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Overpair on drawy flop; facing aggression

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    Default Overpair on drawy flop; facing aggression

    $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
    PokerStars
    9 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

    Villain is 14/8 over ~40 hands

    Villain's preflop range:

    QQ-22,ATs+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AJo+

    Flop Range following raise:

    QcQs,JJ-77,JTs,T9s,98s,87s

    Stacks:
    UTG twkukoc ($4.78)
    UTG+1 qves777 ($5.11)
    MP1 Hero ($5)
    MP2 jura0507 ($5)
    MP3 jenya10 ($7.20)
    CO michnur ($1.78)
    BTN Alegarh32 ($1.40)
    SB PandaTRON21 ($6.42)
    BB dflei ($6)

    Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 9 players) Hero is MP1

    2 folds, Hero raises to $0.20, jura0507 calls $0.20, 5 folds


    Flop: ($0.47, 2 players)


    Hero bets $0.40, jura0507 raises to $1.20, Hero?


    Alright, a few notes / questions:

    - I have no specific reads indicating that our opponent is likely to overplay draws (small sample).

    - Of the 7 times villain has seen a flop, he has bet once and raised never. Again, tiny sample...

    - Stoving our QQ against villain's range, we have roughly 38.6% equity. If this were a simple all-in calling decision, I think it's fairly close to break-even (we need ~38% equity to call). However, we have 3.60 behind and with two more streets to go, we obviously have to account for the likelihood of facing future bets.

    1) Any thoughts on either the preflop or flop ranges I've assigned?

    2) Flop sizing?

    Any other thoughts/comments would be appreciated as well.
    Last edited by Penneywize; 06-22-2010 at 11:25 PM.

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