God, for some reason my brain just doesnt work for poker maths. Can someone walk me through not only the answer, but how to calculate this spot:


Early

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
BTN JUplay ($45.99)
SB Hero ($49.00)
BB velkaman ($83.05)

Pre-flop: ($1, 4 players) Hero is SB
Hero calls $0.25, 1 fold, OMGNevilleAitken raises to $2.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($5.50, 2 players)
OMGNevilleAitken bets $4, $4 to Hero ($46.5)?



HH is a bit messed up, dunno why. Villain covers, and I think I posted a SB from CO or something, dunno why.

If I raise flop, I pretty much price myself into a pot odds call for my draw if he shoves. So obviously he needs to fold to my raise enough times to make raising the right play here. For instance, if he never folds then raising here is no different to him open shoving flop and me calling (obviously a mistake), likewise if he always folds then raising is always best, so theres a point at which is 0EV and if he folds more than that I should raise, and if he folds less than that I probably should just fold.

Just the maths, I already know the preflop stuff is pretty poor, just using it as an example.

[edit] actually I think I'm wrong in this case that we'd have odds to call (depending of course on how much I raised to), but for the sake of the exercise lets assume that was the case, I always call a push.