Picking off continuation bets

How do you all go about picking off continuation bets?

I figure your ideal targets for picking off continuation bets are TA-Agressive and TP-Aggressive players.

So lets say for example u call a 3x raise from MP Tagg on the button with Axs. Flop comes something like 8 high rainbow. Preflop raiser bets 2/3 pot into you you raise 2.5x his bet. If you get called shutdown unless your hand improves.

Does that sound about right?

Most of the guys I play against don't raise often enough.

Hmmm well let me think about this from a mathematical standpoint.

Lets say Preflop raise is $3
You call, so now there is $7.5 in the pot
Flop comes villain bets $5, $12.5 in the pot
U raise $12.5 (2.5x) , $25 in the pot

Soooooo your betting $12.5 to win $12.5? So it would have to work at least 50% of the time to be profitable? Much less if you have a strong draw?

If we assume villain only raises with pockets 99+ and all broadways there is about a 50% chance his hole cards will either be two big unpaired cards or a pocket pair. In this scenario it would make sense only to raise to test for a continuation bet if two of the following 3 are true:

-Player always or almost always continuation bets after raising pref lop
-Player is weak enough to fold to the raise even with a pocket pair
-Hero has a strong drawing hand

I love it when a plan comes together

You will face lots of players who will call the flop raise, but will fold unimproved to a turn bet.

Making a turn bet seems like an awful lot to commit to a pot when u don't have a spectacular hand. Unless you suggest making a smaller size bet on the turn.

Exactly, many players will force you to put in the second barrel in to keep you honest. Particulary when they raise pre-flop (which they generally don't do enough of) and probably are rather fond of looking at a couple purdy cards in the hole.

So like bet a third the pot on the turn or something?

Originally Posted by Murd0c

So like bet a third the pot on the turn or something?

I try to make my (semi-)bluffs look like my made hands. Sometimes I wonder why I bother, but anyway, it's a pretty good thought.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Exactly, many players will force you to put in the second barrel in to keep you honest.

This is what I've been noticing too. A major leak of mine is, I guess, that I then wuss out at the turn.

Exactly, many players will force you to put in the second barrel in to keep you honest.

I have noticed that when someone comes over the top on the flop for a good pot size they will fold most of the time. You will get the weekend noobs with the overs hoping to draw out on the turn and folding if unimproved

All posts are accurate and good plays....usually drop the pot on the turn though with another blank

I probably don't pick up c-bets enough. That being said, one of the most common scenarios is when a fairly solid player c-bets on an innocuous flop when I have a hand like 55-88 (ex. flop 49T rainbow). I usually just call the c-bet and see how the turn develops. The check-raise semibluff is far too expensive, so I stopped doing that. If he bets out again on the turn, I survey my options again. I usually get go on my read from then on.

If a tight-passive or loose-passive bets out on the flop after betting preflop, its a no brainer fold.

ill pick off c bets from good, tight players from position only. To do this, I play my hand like I hit a set on the flop. This way, I can not only get folds from unimproved overs, but from TPTK and overpairs, too.

A quick question about c-bets.. would you generally make a c-bet if you are first up with 3 people behind you? Or is it reserved for when you have less opponents and possibly better position?

1-2 max

unless the flop is pure oatmeal, then I might c-bet with three, but even then its case by case.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Exactly, many players will force you to put in the second barrel in to keep you honest. Particulary when they raise pre-flop (which they generally don't do enough of) and probably are rather fond of looking at a couple purdy cards in the hole.

Agreed. The turn bet will normally get the pot if the flop raise was just called. If both bets are called, then you just learned an expensive lesson in most cases. Note it and check/fold the river if you don't have a chance. The next time this guy will probably pay off your set but good. The funny thing is...there are so many that call you down to the river and fold to any bet that it's sometimes profitable to bet the river too, but that's risky.

you just need to know who cn fold to a raise.
After that picking off the right opponents is easy for small pots. Playing big pots with traps and draws against calling stations is more profitable though.

If you are going to bluff then act like you have a hand. That requires a turn bet if he calls, maybe even a river bet.