Pot odds question

Was thinking about this today and wanted to get some opinions. Numbers for bets will be in easy amounts to make calcs simplier and while I'm using a specific example I am asking the question in a general sense. This is also a question on poker theory so ignore things such as reads on opponents and other things outside of the actual cards and odds.

Say as an example you have As Ks as hole cards and flop comes 9d Js Qs, turn comes with 3c.

There are thus 21 outs for your hand with having the nuts if straight flush, flush or straight hits you and so need pot odds of 21:24 or roughly 1.14:1.

Given these odds, if the pot is $1000 and another player puts in an overbet of $10000 you are getting pot odds of 11:10 of 1.1 and thus below the required pot odds for the outs. The question thus is no matter what the outs, if pot odds are below card odds do you not call or is there a stage at which card odds negate the concern over pot odds (such as in this case where it's essentially a 50/50 chance on winning do you just ignore pot odds totally)?

Secondly, say the pot was $1000 again and the other player only bet $100 so you are getting pot odds of 10:1...in this case is it the case to raise an ammount such to get the pot odds back up around 1.14:1 if he calls...or more generally should any raise be such that a call will bring the pot to laying correct pot odds for the outs odds you currently have?

Not sure how you get 21 outs ? I count only 12 outs where I would be confident of winning

1 - Ten of spades for RF.
8 - Other spades for nut flush.
3 - Other tens for straight.

The 3 aces might also put you ahead but your opponent could be holding AQ, AJ, A9, AA, QQ, JJ, 99, KT, T8.

The 3 kings similarly may put you ahead but there are even more hands that have you beat.

Also note your flush would not be the absolute nuts if the 8 or 9 of spades hit. Ts9s or Ts8s respectively would give your opponent a straight flush 8,9,T,J,Q (admittedly this is unlikely)

Point is don't over estimate the number of genuine outs that you have. Otherwise you will be calling down far too many hands where you are drawing dead.

Facing a big bet on the river, 15 outs is about as good as it gets. eg you have KsTs with a Qs Js 3c board. (9 for the flush and 6 more for the straight). So with odds of 2:1 against, i am folding every time.

On your second point you call and see the river card for cheap. If you raise it gives your opponent the opportunity to re-raise big and you then no longer have the odds to call.

Originally Posted by Knytestorme

Say as an example you have As Ks as hole cards and flop comes 9d Js Qs, turn comes with 3c.

There are thus 21 outs for your hand with having the nuts if straight flush, flush or straight hits you and so need pot odds of 21:24 or roughly 1.14:1.

Given these odds, if the pot is $1000 and another player puts in an overbet of $10000 you are getting pot odds of 11:10 of 1.1 and thus below the required pot odds for the outs.

You have 9 cards that will give you the flush and 3 more tens to give you the straight. Thats only 12 outs. Add the 3 Aces and the 3 Kings as outs (if you think you will win with a pair) and then you have 18 outs. If you had Ks Qs and the board was Js Ts 8d 3c then you could possibly have 21 outs (open ended straight plus flush plus overcards). So lets pretend you do have 21 outs. The odds of making your hand is 25:21 (46 unseen cards).
So the <pot>:<bet you have to call> ratio must be bigger than that. 11:10 is lower than the odds the pot are offering you so you should fold (ignoring implied odds, opponent will fold on the river if one of your outs fall).

Originally Posted by Knytestorme

Secondly, say the pot was $1000 again and the other player only bet $100 so you are getting pot odds of 10:1...in this case is it the case to raise an ammount such to get the pot odds back up around 1.14:1 if he calls...or more generally should any raise be such that a call will bring the pot to laying correct pot odds for the outs odds you currently have?

Absolutely not. You will win 21 out of the 46 times, that is less than 50% of the time. If you raise him you are essentially getting 1:1 pot odds on the raise and you need to be a favourite for those odds to be profitable.

Example:
You can buy a ticket for $10 with a 1 in 10 chance of winning $150.
You can buy a ticket for $50 with a 1 in 10 chance of winning $230. (EDIT: sorry for the incorrect value - fixed now)
Which would you prefer?
When you raise you are decreasing the odds the pot is offering you, this is only a good thing if you are a favourite to win the hand.