous on each street. I make standard cbets OOP on all the streets as I improve to a set on the turn, but possibly face a flush or straight by the river. (I don't have many hands or any reads on the villain, but his play has seemed pretty vanilla since I sat down.)

It's hard (at least for me) to put him on a hand. He didn't raise preflop so he could have a decent pair like QQ-99 (or even the other), and he didn't raise the flop so I'm counting out a set w/ 77 and 55. A7 or might have stuck around during the flop, and possibly Ax (maybe Kx) spades for the flush draw. Although I wasn't worried about 9x before the river, the 6 meant a straight got there. But I was kind of lost here. The villain could have just quietly let be keep betting into him once he made a flush on the turn (or straight on the river).

Uuug. I dunno. Was it spewy to keep betting? If so should I have just shoved on the turn since I was gonna stack him anyway? If I had checked, would it be an easy fold to a bet on the turn or river?


Full Tilt, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: $2.16 (108 bb)
MP1: $2.92 (146 bb)
Hero (MP2): $3.09 (154.5 bb)
MP3: $0.64 (32 bb)
CO: $1.40 (70 bb)
: $1.60 (80 bb)
BTN: $0 (0 bb)
SB: $2.20 (110 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8 8
CO posts BB OOP, MP1 calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.10, MP3 folds, CO calls $0.08, 3 folds, MP1 calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.33) 7 2 5 (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $0.30, CO calls $0.30, MP1 folds

Turn: ($0.93) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.76, CO calls $0.76

River: ($2.45) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.93 and is all-in, CO calls $0.24

Put CO all in on the turn (only has $1 behind). Give him a calling range based on board texture and actions on earlier streets, check your equity vs this range.

OK, so if he has QQ-99, A7, A5, any other Ax (both spades), PStove is saying I'm ~40% on the turn. Jeeesh. Am was I really that behind even w/ my set? Didn't see that at all.

Originally Posted by rowhousepd

OK, so if he has QQ-99, A7, A5, any other Ax (both spades), PStove is saying I'm ~40% on the turn. Jeeesh. Am was I really that behind even w/ my set? Didn't see that at all.

uh, that sounds really off,

how about this

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

7,128 games 0.002 secs 3,564,000 games/sec

Board: 7s 5s 2h 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.609% 77.61% 00.00% 5532 0.00 { 88 }
Hand 1: 22.391% 22.39% 00.00% 1596 0.00 { QQ-99, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, A9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, A7o, A5o }

looks like OP forgot to punch in the board in Pokerstove...

Originally Posted by daviddem

looks like OP forgot to punch in the board in Pokerstove...

Ha. Close. I entered one of the board cards wrong. Ooops! Ok, yes, 77% is more like it. I knew something was up. Thanks.