lotta math there. Too much for me and I am a math geek of sorts.

The luck is in how the cards are dealt.

The skill is in betting and folding.

Fold more often when luck shows as bad

Bet more often when luck comes up good

majorly oversimplified, but the skill aspects (betting and folding) are there to overcome the luck aspect (what you are dealt)

Regarding the previous post, Mike Caro's comment that "some people are just luckier than others" i think that is BS. It's just a matter of your observations of this player limitting "sample size". If people get lucky when you are observing them but are on downswings of luck when you are not, your "data set" or population is skewed towards what you see.