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I don't want to isolate myself against the top of his range, if i just call i keep in hands like AJ and KQ which i'm doing well against. If i 3bet i'm going to get a shitload of folds which will be +EV especially with blockers to AK AA QQ but when he continues i'm not going to win very often.
This could be retarded thinking on my part though.
Villains open from SB range: {22+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo} = 117 combo's total.
Let's assume he folds {22-TT, AJ, KQ} to a 3-bet, that's 78 combo's.
That's 66.66% of the time.
The pot is 0.21 when he raises, do we take out the BB from our bet size i'm not sure? So if we 3-bet to 0.40 are we only betting 0.35 because our 0.05 was already in? I think that's right.
So when we 3-bet to 0.40 then, 0.35/(0.35+0.21) = 0.625
So 3-betting AQ here is +EV in a vacuum.
What's interesting is if i remove TT from his folding range, he's only folding 61.5% so this 3-bet as a pure bluff with no equity would be -EV, but we have equity vs his calling range so it's probably borderline +EV.
Also if he folds AJ and we give him a calling range of {JJ-TT,AQs,AQo} we have 45% equity if we add AJ in we have 55% equity so does this 3-bet now become for value?
The more PP's i include into his calling range the lower our equity gets, we have 49% vs a calling range of {JJ-22,AQs-AJs,AQo-AJo} also since he's not folding anywhere near enough a 3-bet pure bluff would now be -EV, but i'd expect him to play most PP's fit-fold post-flop so he'd probably fold to a lot more c-bets.
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