Nut flush vs possible FH on the river

NL10 RUSH. CO is habitual stealer (always steals from CO and BTN, never from SB), 19/15 over 120 hands. SB unknown, played 3 hands so far.

I decided to call preflop since CO plays lots of junk from these spots.
CO calling a SBs donk bet looks really strong, since SB doesn't have much of a stack and obviously CO wants to keep him in pot. He would presumeably fold with a junk since I am still left to act behind. Nice flop and odds, I call.
Here I would put CO on any two pair, flush draw, sets, AA, KK, JT.

Turn gave me the nuts, but CO's reraise represented a hand strong enough to stack villain in SB. At this point I have CO at sets, weak flush, and a remote possibly of AA, KhK, or a bit overplayed two pair.

River is the worst card ever, for me. Call or fold?



Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG+1 ($6.05)
MP1 ($10.16)
MP2 ($3.65)
MP3 ($2.51)
CO ($10.82)
Hero (Button) ($12.41)
SB ($2.78)
BB ($4)
UTG ($5.84)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 10
5 folds, CO bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($1) 9, 2, Q (3 players)
SB bets $0.50, CO calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

Turn: ($2.50) 5 (3 players)
SB bets $0.50, CO raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 1 fold

River: ($6) 9 (2 players)
CO bets $4.50, Hero ????

I don't think I'm ever folding this river.

Would be interested to hear better players' thoughts on repopping the turn and just trying to get it in, since cutoff is showing so much strength

I don't fold them either - even though I got nailed twice in a row today by pp which turned into FH on the river when holding the nut flush. I shrug, move on & know my nut flush is good *mostly* always in this situation.

3bet the turn to about $5.50ish and call a shove

As played, call river

I'd be raising turn and calling any shove that came since CO is showing strength.

I'd be calling river as well.

Has villain not got enough flushes and top pairs in his range to shove river here? He's pretty committed. Ok maybe he probably hasn't got top pair since he raises turn, but it looks pretty flushy to me. He'd likely raise a set on the flop. He might have 55 or some crappy 9x hand that made boat, but much more often I think this is a flush, or he's outright bluffing, especially if the read that he always steals from CO is accurate.

I'd shove this river and shrug if he's good.

all in

i like raising the turn.. villain will have trouble laying down a set, or perhaps has weaker flush. if he has something even weaker its probably hard to get much more out of him on the river anyway as hands like that probably give up after the turn raise is called.

Ok after thinking for longer about this hand, I conclude that villain's range at river is...

95 (6 combos) 55 (3 combos) Q5 (9 combos) maybe Q9 (6 combos) and all flush combos (I count 28), and bluffs.

So, we beat 37 combos and lose to 15.

Obviously I'm assuming that his pre flop stealing range is ATC, based on hero's read.

This is such an easy shove, since he's calling all 28 of those flush combos the vast majority of the time.

If he flopped a set, then that's tough luck for us, make a note so we know in future he can slow play sets on this flop. If he has 55, then make a note so we know he can call flop bets chasing 2 outs (or is that one?). If he has 95, then it's a cooler.

Did I add the combos up correctly?

*edit - I missed out overpairs in his range. Not sure he has them after flatting flop bet, but if he does, it obviously increases our equity.

Reading it that ^^ way gives a great argument for shoving the river, but if we do then don't we fold out all of the air in his hand so that he continues only with what beats us and maybe a smaller flush K?

That being siad, I'm not against the shove because about 2/3 of the time we're crushing him and we'll just pick up the pot right there instead. A big plus to that is the shove could set up another profitable situation in the future if our opponents begin to think that we bluffed him outta the pot.

I gotta be honest, I can't see villain folding even 23 hearts to a shove with the amount he has invested. His pot odds after we shove will be huge, he'll need to call $4.02 to win $19.02. He only needs to pick off a bluff just under once in five times to break even, he's not laying down a flush for shit. I certainly wouldn't in villain's shoes, it's not unreasonable to shove-bluff this to try and make small flushes fold. Maybe at higher stakes shoving would be bad, but at 10s I think villain calls all of his flushes nearly all of the time.

It doesn't matter if he lays down his air, so long as he has enough hands we beat in his range that he's calling with.

Its never ever a fold - but villain has to be bad to call a shove with worse IMO although it is 10nl.

Id call only - i get burnt ever time i shove here

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

villain has to be bad to call a shove with worse IMO although it is 10nl.

I disagree slightly, I think villain has to be bad to bet this river so large with worse, but then even 2h3h might find a value bet against trip nines, for example. Once villain bets this river for over half his remaining stack, he's always calling a shove unless he has air. If he can make this river bet with 2h3h, then we're good to go, he's not folding. If we're saying that 2h3h isn't making this bet on the river, then maybe I have to reassess what flushes might make this bet.

please just shove.. so many worse flushes in his range that hes prob not getting away from.
hes retarded if is flatting a set on this flop