open 99, hit T73tt vs reg - 25nl

villain is 17-13-3 playing about 15 tables. 56% fold to cbet, 7% raise cbet. 52% bet vs missed flop cbet, 100% vs missed turn cbet (4/4). History suggests he doesn't raise draws unless they are nutted super-combos. what's my turn play once i hit the oesd?

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
7 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($24.75)
daven (MP) ($63.24)
CO ($25.60)
BTN ($25)
SB ($7.05)
BB ($14)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 7 players) daven is MP
2 folds, daven raises to $0.85, CO calls $0.85, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.05, 2 players)
daven bets $1.37, CO calls $1.37

Turn: ($4.79, 2 players)
daven ($61.02)?

this could be a spot where u need to change ur hand into a bluff on like A K Q non spades rivers when u bet turn. I don't like chechking here. He's always going to bet and it leaves us guessing whether he's doing it with like a T , A7, A8 , drawing hands on the turn .

SO yeah since u said he's only raising nutted combodraws obviously sets , 2 pairs probably id bet fold turn. Bet aforementioned rivers and complete likely blanks like 4 2 3 ( for thin value). We can check rivers if your willing to call bets but it seems bad to me cuz he is likely firing a ton of rivers and then ur in the guessing game again. Problem is if like an Ah comes of and u check he is always betting and we're in herocalling mode while he is probably polarized. Kind of hard to guess his frequency bluffs/valuebets if u don't know villain with his tendecies well.

That's why i opt to bet KQA non spades cuz we can make him fold a bare 8/7. Obiously were' ahead of that but i prefer betting to manipulate his range into folding. When he takes the lead on the river on these cards it could be anything.

and all clean OESD river cards are jolly fun

spades completing is pretty yukkie but i'd C/F.

bet/fold prolly 3.9. hes calling with alot of pair+draw hands which is alot you beat. his Tx is gonna be limited TJ(prolly not spades) TQss ATss 9Tdd. I expect he'll raise any sets or straights. chk/fold rivers that dont improve you, he will have a pair to chk back to often so he's not gonna bluff you off but he prolly wouldnt call another bet with a hand you beat.

This kind of sucks. I'd just bet since we still have an equity lead and we're going to have to play a guessing game on the river and it doesn't allow him to take free cards(big mistake on our part) and doesn't allow him to save money with all his weaker shit that is going to take a showdown with us anyway. If he doesn't have spazzy tendencies I would probably go for a real small river bet like 1/3 pot so we're not playing a guessing game.(ppl don't abuse this at 2/4 so I don't expect it to be abused @ 10c/25c). Also I expect to never get raised on the turn.

Another option is to just shove the river when spades bricks unless he's the type to hero 1 pair(his range is so fucking capped). Also we should have an overbet shove range in spots like this where villains call/call range is NEVER EVER going to be strong(correctly so).