Planning for Dummies

so i wanted to start a thread to get a discussion going about planning how we play hands. what im looking for is to generate our probable lines on certain flops, i.e. if the flop is axx tt then we will lead w/psb or whatever.


$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ggsh1ne ($6.02)
UTG+1 Hero ($9.96)
CO VIII8 ($5)
BTN manaomoo ($5)
SB Vasiliy623 ($5.58)
BB noremorze ($11.54)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.20, 2 folds, Vasiliy623 calls $0.18, 1 fold

ok so this villain is 38/0 over 53 hands and i have a note that says checked ginned flops oop. so our read suggests he is a slowplayer and very passive.

so are villain is playing very passive preflop so we can assign a range like 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,J8s+,T8s-T7s,97s-96s,86s-85s,75s-74s,64s-63s,53s52s,42s,A2o+,KTo+,Q9o+,J8o+,T7o+,96o+,85o+, 74o+,63o+,52o+,42o+,32o (feel free to tweak this range if u see something im making a mistake on)

so whats our plan for?(these are real flops from db when i held AQo)
Flop: ($0.45, 2 players)
1. Flop:
2. Flop:
3. Flop:
4. Flop:
5. Flop:



*disclaimer*
responses like "bet" are pretty useless so dont respond with dumb shit like that, formulate a plan for the hand for the turn and river as well, also include what u think his continuing range will be.

we're in position, so whats he do first :P

Originally Posted by JKDS

we're in position, so whats he do first :P

he is only going to bet or check(or open fold but we can safely assume he is not doing this often) so plan for both?

Originally Posted by pdk1010

PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ggsh1ne ($6.02)
UTG+1 Hero ($9.96)
CO VIII8 ($5)
BTN manaomoo ($5)
SB Vasiliy623 ($5.58)
BB noremorze ($11.54)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.20, 2 folds, Vasiliy623 calls $0.18, 1 fold
Flop: ($0.45, 2 players)
1. Flop:

bet sizing will matter a ton here but we can get into that later...for now im going to say he uses a psb for simplicities sake

1. he leads psb


-what range does he do this with?
-TT+,44,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T8s-T7s,A2o+,KTo,QTo,JTo,T7o+

equity win tie
Hand 0: 37.661% { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, J8s+, T8s-T7s, 97s-96s, 86s-85s, 75s-74s, 64s-63s, 53s-52s, 42s, A2o+, KTo+, Q9o+, J8o+, T7o+, 96o+, 85o+, 74o+, 63o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }

Hand 1: 62.339% { AQo }

-i think flatting is the best option here because we are way ahead of his leading range and if we were to raise(and he calls) we narrow his range to something like:

TT+,44,A9s+,A4s,ATo+,A4o

equity win
Hand 0: 48.483% { TT+, 44, A9s+, A4s, ATo+, A4o }
Hand 1: 51.517% { AQo }

and if he reraises

QQ+,TT,44,AQs+,ATs,A4s,AQo+,ATo,A4o


equity win
Hand 0: 52.236% { QQ+, TT, 44, AQs+, ATs, A4s, AQo+, ATo, A4o }
Hand 1: 47.764% { AQo }



so 3 betting is less than optimal and flatting is a much more ev play



im only going to respond a little bit at a time so it doesnt become like u have to right a thesis to respond so thats it for now ill add more later

2. he checks

pretty standard, his range is still the same as preflop so bet for value

his continuing range:

-TT+,44,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T8s-T7s,A2o+,KTo,QTo,JTo,T7o+

equity win tie
Hand 0: 37.661% { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, J8s+, T8s-T7s, 97s-96s, 86s-85s, 75s-74s, 64s-63s, 53s-52s, 42s, A2o+, KTo+, Q9o+, J8o+, T7o+, 96o+, 85o+, 74o+, 63o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }

Hand 1: 62.339% { AQo }


standard value bet as we are ahead of his continuing range


he folds:

WE WIN POT LDFO

Originally Posted by pdk1010

1. he leads psb
-what range does he do this with?
-TT+,44,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T8s-T7s,A2o+,KTo,QTo,JTo,T7o+

I don't see a 38/0 that checks a ginned flop have a range like this ever... imo it would be more like QQ+, TT, 44, AT, A4, AQs+, AKo.

Originally Posted by pdk1010

-i think flatting is the best option here because we are way ahead of his leading range and if we were to raise(and he calls) we narrow his range to something like:

TT+,44,A9s+,A4s,ATo+,A4o

I don't agree with flatting here, I think he is probably continuing w/his whole range, so fold.

Originally Posted by pdk1010

and if he reraises

QQ+,TT,44,AQs+,ATs,A4s,AQo+,ATo,A4o

so 3 betting is less than optimal and flatting is a much more ev play

I think he would be 3betting us with 44, TT, KK+, AT, A4... Imo, do not flat a psb on the flop, as this loose passive villain is prolly only raising hands that beat us.

Hopefully some of the better players will chime in on my ranges...

Ok so lets talk about villain first and make a plan from there.

Villain is 38/0, he slowplays big hands, and is known to be passive otherwise.

So naturally, we expect him to be either calling and folding with weak value hands and apparently also either call or raise with his nut hands. Generally, since he is so loose pf, hes going to have a very weak range made up of mostly air regardless of the flop.

So with that in mind

The AT4r board...

Our plan here with TPGK is going to be bet folding every street. Villain can easily (and we expect him to) call down with Ax or Tx or like QJ KJ if we bet. We also expect him to call/raise any hand that beats us at some point in the hand as well.

If villain instead were to lead out at some point, we probably switch to a more passive call down and bet if checked too kind of line because we'd expect him to some to lead some hands that we beat a lot.

JKDS your post sounds like it is more geared towards us being oop and villain leading w/a psb, op, says we are in position. Was your post more in regards to villain checking? What if villain does lead the flop with a psb?

Originally Posted by JKDS

Our plan here with TPGK is going to be bet folding every street. Villain can easily (and we expect him to) call down with Ax or Tx or like QJ KJ if we bet. We also expect him to call/raise any hand that beats us at some point in the hand as well.

If villain instead were to lead out at some point, we probably switch to a more passive call down and bet if checked too kind of line because we'd expect him to some to lead some hands that we beat a lot.

1st: if checked too

2nd: villain leads

Why would we expect him to "lead some hands that we beat a lot"? Wouldn't being so passive, signal that he is only raising strong hands? Obviously he did check down a nut hand; but prolly wouldn't do it a lot?

Originally Posted by bhaley66

Why would we expect him to "lead some hands that we beat a lot"? Wouldn't being so passive, signal that he is only raising strong hands? Obviously he did check down a nut hand; but prolly wouldn't do it a lot?

i feel like villain leading here is more a sign of his hands weakness then strength...his thought process when he has the nuts is to slow play and try to loltrap us.

him leading is like telling us that he doesnt value his hand as a nut made hand or anything even close imo

some percentage of the time he might be leading monsters but in most cases i agree with my original range but again i suck so im interested to hear ur thoughts on this

Reads and stats dont give as much information as ppl think. At best, they describe a general tendency of the opponent to behave in a certain fashion, but that doesnt limit him to always acting in that manner. Sample sizes are also fairly small for these so they arent necessarily reliable anyway.

With that said we know this guy is a passive player...but that doesnt stop him from leading with A7 on the ATx board as opposed to check calling. Fuck, he can even fold it sometimes. He could also lead AA or TT sometimes..we dont really expect it..but he can.

So when we have TPGK and a loose passive bets the pot into us on a ATx board...folding is really really hard and is almost always not going to be correct (consider that he rarely has AA, or AK, we block AT, and theres only 3 combos of TT and 44 compared to how many Ax Tx and other hands he might have). On the other hand, more information is probably needed about his leading range to make raising profitable...so calling and re-evalutaing the turn is clearly best.

1. 3streets when checked to, flat when he bets probably bet/f anytime he checks to us.

2. Try and get to showdown when checked to, fold if he bets.

3. Bet bet, check probably cause he'll call w/ worst Qx, underpairs, flush draws, 4x. If board was rainbow, probably bet, check bet, or call a bet if he leads river when turn checks through. If he leads into us call and re-eval on the turn based on bet size on flop/turn.

4. 3streets when checked to, call if he leads himself, betting whenever he stops leading or shoving the river or raising some scary turns possibly unless his bluffing range is super wide(we have no idea on turn frequencies so it's tough to play "optimal" here but raising on scary turns(T,9,K) is probably going to be the best eV play v an unknown turn bet frequency.

5. Bet flop planning to 2barrel unless the board pairs probably. Try 3streets anytime you bink a spade/Q or A. if he leads into us probably raise and take a free card on the turn since we probably won't have much FE on the turn and will essentially be AI.

I typed this up pretty quickly so some of it could be a bit off and probably not quite as in depth as you had hoped.

Originally Posted by pdk1010

1. he leads psb

i thought about this and this villain is almost never taking this action, if he does lead i say like 90% of the time it will be for <1/2 psb which also makes my ranges make more sense.

Originally Posted by pdk1010

bet sizing will matter a ton here but we can get into that later...for now im going to say he uses a psb for simplicities sake

1. he leads psb


-what range does he do this with?
-TT+,44,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T8s-T7s,A2o+,KTo,QTo,JTo,T7o+

equity win tie
Hand 0: 37.661% { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, J8s+, T8s-T7s, 97s-96s, 86s-85s, 75s-74s, 64s-63s, 53s-52s, 42s, A2o+, KTo+, Q9o+, J8o+, T7o+, 96o+, 85o+, 74o+, 63o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }

Hand 1: 62.339% { AQo }

-i think flatting is the best option here because we are way ahead of his leading range and if we were to raise(and he calls) we narrow his range to something like:

TT+,44,A9s+,A4s,ATo+,A4o

equity win
Hand 0: 48.483% { TT+, 44, A9s+, A4s, ATo+, A4o }
Hand 1: 51.517% { AQo }

and if he reraises

QQ+,TT,44,AQs+,ATs,A4s,AQo+,ATo,A4o


equity win
Hand 0: 52.236% { QQ+, TT, 44, AQs+, ATs, A4s, AQo+, ATo, A4o }
Hand 1: 47.764% { AQo }



so 3 betting is less than optimal and flatting is a much more ev play



im only going to respond a little bit at a time so it doesnt become like u have to right a thesis to respond so thats it for now ill add more later

2. he checks

pretty standard, his range is still the same as preflop so bet for value

his continuing range:

-TT+,44,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T8s-T7s,A2o+,KTo,QTo,JTo,T7o+

equity win tie
Hand 0: 37.661% { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, J8s+, T8s-T7s, 97s-96s, 86s-85s, 75s-74s, 64s-63s, 53s-52s, 42s, A2o+, KTo+, Q9o+, J8o+, T7o+, 96o+, 85o+, 74o+, 63o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }

Hand 1: 62.339% { AQo }


standard value bet as we are ahead of his continuing range


he folds:

WE WIN POT LDFO

so to continue i didnt account for the times the villain c/r us on the flop

if he does this(although this will be rare due to his passivity) his range would be like:

QQ+,TT,44,AQs+,ATs,A4s,AQo+,ATo,A4o


equity win
Hand 0: 52.236% { QQ+, TT, 44, AQs+, ATs, A4s, AQo+, ATo, A4o }
Hand 1: 47.764% { AQo }


although i prolly wouldnt have intended to b/f here that is my plan now.


ok so when villain just flats us on the flop there are a some situations we can get to on turn

im assuming villain checks to us on the turn for all the following:

a 10 comes

TT+,44,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T8s-T7s,A2o+,KTo,QTo,JTo,T7o+

was his continuing range which we are now:

equity win
Hand 0: 56.278% { AsQh }
Hand 1: 43.722% { TT+, 44, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T8s-T7s, A2o+, KTo, QTo, JTo, T7o+ }

a 4 comes:

equity win
Hand 0: 79.261% { AsQh }
Hand 1: 20.739% { TT+, 44, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T8s-T7s, A2o+, KTo, QTo, JTo, T7o+ }

both these situations my plan is to b/f because if we get raised his range becomes

QQ+,TT,44,AQs+,ATs,A4s,AQo+,ATo,A4o

which we are a dog to:

equity win
Hand 0: 34.749% { AsQh }
Hand 1: 65.251% { QQ+, TT, 44, AQs+, ATs, A4s, AQo+, ATo, A4o}




for other turn cards that are a brick for his range(2, 5, 6, etc) our equity is between 70-75% so my plan is to still b/f for value


if another A comes:

this is the same plan as before(b/f) but this was interesting because before i stoved this i was thinking that my plan would be to b/c or b/r but to villains raising range we are still the shit end of a flip so im still going to be b/f an Ace turn.

equity win
Hand 0: 44.196% { AsQh }
Hand 1: 55.804% { QQ+, TT, 44, AQs+, ATs, A4s, AQo+, ATo, A4o}


if a queen comes:


I am b/r and trying to get the money in asap as we become a 67% favorite against villains raising range:

equity win
Hand 0: 67.285% { AsQh }
Hand 1: 32.715% { QQ+, TT, 44, AQs+, ATs, A4s, AQo+, ATo, A4o}


ima tackle the river tomorrow....

Originally Posted by pdk1010

planning for dummies

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ds-181028.html

Originally Posted by pdk1010

he is only going to bet or check(or open fold but we can safely assume he is not doing this often) so plan for both?

um, bet sizing is kinda relevant = more than 2 plans...

Originally Posted by daven

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ds-181028.html

yea ive actually read this a few times its great, im finding that by actually taking the time to do this card for card, action for action its really sticking with me more

Originally Posted by daven

um, bet sizing is kinda relevant = more than 2 plans...

yea +1 here though its hard to grasp something like this(for me at least) until i actually get in there and do it for myself also im learning alot more about situations i normally take for granted like a second ace coming on the turn, i would have def been b/r, b/c in that situation before doing this

Originally Posted by anon

so its too thin to value bet ace high on the turn vs a 38-0 on KT47?

probably