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General rule of bluffs: If you have to ask if it's a good spot for a bluff it's not.
Reasoning: Bluffs are only profitable if you have good reason to think that your opponent is folding some of the time. In other words, they require SOLID READS and knowledge of the opponents tendencies.
In the present hand we can all speculate on what the villain is playing in this way, but we only have the one hand history to base our assumptions on - you, when playing, presumably had more. Maybe you also have a timing tell that suggests that he's weak or whatever.
It would be nice to know here if it's the first time villain has 3bet out of the blinds in response to an apparent blind steal. Or if it's first time he's 3bet period.
It would be nice to know if the villain is someone who cbets every time he makes the last preflop raise (has the initiative).
It would be nice to know if the villain is generally highly likely to bet - since he only hits the flop so often a high likelihood of betting can signify a high bluff percentage.
It would be nice to know if villain tends to slowplay monsters. He 3bet here and at these limits 3bets are often KK/AA/AK, both of which are monsters on this flop. True, he SHOULD bet them to price out the apparent flush draw, but if he always slowplays monsters he may be prone to incorrectly doing it here also. If so, his flop bet is more likely to be a bluff and less likely to be value.
Basic point, if you don't know your opponents hand ranges for the actions he's taken and likely playing tendencies then you cannot profitably bluff him.
Calling behind with AQo is fine here preflop because you're in position - but just calling preflop without a plan is bad because of the amount of money going in. Preflop you need to have a clear idea what kind of flops you are looking to continue on and have a good understanding of what your opponents likely cbet means. Does he cbet here every time he has 3bet you preflop or is he rarely cbetting and if he does what does it mean? If you say that you can't fold the flop to one bet then when you are making your preflop call you are effectively calling a full quarter of your stack because you expect to call off the cbet without being any the wiser.
Is your opponent aggressive both pre ad post flop?
Is your opponent positionally aware (what's his attempt to steal%)? If he is positionally aware he is more likely to consider your bet a blind steal and more likely to be playing back at it.
Is your opponent a habitual 3bettor? Has he 3bet before in any situaion?
Do you have a loose image, or an image as a blind stealer?
Do you have weak tight post flop tendencies?
Do you call 3bets often in position? Often enough to widen your perceived hand range here to include QT?
Does your opponent cbet almost always?
Any yeses to this list of questions makes it more likely that you can profitably semi-bluff in this hand. IF you can semi-bluff in my opinion the street to pull the all-in semi-bluff is the flop. On the flop you have 4 outs twice, and the ace is sometimes also an out. With a good number of yeses you should have decent fold equity as both more of his range will be air and less of your perceived range will be. And on the flop you get your outs (4 or 7) twice and not just once.
When the turn comes it looks kind of innocent, but unfortunately I'm not sure it helps your bluffing chances. For the semi-bluff aspect whatever outs you have you now have only once. Also it puts two hearts on the board and the shove by you is more likely to be seen as a heart draw than a made hand.
In either case I think I would be more comfortable with a flop semi-bluff all-in if the board was rainbow and you had some of the indicators mentioned here known to you and strongly in your favour.
But I spew.
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Ok Spot for a Bluff?
, A
, K
, J
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Originally Posted by Muzzard
