oop facing river bet

Villain is 160 hands & 25/16 3bet 4% 50% aggression. Seems like a reg, nothing special has come into play so far that comes to mind.

$0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

UTG: $10.16
Hero (MP): $10.00
CO: $18.03
BTN: $20.36
SB: $9.10
BB: $25.90

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has K K

fold, Hero raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, fold, fold

Flop: ($1.05, 3 players) J 7 4
Hero bets $0.52, CO calls $0.52, fold

I've got 2nd nut flush & overpair. I think I sized this very badly. Either bigger or not at all is what I'm thinking now. $1.30 i'm thinking now would have told me more. I've priced this wrong. Comments?

Turn: ($2.09, 2 players) 4
Hero bets $1.56, CO calls $1.56

Board pairs gives a chance of FH for someone now in addition to the flush. Just a call makes me think he's worried about something or drawing or simply sucking out. I can't really gauge.

River: ($5.21, 2 players) 6
Hero bets $3.90, CO raises to $7.80, Hero ??

This makes me feel I'm beat. It's a good time for a missed draw to bluff the pot but I've not seem him show a bluff yet. AsJx would have hung around but I doubt shove at the pot like this. Air or good flush draw?

I think I"m beat here due to the change in the play & the size.

Thoughts?

Pot flop, bet turn big, shove river is likely best vs a guy who probably wont fold top pair on blanks. As played you need 18% equity to call here. I think you're good not very often at all, but then he reps a pretty damn thin value range since I'd expect him to raise sets, or weak flushes on an earlier street almost always. Can't be much wrong with shrugging and calling vs this sizing when his value range is essentially just nut flushes. If he has a busto draw or spazz just 20% of the time, it's going to be a call. Call and expect to loose 70%+

pre is good. Flop is too small on this board. Turn looks good. I'm not sure about your first river decision, as played you kinda have to call cos 4:1 and he can have some AJ/QQ I suppose. River is probably a check-decide rather than a bet-?

I'd never ever c/f river. I'd always bet river without some read that villain was passive with draws and bluffy when they miss.

Originally Posted by daven

River is probably a check-decide rather than a bet-?

Thanks very much for the comments.

My thought on the bet on the river was I was getting value from any pair and 2 pair. I doubted a set (now FH) would have been so passive on the turn. I didn't put a 4 in this guys range unless it was 44 (very rare) so wasn't worried about trips. My big fear was a made flush on the flop that was sucking out.

Based on both your thoughts see the reasons you would call is essentially to pick up a busted flush 20% of the time and I should note that for the future.

(PS Carroters -I'm just going through your 'busten dem leaks' series vids. AWESOME STUFF!!)

pps edit typo

Originally Posted by Carroters

I'd never ever c/f river. I'd always bet river without some read that villain was passive with draws and bluffy when they miss.

16% pfr and 4% 3b i'm pretty much check-snapping river here a whole bunch, but that's cos those stats seem aggro to this fullring nit. Value is getting pretty thin by the river too, AdJx, QQ is about it.

Originally Posted by Moradis

(PS Carroters -I'm just going through your 'busten dem leaks' series vids. AWESOME STUFF!!)

make sure to do the how to master 6-max series two as well. it's fucking golden.

generally i'd be betting all 3 streets on this runout. bigger too. as played it's not the nicest of situations but given all of the really strong hands can be discounted to some degree by villains pre,flop,turn play, and he can be bluffing with Adx some % of the time (or even misclick), i guess we have to sigh and call.

Originally Posted by daven

16% pfr and 4% 3b i'm pretty much check-snapping river here a whole bunch, but that's cos those stats seem aggro to this fullring nit. Value is getting pretty thin by the river too, AdJx, QQ is about it.

A 25/16 will generally have more Jx than just AJ and can certainly find a call with 88-TT type of stuff too when the river bricks like this. If he's aggro enough to bluff a missed draw on such an obvious brick, he's likely aggro enough to be raising the flop here with Adx and so I think betting is loads better than check/anything.

Originally Posted by Carroters

Pot flop, bet turn big, shove river is likely best vs a guy who probably wont fold top pair on blanks.he reps a pretty damn thin value range since I'd expect him to raise sets, or weak flushes on an earlier street almost always. Can't be much wrong with shrugging and calling vs this sizing when his value range is essentially just nut flushes. If he has a busto draw or spazz just 20% of the time, it's going to be a call. Call and expect to loose 70%+

My thoughts were already spoken..

Originally Posted by rpm

make sure to do the how to master 6-max series two as well. it's fucking golden.

Thanks for the tip, I'll check it out.

I'm learning lots but have to avoid playing my old habitual ways. Since I joined grinders I've moved from break even/slight minus (profit from bonus release stuff) to positive 2bb / 100 over 30,000+ hands. I find when I review my bad hands I'm getting in stupid situations too often hence the leaks series has been so valuable.

I like the way you played it. Bet more on the flop though. Call river.