Possibly spew. I feel good, but should I?

Ok, so I'm running an experiment with more than normal tables to see how I adjust to it and what kind of mistakes I make. Previously I have noted that when I run more tables I make less bored/spewy plays where I inflate pots despite reaching the point where I should know that if more money goes in that means I'm behind.

As a result I'm quickly racking up hands on players who are multi-tabling without having time to take notes or reads as I'm just adjusting to the much faster action. Luckily I have a few stats to fall back on as this story is an example of. This makes my style more weak/tight nitty taggy and less laggy than I normally aim for.

In this situation I'm sitting in a nitfest. The only looser player is the BB who has been playing 33/30 or so and who is the one I would prefer to play against when I make my preflop raise, considering that the others all fold way too much preflop.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

BB ($25)
UTG ($25)
Hero (MP) ($25.35)
CO ($27.30)
Button ($33.30)
SB ($23.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J, 8
1 fold, Hero bets $1, CO calls $1, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.35) J, 5, 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, CO calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.35) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3.75, Hero calls $3.75

River: ($12.85) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $5, CO raises to $21.05 (All-In), Hero calls $14.10 (All-In)

Total pot: $51.05 | Rake: $2.50

Note that due to my scattered attention at the time some of the moves are auto-pilotish and without not much reflection. Particularly pre-flop and flop.

Pre-flop: Nitty table (lots of fold equity), looser player in the blinds I'll have position on if he calls. This puts J8s as one of the weakest hands in my opening range - and I open. My image is good (nitty). Called by the wrong person and know I'm going to be playing OOP

Flop: I hit, there's a flush draw. Cbet seems justified. Bet size to semi-price out the flush draws. Auto-pilotish decision.

Turn: Hmm, what happened here - he quickly called. Guess I can't push my weak top pair - especially as I hate playing OOP - so I check and prepare to fold to pressure. He bets and I'm ready to fold except I feel... exploited.

Why would I feel exploited I pause and consider. Auto-c-bet, called, give up turn. Seems exploitable. But would he be exploiting me? What do I know about him? In my multi-table experiment I've swiftly racked up almost 200 hands on him. He seems taggy with stats of 18/14/2.6. But is he adjusting? My image should be solid trending towards nitty as I have been stretched attention wise and folding a lot. Ok stop. Multi-tabling, lots of hands, taggy stats - either a winning player or someone who tries to play intelligently. That means probably adjusting. Do I have any indicators? First, steal is 26 vs PFR of 14. So positionally aware. Fold SB and BB to steal are 88 and 92. Definitely positionally aware. Cbet % is 89. Aggro frequency per street is 63/50/50. Definitely knows that it's the betting that gets the money when people fold. 3bet is 3%, so I guess JJ has to be in his PF calling range along with the obvious 55 and 22. But, coincidentally, on tiny tiny sample size his fold to cbet is 50%. In the moment I don't reflect too much over the sample size, but conclude that this is a villain who probably does know to call cbets with a weak range of hands and take it away on the turn when the cbettor does not continue his aggression.

So could he be floating? Yes. I think so. What does his bet size tell me? Oh, it's saying "Go away". That's why I felt exploited. Or rather, there are bet sizes he would not pick so much if he is bluffing, but he would pick more often if he was trying to get value out of a weaker made hand from me. Like half pot. Or 5/6 pot. This particular bet size could easily have both value, semi-bluffs and bluffs in it. But since some value hands might have been influencing his bet size decision in favour of "callable" bets and there are so few real value hands in his range anyway I allow myself to partly discount value and give some more credence to bluffing and semi-bluffing hands.

If he only folds to 50% of cbets he could be calling flop pretty wide. Like any overcards, flush draws, backdoor draws and even some air. And when he has nothing much, how often will be try to take the pot away on the turn? Probably pretty often. So, I conclude that this could very well be an occasional play of a float and steal on the turn, making his range really really wide - and pretty weak. So I call - without making a plan for the river.

River: I've decided he can have lots of weak hands in his range. I think he's capable of putting on the pressure if I reveal weakness by checking. My decisions have been consistent with the kind of hand I'm holding - a weak made hand. I think this might be an occasion to use a defensive/blocking type bet. However, I don't want to bet 1/4 to 1/3 pot ($3-$4) because I think it seems too weak. I'd like to perpetuate the illusion that I could be betting for value, so I pick a size of $5 which I feel should seem more like a value bet. He shoves and I want to fold.

I feel like I've just told him I'm betting for value and he still wants to get allin. Chill a second I say to myself. Be sure. River... didn't complete anything. If he had a spade draw he would have missed. And could as the saying goes - have bluffed with his missed draw. While I think I'm projecting value, I have no idea how he reads me. He might read me exactly right - that I have a hand that I'm trying to get to showdown without getting all in. As in, a hand that can't stand a raise.

Is he really shoving for value? Doesn't his shove say "Go away" much more than it's saying "please call"? I still think his range has lots of air in it. Lots and lots. And only very little in the way of nut hands. All that's left is to ask myself - do I have a bluff catcher? Well yes. Yes, I do. At this point in time, does have more than 30ish% hands in his range that I beat (bluffs). Almost certainly. So I call.

I think as played its fine, he is definitely going to show up with missed draws/overs pretty often, but I like keeping up the facade of weakness by c/c the river since he's likely to throw a bet at it one more time. Although your smallish size might have induced something.

i really like PF give table dynamics. flop feels like a c/c to me to be honest. he doesn't fold anything better and the only worse he calls with (66-TT) would check back flop/call turn anyway, and he's raising some worse if he's shown aggression before.

as played, c/c'ing turn with the intention of c/c'ing river doesn't seem too bad, but i tend to just fold and never expect an 18/14 to be exploiting me very often.

as played, i really don't like river. i think he'll have a slow-played set more often than a whiffed FD here because he's a multi-tabling 18/14. you say that the river bet was a blocking bet, but i would only do this as an inducer for whiffed draws to shove here 'cause it's not like he's gonna show up with 66.

basically, my problem with the hand, is that it seems far too defensive for me against an 18/14. yeah, he's alive postflop, but most of that has prolly been because he always sees the flop with a strong range. exploit this guy by stealing a lot of buttons, being very aggressive with your D and C ranges on the flop and getting to showdown with hands that aren't TPTK+ and, of course, folding...A LOT!

Thanks for the comments guys.

Pre-flop I'm happy with too and flop is debatable. I'm not confident c/c is really better because there's a flush draw out there and I'd risk giving free cards to the flush draw. The flop decision was auto-piloted, so I'm full willing to accept it's not optimal. Maybe c/c would be better and then give up if the flush completes and he continues betting.

I didn't think an 18/14 as someone who exploits either, until I reviewed some of his other stats and figured he must be exploiting at least some of the time.

It's true that the river bet may have induced a bluff. It's just one of a couple of problems I have with my play. I called the turn deciding it would be a mistake to fold but without making a plan for the river - I made my small bet considering mainly what would happen if he folded or called (that it would be ok for me either way) and did not so much consider what range he would raise with. When he did raise, I did think that my still weak-looking line could have induced a bluff but the problem with my play is that I should have considered it before making my bet and therefore (if I chose to bet) made the bet deliberately to induce. That way I wouldn't have a tough decision when he raises me but I could just snap it off because I had successfully induced a bluff as I had intended.

He'll maybe have a set more often on the river than a whiffed FD since there are still only a limited number of whiffed FDs available in his range (AKs/AQs/KQs may be a complete list) - but I didn't rule out smaller pairs (particularly 33) as well as just plain overs like AKo (maybe with a spade for a backdoor FD on the flop)

I state here that my reason for the river bet was blocking/defensive. I'm not pretending that it was WISE to bet for that reason. If this is the wrong kind of situation to use a blocking/defensive bet feel free to call me an idiot (and tell me why it's wrong). Betting small to induce bluffs from missed draws/overs and get more value from mid-pairs 66-88/TT seems to make more sense from a "reasons to bet" perspective than "blocking".

But yeah, my hand should likely be a B hand on the flop and I should instead be pushing my C range hands on this flop. I agree with the exploitation suggestions, where getting to showdown is of course always more problematic when OOP and I do fold a lot. On the turn and river both my first and second thoughts were to fold, but then I came up with (I think good) reasons not to.

Originally Posted by Erpel

Preflop: Hero is MP with J, 8
1 fold, Hero bets $1

I stopped reading here


Edit: Ok I read the whole post. Did you bother putting this nit tag on a range, or did you over concern yourself with the possibility of someone "outplaying you"?

Neither of the two players stats you've given tell me you should be opening as weak as J8s this early.

When this guy calls pre its alot of broadways, pairs, suited aces etc. When he calls flop, what did you put him on. When you check/called turn what did you put him on. when you bet/called shove spewed on the river...

what did you put him on?


meh, as played flop is ok-ish. Turn I think you'd rather bet because you are still ahead of all of his draws and one pair hands worse than a J, plus you can expect him to start raising his monsters like sets, two pair.

River is just wtf are you doing? check/call is the only line you can take here imo.

i like your idea of posting in detail your logic and reasoning on every street and how you attempted to deduce information about your opponent. i can't see a multi-tabling nit shoving over you on the river here with any hand which doesn't have you crushed. if he is the "clever" type of nit who likes to float and has high turn AF's, most of them in my experience dont bluff bricked rivers unless you let them (ie if you checked to him). i honestly cant see much merit in bettin this river at all, as he doesnt call with anything that you beat that i can think of, or fold many better hands.