the online variance

I've read a lot, and commented on, the issue of online poker. Here is another statement.

I appreciate that there is a variance in live poker, just like there is in online poker. But I've looked at this variance over six months, and it is far greater online.

In live poker, I tend to either win a fairly large amount, or a small amount consistently. Rarely do I lose a large amount.

Online, however, the variance is more striking. I either win a large amount (50-100% of my bankroll) or I lose a similar amount. In other words, it is up and down a lot more.

I'm at a loss to explain why this might be. I've eliminated the proximity of players in live poker and tells as an explanation, as I experimented by not concentrating on these for a number of sessions and found that any difference in profit and loss was negligible.

Anyone with any useful thoughts?

Online tells aren't as conclusive as live tells. You know where you're at more often live.

Originally Posted by bunthorne

But I've looked at this variance over six months, and it is far greater online.

Some stats on this please! If not then your post is pure garbage.

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

Originally Posted by bunthorne

But I've looked at this variance over six months, and it is far greater online.

Some stats on this please! If not then your post is pure garbage.

Well, any stats I post will be viewed as inconclusive, or an alternative set might be produced which it will be argued will contradict mine. Lies, damn lies and statistics, and all that!

Take my word that the variance I have experienced has been far greater online than in live poker. I don't have to prove that to anyone as I have my own records which I am not prepared to submit.

What i asked for was any thoughts on why this variance is so large, not a contradiction of my results.

I'd suspect that the #1 reason is because it's easier for fish to push all in online.


I've never played a live game though.


PS: without actual data your nto going to get good information. If you have the data post it, if you dont then say that you dont have the hard data, but it feels that way.

Originally Posted by bunthorne

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

Originally Posted by bunthorne

But I've looked at this variance over six months, and it is far greater online.

Some stats on this please! If not then your post is pure garbage.

Well, any stats I post will be viewed as inconclusive, or an alternative set might be produced which it will be argued will contradict mine. Lies, damn lies and statistics, and all that!

Take my word that the variance I have experienced has been far greater online than in live poker. I don't have to prove that to anyone as I have my own records which I am not prepared to submit.

What i asked for was any thoughts on why this variance is so large, not a contradiction of my results.

LOL

Let me get this straight. You want us to discuss why your variance is so large, but its a secret just how large it is!


I for one do not feel the need to be secretive about my variance which has a standard deviation of 32BB/100. This value can be found with pokertracker.

More hands online/hour = more variance.

Originally Posted by SteveO

More hands online/hour = more variance.

Wouldn't more hands reduce the varience? Actually I see what you are saying. More hands will mean you will observe greater swings (tending to forget the long periods of steadiness) although your overall win rate will be more accurate.

First of all, in order to determine whether you really have more varience in your online games than in your live games you would need a very large sample from each of these areas. Otherwise you may just be experiencing varience in the amount of varience that you are observing. A completely different person could play a thousand games live and a few thousand online and experience larger swings in his live game.

Perhaps you are just experiencing a high upswing in your live game. Maybe your online bb/hour is more indicative of your actual skill level because you are getting in more hands in. So in reality your overall win rate online, although more streaky is closer to the mark.

Second, live players tend to be poorer players than online players. Your average 50nl player online has played thousands of hands. Your average 50nl live game player has not. Therefore a good player can more consitently beat a live game because of the larger gap between his play and that of the poor play of his live opponents while an online player will be more subject to the natural varience of the cards.

Also, an online player will tend to migrate to a level of play similar to his own because he is looking for competetion or more money. A live game player will be more restricted in the games he plays.

Originally Posted by Lucid

Second, live players tend to be poorer players than online players. Your average 50nl player online has played thousands of hands. Your average 50nl live game player has not.

This is probably true, but not just because of the number of hands an online player has played.

An online player can multi-table, and will often drop down in stakes in order to increase his true hourly win rate. So, given the same stakes, the average online player will be a better player than the average live player. I think I've read here (Fnord?) that a $5/$10 limit live game is similar to a $2/$4 limit online game.