OOP, Think Villain is on draw, Draw Hits on River

You have a decent hand and have bet 2/3 pot on flop, and 2/3 pot on turn. Villain is on button and has called your flop and turn bet. You have a strong feeling he was chasing the flush. River completes any flush draw.

Do you bet on river and if so how much do you bet in relation to pot size?
(Assume still relatively deepstacked compared to the pot)
(Assume you have no reads on this player)

Example:
UTG limps, you limp in MP with 7c7h, button limps, sb completes, bb checks
flop: 2d 7d Js

sb checks, bb checks, UTG checks, you bet 2/3 pot, button calls, sb folds, bb folds, UTG folds.

turn: 4c
you bet 2/3 pot, button calls

river: Qd
your play here???

If you check, what is your plan in response to a bet
If you bet, what is your plan in response to a minraise, standard raise, push?

I hate this example, because the real question isn't what should I do on the river, but what should I have done on the turn"

Why allow yourself to get to a river where villain was almost getting odds (real + implied) to call? Villain will either stack you on the river if he hits, or he will fold to any bet if he doesn't hit his flush. I see absolutely no value in letting the hand get to the river in the first place whatsoever.

Push on the turn.

I personally will happily call in button's position, depending on pot size, because MP will either fire a blocking bet on the river that I will happily donkishly miniraise (and which gets a call 90% of the time, just to look me up) ORRRR.... MP will check to me, I will throw a value bet or even a push out there (depending on my read of MP) that will be called 90% of the time.

Thoughts?

if you read a chaser push, otherwise value bet.
If you get to the river like this you block bet for the amount you are willing to pay to showdown and fold to a raise.
At smaller stakes this is a predictable chasing line.
Better players may raise on the flop.

Originally Posted by Vinterriket

You have a decent hand and have bet 2/3 pot on flop, and 2/3 pot on turn. Villain is on button and has called your flop and turn bet. You have a strong feeling he was chasing the flush. River completes any flush draw.

Do you bet on river and if so how much do you bet in relation to pot size?
(Assume still relatively deepstacked compared to the pot)
(Assume you have no reads on this player)

Example:
UTG limps, you limp in MP with 7c7h, button limps, sb completes, bb checks
flop: 2d 7d Js

sb checks, bb checks, UTG checks, you bet 2/3 pot, button calls, sb folds, bb folds, UTG folds.

turn: 4c
you bet 2/3 pot, button calls

river: Qd
your play here???

If you check, what is your plan in response to a bet
If you bet, what is your plan in response to a minraise, standard raise, push?

You think he is on a flush draw, but you have no read??

If he is new to the table, a push could easily represent QJ, a slow played set, flopped 2 pair. If I'm OOP against an complete unknown, I will usually bet/call depending on how deep we are. If we are very deep stacked and the pot is small by comparison, I'm not going broke here. If he is bluffing a flush, I'm going to make a note and play a flush draw exactly the same the next time we are HU. That way, when it hits and he bluffs again and I clean him out.

Originally Posted by moiraine57

I hate this example, because the real question isn't what should I do on the river, but what should I have done on the turn"

Why allow yourself to get to a river where villain was almost getting odds (real + implied) to call? Villain will either stack you on the river if he hits, or he will fold to any bet if he doesn't hit his flush. I see absolutely no value in letting the hand get to the river in the first place whatsoever.

Push on the turn.

I don't like this play. I might agree with a PSB, but not a push. Pushing is paranoia. He's got 9 cards out of 47 to make a flush. 2 of those cards give us a boat. So he has 7 clean outs and 2 outs that will pay us off huge. It would be a mistake for him to call 2/3 pot bet (assuming we don't get out of line deepstacked on an ugly river) That is IF our read is correct. He may also have a J that would instafold to a push.

When I put someone on a flush draw I don't necessarily want them to fold. I want to bet as much as they will call that is greater than the max they should call based on pot odds. Implied odds make this a bit more challenging..

Yes, pushing the turn will most likely get the flush draw to fold, probably any hand to fold actually, and we take the pot now. This is fine but isn't it better to continue to give villain incorrect odds that he will still call? +EV? If 2/3 pot is not enough than how about betting pot?

I hate this example, because the real question isn't what should I do on the river, but what should I have done on the turn"

Why allow yourself to get to a river where villain was almost getting odds (real + implied) to call? Villain will either stack you on the river if he hits, or he will fold to any bet if he doesn't hit his flush. I see absolutely no value in letting the hand get to the river in the first place whatsoever.

The value we get by letting this hand get to river is the turn bet villain calls. We risk the flush card hitting but give villain incorrect odds to draw so, therefore, value does exist in not pushing the turn.

You think he is on a flush draw, but you have no read??

I knew someone was gonna say that

What I mean is you have no strong reads but just get a gut feeling or vibe in this particular hand (probably a leak).

Basically, what I'm saying is that is it not best to always try to extract maximum value out of a hand. If the villain makes a -EV call... it's a -EV call. The problem with this scenario is we get ourselves into hard decisions on the river sometimes, but if we can still play the river correctly often enough to make villain's (pot odds + implied odds) call on turn -EV then we should not push villain out on turn.

I was just trying to see what a good line is on river when this scenario occurs against an unknown.

If you get to the river like this you block bet for the amount you are willing to pay to showdown and fold to a raise.

This is probably the best line against an unknown.