outs to %

I am very good with numbers hence the post. I am trying to figure out how to calculate the percentage of time that my outs will hit.

I've been told by a friend to do the following math. Which vaugely makes sense to me.

1-3 Outs: Outs x 2 = % of hitting
3-11 Outs: (Outs x 2) + 1 = % of hitting
12+ Outs: (Outs X 2) + 2 = % of hitting

(flop 47/outs)
(river 46/outs)

OUTS TURN RIVER
1 2.13% 2.17%
2 4.26% 4.35%
3 6.38% 6.52%
4 8.51% 8.70%
5 10.64% 10.87%
6 12.77% 13.04%
7 14.89% 15.22%
8 17.02% 17.39%
9 19.15% 19.57%
10 21.23% 21.47%
11 23.40% 23.91%
12 25.53% 26.09%
13 27.66% 28.26%
14 29.79% 30.43%
15 31.91% 32.61%
16 34.04% 34.76%
17 36.17% 36.96%
18 38.30% 39.13%
19 40.43% 41.30%
20 42.55% 43.48%
21 44.68% 45.65%

HOWEVER.... I've come across this today and I am completely stumped by the % differences......

The way I do it at the table is to use the rule of 4 or the rule of 2.

Basically, all you do is add up your outs and multiply them by 4 if ur going to call both the turn AND river bets, then add 2. That number will give you an APPROXIMATE estimate of your equity.

The rule of two is the same except you are looking to call just one street. So you add all your outs, multiply by 2 and add 2. That number is ur equity.

Hope that helps!

Have been doing ALOT of reading on this today. I have my answer now so its all guuuud! I am going to try and explain what i have learnt today. (only to prove that i have learnt something not brag!! lol)

My question was on the disparity between the websites %'s imaged chart %'s with 2 cards to come. ie 9 outs = 35% on imaged chart but on the list 9 outs = 19.15% and I way extremely confused by the big difference!

I have since worked out that the website got the 19.15% calculation wrong!!!

With 2 cards to come they are only dividing 9/47 = 19.15%
And 1 card to come they have divided 9/46 = 19.57%

Whereas with 2 cards to come they should have {9-47/47}*{9-46/46}=0.6503 then minus this from 1 to get .3497 or 34.96% rounded up to 35% on chart! wooohoo

1 card to come would be {9-46}/46=.8043, minus 1 =0.1956 (19.56%!!)

Its ridicoulous how much poor information there is out there on pot odds, really confused me but i did come across a couple gems, as per your 4 and 2 rules, a little spin on the x2 rule makes it much more accurate.

1 to 3 outs = x2
3 to 11 outs = x2+1
11+ outs = x2+2

Cant get the table to layout properly but column 1=Outs, colume 2 =(46-9/46), column 3=Outs x 2, column4=diff, column5=Outs x 2 + 0 or 1 or 2, column6=diff.

basically you reduce the difference from 3.48 to 1.5 at the biggest variance.

20 43.48% 40.00% -3.48% 42.00% -1.48%
19 41.30% 38.00% -3.30% 40.00% -1.30%
18 39.13% 36.00% -3.13% 38.00% -1.13%
17 36.96% 34.00% -2.96% 36.00% -0.96%
16 34.78% 32.00% -2.78% 34.00% -0.78%
15 32.61% 30.00% -2.61% 32.00% -0.61%
14 30.43% 28.00% -2.43% 30.00% -0.43%
13 28.26% 26.00% -2.26% 28.00% -0.26%
12 26.09% 24.00% -2.09% 26.00% -0.09%
11 23.91% 22.00% -1.91% 24.00% 0.09%
10 21.74% 20.00% -1.74% 21.00% -0.74%
9 19.57% 18.00% -1.57% 19.00% -0.57%
8 17.39% 16.00% -1.39% 17.00% -0.39%
7 15.22% 14.00% -1.22% 15.00% -0.22%
6 13.04% 12.00% -1.04% 13.00% -0.04%
5 10.87% 10.00% -0.87% 11.00% 0.13%
4 8.70% 8.00% -0.70% 9.00% 0.30%
3 6.52% 6.00% -0.52% 6.00% -0.52%
2 4.35% 4.00% -0.35% 4.00% -0.35%
1 2.17% 2.00% -0.17% 2.00% -0.17%

woohoo i get math, omg! pls correct me if anything is wrong, pls also provide any links to must read threads on this topic+pot equity.

No, it's the difference between two cards to come and one card to come.

Trying to become precisely accurate isn't going to help at the tables. You have limited time to make a decision, so being approximate is all you need. Also you aren't always going to be looking at just the pot odds. But you will also be trying to factor in implied odds, and you can't really be exact when dealing with implied odds.

OMG....Stacks do you remember who the MOD is in here now!

Makes me laugh cuz I read an old thread a couple days ago that was fuking hilarious. spenda/swiggy and others went crazy over this topic.

stacks for president IMO

Nah, stacks AVATAR for prez imo.

Originally Posted by dranger7070

Nah, stacks AVATAR for prez imo.

She would do better as a secretary :O

When you are counting outs you must keep in mind that some outs may be tainted. F.ex a flushdraw against a bigger flushdraw, AK overcards versus KT on T, 8, 2 flop etc.

And yeah- Stacks contributions are invaluable, even though not everybody is appreciative. Keep it up!

Originally Posted by HarleyGuy13

OMG....Stacks do you remember who the MOD is in here now!

Makes me laugh cuz I read an old thread a couple days ago that was fuking hilarious. spenda/swiggy and others went crazy over this topic.

pm me link?

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by HarleyGuy13

OMG....Stacks do you remember who the MOD is in here now!

Makes me laugh cuz I read an old thread a couple days ago that was fuking hilarious. spenda/swiggy and others went crazy over this topic.

pm me link?

I believe this is the thread he is referring to.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ht-t39853.html