pot odds again

Profit and my own amateurish analysis of my play, suggest I'm becoming a far stronger player than I was say 3 months ago.

I'm seriously interested in improving my game and reaching my potential as a poker player, well, because in all honesty, I'm getting on a bit in years - and I can't hang around!
If I want to be anything other than a casual player, who wins.. some of the time, then I better get to learning.

I've got the jist of pot odds and I try to play as correctly as I know how to.

I know this will have been covered in other postings but in an attempt to make things clearer to myself, since I'm never too sure of my own mathematical musings, I typed something down in a text file. Am I correct in my maths and thinking?
This is what I typed...



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9 outs
(on the Turn)

9/47 x 100 = 19.15% So the odds are 19.15% chance of hitting one of the outs.

Then,
100 - 19.15 = 80.85

80.85/19.15 = 4.22

So the odds, expressed as a fraction are 4.22 to 1


From that, if the pot was at $422 and I had to put $100 in to call. I would be getting the correct odds to make my call.

And if, for example, my call costs $1, to enter a $5 pot. With 9 outs, I'm getting good odds.

6 outs
(on the Turn)


6/47 x 100 = 12.77% So the odds of hitting one of the outs is 12.77%

Then,
100 - 12.77 = 87.23

and 87.23/12.77 = 6.83

So the odds, expressed as a fraction are 6.83 to 1


From that, if the pot was at $683 and I had to put $100 in to call. I would be getting the correct odds to make my call.

And if, for example, my call costs $1, to enter a $7 pot. If I have 6 outs, then I'm getting good odds.




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7letters

[quate]Oh and one more question...with correct odds, would it always be correct to make the call?[/quate]

As usual in poker - it depends.

In a ring game this is pretty much correct, but you do have to take into account how many people may act after you. If there are 5 people who see the flop, one bets, one folds and the action is on you, then you may have the pot odds to call now but you will be raised and reraised behind and lose those 'odds'.

It may also be correct to call sometimes even if you dont have pot odds based on implied odds.

And finally, in tournament play pot odds is just one of many factors you have to consider before calling/betting/raising, and it is definitly not the most important one

The only time it would not be correct to make the call with correct pot odds is when the hand you are drawing to, does not put you ahead. Say you have AK and your opponent has 99 and has flopped a set. You think he just has top pair, so you calculate pot odds for your two overcards and you find you have pot odds to call his bet. When you hit your Ace on the river, you find out that in fact you did not have 6 outs, you needed runner runner aces or kings, etc.

When considering a call, always put your opponent on a range of hands. Then figure out if the hand you are drawing too will beat his (almost automatic for straights and flushes). Then calculate your outs and the pot odds. (Note: if he does have top pair, and you have a straight flush draw with two overs, you have 9 + 6 + 6 = 21 outs, but if your opponent has a set, you only have 15 outs)

I'm still a beginner so I'm not quite sure how to use implied pot odds or reverse pot odds. Hope that helps

[quate]The only time it would not be correct to make the call with correct pot odds is when the hand you are drawing to, does not put you ahead[/quate]

The discussion on whether to call or not to call based on pot odds assumes that you have counted your outs correctly. In yuor example he needs runner-runner cards, so he has 'outs to outs', the pot will have to be astronomical with a minimal bet in order to call it.
How do you figure out how many outs you have is a totally different discussion. Your goal is to narrow down the opponent's hand as much as possible, although usually you will end up with a range of hands, which practically means you consider some outs 'tainted' and count them as 1/2 outs, 1/3 outs etc..

I actually edited my posting before I saw your replies. After re-reading my question ,about it being always correct to call when you have correct odds, I realised that it was a bit of a daft question.. of course it isnt correct to call if you can't win the hand.

Thanks for the replies and I appreciate your points.

Are my calculations about pot odds correct?

your calculations are good from a probabilistic standpoint. as an engineer, i like to find the easy way, so in order to approximate your odds on the battlefield, use the 2 multiplier rule. for every card left in your draw (turn + river in hold em + omaha) multiply by 2

ex: you have 9 outs to the flush on the flop, you want to know your approx. percentage to hit by the river you multiply 9 * 4 = 36%. If you want to know your percentage for only one card, you multiply by 2

Originally Posted by TLR

[quate]The only time it would not be correct to make the call with correct pot odds is when the hand you are drawing to, does not put you ahead[/quate]

The discussion on whether to call or not to call based on pot odds assumes that you have counted your outs correctly.... [/quate] I mean /quote

This is the beginner's circle, and I just wanted to explain theres more to pot odds than counting outs and multiplying by 4. You have to make sure you have good outs.
e.g. If its a multi-pot and I have a low pocket pair drawing to a set, I make sure tripping up doesn't complete any straight draws and I also make sure if the board has two of the same suit, that one of my 2 outs isn't in that suit, before calling a bet.

Originally Posted by 7letters

I actually edited my posting before I saw your replies. After re-reading my question ,about it being always correct to call when you have correct odds, I realised that it was a bit of a daft question.. of course it isnt correct to call if you can't win the hand.

Thanks for the replies and I appreciate your points.

Are my calculations about pot odds correct?

Yes your math is fine.

[quate]This is the beginner's circle, and I just wanted to explain theres more to pot odds than counting outs and multiplying by 4. [/quate]
No arguement here, we both basically say the same thing
1. Count your outs correctly, putting your opponent on hand range and taking into account tainted outs
2. Based on those outs calcualte your pot odds
3. Pot odds is one of the factors to consider when calling a bet, it is a major factor in ring game, a lesser factor in tournaments, but by no means it is the only factor

7 letters, I actually have the odds chart expressed as a ratio because i find it much easier to understand that way.
It's available in ratio form on several sites on the internet, i would give the url but I'm not sure if that's frowned upon on here. try googling pot odds ratio

TLR thanks for your responses. The idea of counting your outs on the basis of what you think your opponent may be holding, is something I don't usually consider when I'm in play. I can see how this is now a more accurate way of calculating your outs. I'm not sure if I'm yet capable of working out the odds with those added 1/2 and 1/3 outs included in the workings- but I know this makes sense.

Thanks again for all the replies in the thread. They do make sense.
I suppose it's really a case of memorising the odds, then they are easy to hand when needed?


7letters

Easy way of counting percent chance with 1 card to come.

# of Outs x 2 = %chance


e.g. 9 outs -> 18% chance.


(If there are 2 cards to come then use Outs x 4)

This is only an approximation but it gets the job done pretty well.
I would suggest memorising all of the common ones like 4flush, 4straight, set-> full house etc, overcards ->top pair

The approximation is better for when some of your "outs" are no good.

For example: You hold 78
The flop comes down 6A5

Your will make your straight with any 9 or 4 but the 9 and 4 will very likely make someone else a flush.
You do not have the usual 8 outs you get with an OESD. Instead you have 6. You also havnt memorized the % chance of hitting a 6 outer so you x2 and decide there is a 6 x 2 = 12% chance you will hit your draw on the turn.

easier way to convert (cards which help)/(cards left) thing

eg. 9 outs exampe

47/9 = 5.22 => 5.22 - 1 = 4.22

fraction odds - 4.22 to 1

Thanks...all makes sense and some much easier ways to work out the odds. Doing well at NL right now...if only I could stop losing at Limit.

Cheers

7letters