Poker Stats

What the hell? I've been on a bad run lately, so I thought I'd check my pokertracker stats.

Seems most of my suited connectors (1 gapped or straight connectors) are profitable, but I've been losing HUGE pots lately on QQ, KK, AA, stuff like that. Moreso, I used to show a profit for EVERY one of my pp's, but no longer. Now 3-4 of them are in the red.

And a good 4/5's of my profit are off three hands: QJs, 99, and 44. This is over a little more than 13,000 hands. What does this say to y'all?

I have a VPIP of 26%, though lately, it's probably been more like 30-35% because of all the suited connectors I play in position. I've got an average of 6 BB's per 100 hands, a won $ at showdown % of 46.61, and aggression factor of 1.27.

But my bankroll has been hovering around the same level for something like 40-50 sessions right now, and I'm catching some pretty good hands, like sets and and the occasional happening of quads and stuff. I haven't caught a flush or straight in a little while that hasn't lost, but that shouldn't make this much of a difference, should it? Over the last few weeks, I've been steadily losing lots and lots of days with maybe one day of huge winnings which don't quite cover my losses.
For example, yesterday, I dumped $1000, $600 of which on tilt after some guy caught a flush on me, and because both my QQ's lost HUGE pots. But the day before, I went up $700 because that same fish which caught that flush against me was calling me with anything, including 10 high.

Anyway, this is just kinda getting frustrating and I was wondering if y'all could give me some input as to any holes you may be seeing? I was thinking about lowering my VPIP by not playing suited connectors anymore, but then I looked at pokertracker and it says that I'm in the green for all my suited connectors, so wtf?

Thanks all.

Fold AA, KK and QQ obviously.

JK. I don't know.

Your aggressin looks too low.

Your w$sd looks a little bit low so maybe youre paying off too many hands?

Im stuck in the exact same place you are

anybody else?

13000 hands is nothing, i wouldnt pay attention to any pokertracker stats till at least 100k hands, even that is a fairly small sample.

Originally Posted by melinda27

13000 hands is nothing, i wouldnt pay attention to any pokertracker stats till at least 100k hands, even that is a fairly small sample.

Are you serious? I can't tell.

13,000 hands I think is a pretty substantial sample size. That means I should have been dealt most hands something like 30x now...

Is that aggression including preflop? If so, that's actually not too bad...If not, that's horridly passive.

I think of anything over 10k as being a decent sample...but part of that is likely because I'm at 15k and my stats aren't really varying a whole lot anymore.

Originally Posted by ensign_lee

Originally Posted by melinda27

13000 hands is nothing, i wouldnt pay attention to any pokertracker stats till at least 100k hands, even that is a fairly small sample.

Are you serious? I can't tell.

13,000 hands I think is a pretty substantial sample size. That means I should have been dealt most hands something like 30x now...

fairly serious....50K at the minimum. It takes a while to let the #'s play out.

edit: i try to play about 750-1000 hands a day and I can run good or bad for 2 weeks at a time easily, but over the course of a month/6 weeks it all ends up evening out to give you a real idea of how well you play

How many tables are you playing at once to do 1k hands per day?

I'm all feeling like a novice again suddenly

usually 4 or 5...i play 4 on party poker but occasionally i'll mix in a MTT on pokerstars with school being out i'm literally just sitting at home from the time i get back from the gym till my fiance gets home from work

Originally Posted by JeffreyGB

Is that aggression including preflop? If so, that's actually not too bad...If not, that's horridly passive.

I think of anything over 10k as being a decent sample...but part of that is likely because I'm at 15k and my stats aren't really varying a whole lot anymore.

including preflop

Originally Posted by JeffreyGB

Is that aggression including preflop? If so, that's actually not too bad...If not, that's horridly passive.

I think of anything over 10k as being a decent sample...but part of that is likely because I'm at 15k and my stats aren't really varying a whole lot anymore.

Since I started using Poker Tracker I was unsure what a 'minimum' number of hands would be to get an extremely accurate stats report. I did a search on 'standard AND deviation' on this forum and wasn't finding much in terms of recommendations for minimum number of hands before you can have confidence in Poker Tracker's results. Then I headed over to Poker Tracker's forum and did a similar search and found this gem:

http://www.pokertracker.com/forum/vi...dard+deviation

Pay attention to Vern's postings in that topic, and follow his links to long explanations. He claims:

Originally Posted by Vern

202.5k hands with typical standard deviation (15BB/100 hands) to determine that your true win rate is within +/- 1BB of your apparent win rate with ~99% confidence.

Apparently I've got a way to go to even get to his 50k suggestion for general accuracy...[/url]

Here's the answer from someone who doesn't have pokertracker. Breaking even=learning or bad run of cards. Winning=lucky fucking fish or playing well. Losing money=sit at my table.

And seriously...raise the aggresion severely.

Originally Posted by ensign_lee

Originally Posted by melinda27

13000 hands is nothing, i wouldnt pay attention to any pokertracker stats till at least 100k hands, even that is a fairly small sample.

Are you serious? I can't tell.

13,000 hands I think is a pretty substantial sample size. That means I should have been dealt most hands something like 30x now...

You are looking at a trend in your playing, no? Not a total picture. Statistically, big numbers are good for analysis, but PT doesn't do much to show your change over time. You are looking for a leak, a recent change, so your sample size is reasonable, though small enough for some odd stats to show up here and there.

Your high pocket pair variance is troubling. Could it be you are "mailing it in" with an forum advised standard size preflop bet, counting on your top pair and not pushing out the chasers after the flop? Or are you overbetting preflop, telegraphing your hand, and either taking small pots or losing big ones (to trips)? Are you slow playing them, giving them too much value? I don't know what you are doing now, but I think you could change your game here, because this is one weird stat.

Originally Posted by JeffreyGB

How many tables are you playing at once to do 1k hands per day?

I'm all feeling like a novice again suddenly

I play 3000 hands a day right now, and I"m going to college full time

Originally Posted by melinda27

Originally Posted by ensign_lee

Originally Posted by melinda27

13000 hands is nothing, i wouldnt pay attention to any pokertracker stats till at least 100k hands, even that is a fairly small sample.

Are you serious? I can't tell.

13,000 hands I think is a pretty substantial sample size. That means I should have been dealt most hands something like 30x now...

fairly serious....50K at the minimum. It takes a while to let the #'s play out.

edit: i try to play about 750-1000 hands a day and I can run good or bad for 2 weeks at a time easily, but over the course of a month/6 weeks it all ends up evening out to give you a real idea of how well you play

This all depends on what you're looking at. If your trying to determine if you're a winning player or not then 13k hands is just sufficient to give you a good idea (although it could still be way off because of a long string of unusual luck), but it won't tell you an accurate bb/hour. If you're trying to determine if you are seeing too many flops then it's overkill. If you are trying to see if you are aggresive enough then it's also large enough as long as you're not trying to fine tune to an exact number.

However, it is not even close to being large enough to determine which hands are profitable. How a particular hand preformed after being dealt only 30 times tells you nothing. You could bust your pocket kings just twice and that could put you in the red.