Quote Originally Posted by asdpikas
Quote Originally Posted by Mezza Morta
If we have 15 outs, and a call will break us even, then is it truly a bluff?
lets do the math
100 hands
if villain folds if we bet, figuring we never bluff
30% of the time we make our hand = 30 wins = +$6000
10% of the time we bluff = 10 wins = +$2000
60% of the time we c/f = 0 wins =+$0

we win $8000

if villains calls always
30% of the time we make our hand = 30 wins = +$9000
10% of the time we bluff = 10 losses= -$1000
60% of the time we c/f = 0 wins =+$0

we win $8000

NOTE: This is not break-even, in the sense that we win $0, we win either way, its breakeven in the sense that whatever villain chooses, he loses the same.

Game theory just randomizes our bluffing and ensures our profit. If we were to bluff too much, opponent would be correct to call always. If we were to never bluff opponent would be correct to always fold. If we bluff the "correct" amount of times randomly, opponent has no correct option.
Excellent reply sir.