Pot Odds Help

Ok, I'm trying to understand pot odds and won't swear I've got it.

So this was during the FTR500 last night and someone pointed out that I should have called this hand due to pot odds...

Wait... converted the wrong hand... just a sec... ok this is the right hand...

So I am near the end of the FTR500 and don't want to be overly risky, but this hand came up and I looked at my cards, the player to my right goes all in, then I fold. People questioned my fold, but here was my logic:

Ah hell the trimmer screwed it up, here it is raw:

Full Tilt Poker Game #6304724878: The FTR500 (46876860), Table 2 - 150/300 Ante 25 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:53:17 ET - 2008/05/05
Seat 2: jolub (808)
Seat 3: Monty3038 (4,233)
Seat 7: dwarfman1990 (13,381)
Seat 8: renegades8 (4,706)
Seat 9: SuitsUs (18,372)
jolub antes 25
Monty3038 antes 25
dwarfman1990 antes 25
renegades8 antes 25
SuitsUs antes 25
jolub posts the small blind of 150
Monty3038 posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Monty3038 [Jh 6c]

So I've got nothing, just a Jack High, which is crap.

dwarfman1990 folds
renegades8 folds
SuitsUs folds

jolub raises to 783, and is all in
Monty3038 has 15 seconds left to act
Monty3038 folds
Uncalled bet of 483 returned to jolub
jolub mucks
jolub wins the pot (725)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 725 | Rake 0
Seat 2: jolub (small blind) collected (725), mucked
Seat 3: Monty3038 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: dwarfman1990 folded before the Flop
Seat 8: renegades8 folded before the Flop
Seat 9: SuitsUs (button) folded before the Flop[/b]

So I was 300 into a pot of lets say 1500 already, with needing 483 to call, which means the pot gave me roughly 3 to 1 odds, or spending 500 to win 1500. All I needed was a 33% chance to win to make it a good call, correct?

I don't think that J-6 off gives me those odds, so I folded... am I wrong here?

If you have 3:1 pot odds you need 25% to call not 33%. 3:1=1/4=25%

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

12,492,969,984 games 0.125 secs 99,943,759,872 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.666% 62.12% 01.55% 7760059056 193766784.00 { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 1: 36.334% 34.78% 01.55% 4345377360 193766784.00 { J6o }


---



He's probs wider than top 50% here anyway but that gives you an idea.

Hold it, folks. Let's get the math right.

It's not 3:1, it's almost exactly 2.5 to 1. So hero has 5 to 2 pot odds and therefore needs 2/7's equity (28.5%) or greater to bet.

I ran the stove with J6o against the Top 30% of hands:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.470% 66.54% 00.93% 5031205758 70566381.00 { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 32.530% 31.60% 00.93% 2389195944 70566381.00 { J6o }


And, of course, my point is the same as badgers' and the guys you were playin' with: it's hard for any hand to be worse than 2.5 to 1 dog against the range of a desperate mini stack who has less than 3BB left. Heck, you might even be ahead . And at this point in the game, it's a very small portion of the stack you have left. Time to take a chance, imo.

seriously he's probs shoving 100%, 30% is crazy tight and it's still a call

Ok, thanks for the responses... I'm trying not to be dense here...

Let me do the numbers myself here to see how I stack up to what you said...

Antes in the pot = 25 x 5 = 125 chips
SB = 150
BB = 300
So pot starts as 575 chips.

Ok, so now the SB raises another 633, making the pot 1208.

It costs me 483 to call.

1208/483 = 2.5 to 1 for pot odds, as Robb clarified, so that is my number. Ok, I see that 5 to 2 is the same as 2.5 to one, but where does the 2/7 equity come from?

The way I see it, I have 6 outs... hitting a J or 6. There is no straight draw for me pre-flop, no flush draw, so I have 6 cards out of 5 remaining, roughly 12% of the deck, with at least two opportunities that makes it about 24%?

So I have about a 24% chance, with about 5 to 2 pot odds, which I calculate to 40% needed to call... or am I missing something critical here?

Monty - first of all much and didn't mean to be an ass during the tourney.

2.5:1 = 28.6% (1/3.5) equity. Then you have to calculate your hand vs. a range in which pokerstove helps you out with. The ranges have been defined already.

I think I see your problem. You just divided 2/5 but that's not how you get to percentages. I hope you can see how I did it.

If 1:1 = 50% does it start to make sense?

3:1 does not equal 1/3, it is 1/4.

http://www.tightpoker.com/poker_odds.html

This is what I used and should help out.

Originally Posted by Monty3038

1208/483 = 2.5 to 1 for pot odds, as Robb clarified, so that is my number. Ok, I see that 5 to 2 is the same as 2.5 to one, but where does the 2/7 equity come from?

If you're getting 5 to 2 pot odds, you need to have at least a 2 in 7 chance of winning for the call to be profitable. Every 7 times this occurs, you'll need to win 2 while villain wins 5 (2 to 5). So, provided you feel you have a probability of 2/7 or 28.5% of winning, you should call.

How do we figure out what your probability of winning is? Well, the easiest way is to use PokerStove which makes equity estimates based on a range of hands villain could have and the specific cards Hero holds. The Stove has the nice feature that when you type "30%" (or whatever percentage you're interested in), it pops up the top 30% of hands based on their all-in equity. Which is precisely what we're interested in here.

So based on pot odds, we know we need AT LEAST 28.5% equity to call. Both Badger and I used PokerStove simulations to estimate Hero's equity. Both of agree Hero has at least 30% equity (or overall chance of winning) against conservative estimates of villain's potential holdings.

Originally Posted by Monty3038

The way I see it, I have 6 outs... hitting a J or 6. There is no straight draw for me pre-flop, no flush draw, so I have 6 cards out of 5 remaining, roughly 12% of the deck, with at least two opportunities that makes it about 24%?

We use PokerStove for this. Remember, even if he has AK, you can win by pairing your J or 6 as long as no A or K hits the board. You're not even that dominated. J6 has a 33% equity against AK, i.e. wins about 1/3 of the time.

Originally Posted by Monty3038

So I have about a 24% chance, with about 5 to 2 pot odds, which I calculate to 40% needed to call... or am I missing something critical here?

This is the odds vs. percentage misunderstanding that's so ubiquitous. When we say you have 5 to 2 pot odds, that's like having a pot of $500 and needing $200 to call a bet. You don't have to win 40% of the time because you're only putting in 28.5% of the total money. After your call, the pot is $500 + $200 = $700. Your bet is 2/7 of the total. So you only have to win 2 out of 7 times this occurs to break even.

In our example, say that 7 times in row you call $200. Twice,you win, taking down a $700 pot ($1,400 total). You've broken even, despite losing 5 of 7 showdowns.

Originally Posted by kmind

Monty - first of all much and didn't mean to be an ass during the tourney.

2.5:1 = 28.6% (1/3.5) equity. Then you have to calculate your hand vs. a range in which pokerstove helps you out with. The ranges have been defined already.

I think I see your problem. You just divided 2/5 but that's not how you get to percentages. I hope you can see how I did it.

Hey, it's poker, if you can't take the heat get out of the kitchen

Thanks for the figure, it makes more sense now that I have to add it all in for the percentage... now let me read the rest...

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by Monty3038

1208/483 = 2.5 to 1 for pot odds, as Robb clarified, so that is my number. Ok, I see that 5 to 2 is the same as 2.5 to one, but where does the 2/7 equity come from?

If you're getting 5 to 2 pot odds, you need to have at least a 2 in 7 chance of winning for the call to be profitable. Every 7 times this occurs, you'll need to win 2 while villain wins 5 (2 to 5). So, provided you feel you have a probability of 2/7 or 28.5% of winning, you should call.

How do we figure out what your probability of winning is? Well, the easiest way is to use PokerStove which makes equity estimates based on a range of hands villain could have and the specific cards Hero holds. The Stove has the nice feature that when you type "30%" (or whatever percentage you're interested in), it pops up the top 30% of hands based on their all-in equity. Which is precisely what we're interested in here.

So based on pot odds, we know we need AT LEAST 28.5% equity to call. Both Badger and I used PokerStove simulations to estimate Hero's equity. Both of agree Hero has at least 30% equity (or overall chance of winning) against conservative estimates of villain's potential holdings.

Originally Posted by Monty3038

The way I see it, I have 6 outs... hitting a J or 6. There is no straight draw for me pre-flop, no flush draw, so I have 6 cards out of 5 remaining, roughly 12% of the deck, with at least two opportunities that makes it about 24%?

We use PokerStove for this. Remember, even if he has AK, you can win by pairing your J or 6 as long as no A or K hits the board. You're not even that dominated. J6 has a 33% equity against AK, i.e. wins about 1/3 of the time.

Originally Posted by Monty3038

So I have about a 24% chance, with about 5 to 2 pot odds, which I calculate to 40% needed to call... or am I missing something critical here?

This is the odds vs. percentage misunderstanding that's so ubiquitous. When we say you have 5 to 2 pot odds, that's like having a pot of $500 and needing $200 to call a bet. You don't have to win 40% of the time because you're only putting in 28.5% of the total money. After your call, the pot is $500 + $200 = $700. Your bet is 2/7 of the total. So you only have to win 2 out of 7 times this occurs to break even.

In our example, say that 7 times in row you call $200. Twice,you win, taking down a $700 pot ($1,400 total). You've broken even, despite losing 5 of 7 showdowns.

Thanks Robb this helps... I don't use PokerStove much, but I'm trying to figure it out. The 30% goes into which field for setting their percentage of called hands, i'm not in front of it (at work now) so I am winging it... there is a field for known cards and equity, but the equity is what it calculates right?

Originally Posted by Monty3038

Thanks Robb this helps... I don't use PokerStove much, but I'm trying to figure it out. The 30% goes into which field for setting their percentage of called hands, i'm not in front of it (at work now) so I am winging it... there is a field for known cards and equity, but the equity is what it calculates right?

Here's a screen shot of how to put in a percentage and have PokerStove return a range:



Just enter J6 in Player 2's field, hit evaluate, and you're rollin'