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 Originally Posted by supahaole
Ok, back at it. Using spoons example, we know that the odds against us hitting are 4.9:1. In our situation our pot odds are 3:1. If every time we miss we lose $1, and we miss 4.9 times for every time we win, so we lose $4.90 for every $3.00 we win. We need an extra $1.90 when we hit to break even. Anybody?
The above is correct.
Your pot odds are 3:1 (not 4:1).
However, 3:1 pot odds = 25% pot odds.
You have 8 outs and there are 47 cards left.
Your odds of hitting your draw are (47-8)/8 = 4.85:1. (~4.9:1). This is the same as ~17% chance .
Since your chance of hitting is less than your pot odds percentage it is not a good call.
Your implied odds would require another $1.90 to make up the missing cash, or put another way, if you think that on the Turn Villain will call or bet $2 then your pot odds on the Flop become:
(3 + 2):1 = 5:1 = 16.6%. Since this is about the same as your ~17% chance to make your straight it is now worth while calling.
If Villain goes all-in on the flop with his miserable $1 to make the pot $3 then it is not worth calling because you won't be able to get the additional $1.90 you need out of him.
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