Playing Against Drawing Hands

I've seen a lot of people with some pretty messed up thinking lately in BC about situations where you're playing against drawing hands, and I just figured I'd mention something to perhaps get at least a bit of discussion started on the topic.

Suppose in a 10nl hand you have A K out of position against A 3 on a board of K 9 6 5, the pot is 24bb and you both have 90bb behind.

Which is the better bet size here, 12bb or 30bb? Ignore the intermediate values and just consider these two. What do you think?

I think this is an easy question... which probably means I've got the wrong answer...

I vote for 12 because that means he's only getting 3:1 to call, and is 4.75:1 against (I think something like that...) to his flush on the river.

Betting the 30bb overbets the bot IMO, and at $10NL, he's more than likely to call regardless. The larger bet is very unlikely to increase my chance of pushing him off of the hand. So when the scare club hits on the river, I've got a bigger pot to bet into to test whether he was indeed on the flush draw and I'm going to end up losing more money.

So... 12bb takes the odds away. Means (assuming he only calls), that I can go with a 18-20bb river bet if the 3rd club hits and fold to a raise.

without the variables id consider, you bet 12bbs because he'll chase and lose lots of the time. And when he hits and donks out we can fold if we dont get a price worth showing for.
Also, leaving him something behind in his stack gives him the oppertunity to bluff some of it off on the river if he misses anyway, although id say thats more important in bigger games/when he has nothing left on river.

Originally Posted by sarbox68

I think this is an easy question... which probably means I've got the wrong answer...

I vote for 12 because that means he's only getting 3:1 to call, and is 4.75:1 against (I think something like that...) to his flush on the river.

Betting the 30bb overbets the bot IMO, and at $10NL, he's more than likely to call regardless. The larger bet is very unlikely to increase my chance of pushing him off of the hand. So when the scare club hits on the river, I've got a bigger pot to bet into to test whether he was indeed on the flush draw and I'm going to end up losing more money.

So... 12bb takes the odds away. Means (assuming he only calls), that I can go with a 18-20bb river bet if the 3rd club hits and fold to a raise.

Take some time to really consider the part I put in bold text here. If you knew without a doubt that he's going to call the 30bb bet every single time then that's easily the best play because it REALLY gives him bad odds to call, but since you don't know that, why is the 12bb bet better?

Also, assume you know what villain's cards are. Obviously then you're not going to bet the river if he hits a club, but what's your play if he misses?

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

without the variables id consider, you bet 12bbs because he'll chase and lose lots of the time. And when he hits and donks out we can fold if we dont get a price worth showing for.
Also, leaving him something behind in his stack gives him the oppertunity to bluff some of it off on the river if he misses anyway, although id say thats more important in bigger games/when he has nothing left on river.

We're oop but I was assuming we knew villain's cards for this example.

I'm just tired of seeing new people talk about how they push for 2x-3x a pot with an overpair on the flop to keep flush draws out.

Understood. And I'm still going to go with my original explanation, assuming a real-world environment where I don't know what my opps cards are. OOP I'm going to have to bet into him on the river if the scare card drops. If I've jacked the pot unnecessarily on the turn, I now am in the uncomfortable position of having to bet much more to see whether he has the flush when the card hits on the river, and if he raises me (even as a bluff), make the decision of walking away from significantly more BBs or calling him down... which would likely put me almost all in with a quick count in my head...

If he misses, and he only called my turn bet, I'll prolly bet the R for around 1/2 the pot. Maybe push if the R gives me two pair or trips. But this puts me back in my weak spot... how aggressive do I want to be (again assuming not having seen this guys cards) with ONLY TPTK. For all I know, he could have missed the flush but be calling me down with better than one pair.

You don't bet to push flush draws out, you bet to give them bad odds that they will call anyway. You want your opponent calling with draws when they don't have the odds. Thats the money that fish give. The key here is to bet whatever they will call and not give them the implied odds they are chasing by giving them anymore money when it hits. The only reason to bet 30BB into this pot is knowing you cna do the same thing and get paid when he misses the draws but not put anymore in when he hits.

This is all assuming you actually know his hand. If you do, and he will call, shove, everytime.

Jym - If the 3rd club hits on the river, do I still bet out 1/3 or so of the pot OOP? This is giving them a portion of the implied odds that they were chasing, no? But checking to them seems too weak and too easy an opening to bluff me off... Again, all assuming we don't know his cards.

BTW... do any of you all know where I can find a game where I get to see the other dude's cards? Would make my life so much easier......

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Also, assume you know what villain's cards are. Obviously then you're not going to bet the river if he hits a club, but what's your play if he misses?

I check and hope he bluffs at the pot.

If you can see his cards, he doesn't have any implied odds.

effectivly bet what you know he'll call. If i know opp is calling a push or 30bbs then i bet it.

Originally Posted by sarbox68

Jym - If the 3rd club hits on the river, do I still bet out 1/3 or so of the pot OOP? This is giving them a portion of the implied odds that they were chasing, no? But checking to them seems too weak and too easy an opening to bluff me off... Again, all assuming we don't know his cards.

BTW... do any of you all know where I can find a game where I get to see the other dude's cards? Would make my life so much easier......

According to the OP you know he has a flush draw, so no. If your betting to give a draw bad outs, and only betting because of this reason, and the draw completes, you fold. The reason we mainly don't bet these huge amounts is because we don't know the villians hole cards, and effectively have to play the hand in a way that we can find out. Raising to 30BB to someone with MPTK would fold him up, the trick is to bet enough to keep the hands you beat in the pot, or bet enough to fold out the hands we don't beat. There is never an amount that can do both.