|
 Originally Posted by TheNatural
Unfortunately, that explanation is incorrect. You can call a pot-sized bet with a nut flush draw if you could see both the turn and river with no further betting.*
Example:
$10 pot, opponent goes all in for $10, you call with Axs and two of your suit on the board. You call.
You are a 1.86:1 underdog. 186 times you lose $10 = -$1860. 100 times you profit $20 = $2000. Net win is $2000-$1860 = $140. Profit per hand = $140/286 = about $0.50 per hand.
It's a wonder Tyson ever posts a profit. :P
*A common mistake for beginners is to ignore the betting that will occur on the turn. There is only a 4:1 chance for them to complete the flush on the turn, but they will often call a 1/2 pot bet getting only 3:1 on their money. If a blank falls on the turn, you can then bet them out of the pot yet still make profit from their bad call on the flop.
|