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 Not so much about the HH here, but the calculations.
This was really just some personal study I was doing, and I told someone I would post it. The thread really isn't about the HH itself, as I was guided on that already, but about my math and study etc...
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($8.05)
MP ($12.49)
CO ($10.46)
Button ($3.97)
Hero (SB) ($4.95)
BB ($5.20)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 10 , 10
1 fold, MP raises to $0.10, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, 1 fold, MP calls $0.40
Flop: ($1.05) J , A, 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks
Turn: ($1.05) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, MP calls $0.70
River: ($2.45) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $1.50, Hero folds
Total pot: $2.45 | Rake: $0.10
Flop:AJ5
possible combos on flop
22-44 = 18
66-99 = 24
55 = 3
TT = 1
JJ = 3
QQ = 6
KK = 6
AA = 3
AK = 12
AQ = 12
AJ = 9
AT = 6
KQ = 16
Axs = 23 (includeing A5s)
TOTAL: 142
Hands continuing to a bet most likely)
55 =3
JJ =3
AA =3
QQ =6
KK =6
AK =12
AQ =12
AJ =9
AT =6
AXs=23
Total:83
58.4% of his orginal range
x=possible bet, 21bb is pot, and 41.6% he folds
x/(x+21bb) = .416
x = .416(x+21bb)
x = .416x + 8.736
x - .416x = 8.736
.584x = 8.736
x = 14.96bb
I could bet roughly 15bb here, and be Break even. or, roughly half pot, and be profitable
HOWEVER: I have no reason to assume that this guy is calling 3bets lightly, because I have no history with him at all, this was after a minimal number of hands. Nor do I know what he's continuing with if he is calling lightly, and I obvioulsy won't be able to 2barrel to get him off such hands, and I will cerainly have to fold to any bet/raise.
SO, lets adjust his 3bet calling range tighter.
AQ+ = 24
TT+ = 19
hands he will continue flop bet to:
AQ+ = 24
JJ+ = 18
That is a good 97% of his range. So w/o reads, I think that we are better off checking the flop.
The line that should have been taken was:
Check flop, c/c turn, and c/f river. In my opinion, because while smaller PP's will probably check down, this is where they would bluff if they were going to.
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