Quote Originally Posted by zenbitz
But mostly you only care about what the odds are that someone else flops a set when you ALREADY HAVE ONE, which would be about 1/2.37 * 1/12 or 3% of the time (full ring). Odds of higher or lower are hard to determine unless you know what set you have (222 vs TTT for example), and obviously if you flop top set then opp. can't have a higher one.
I wanted to do math for that as well, but there were to many IF-s: should we take into consideration paired boards i.e. sets vs quads; top, middle, bottom set scenarious ...
I think your 3% are about fine for middle sets (average)

Quote Originally Posted by zenbitz
Your math is wrong here, but not VERY wrong. Odds of you being dealt pp: 1/17
Odds of any one OR more of other 9 players dealt pp = 1 minus odds NO ONE ELSE has a pair = ~(1 - (16/17)^9) = 42% or 1/2.37
The reason I posted the whole process is that I wanted someone to check my math/logic so we can have accurate results and YES this is a clear mistake. DAMN! How could I miss that? After checking several times every single step?

And now excuse me I have a homework to do: fix OP