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Is this normal?

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  1. #1
    Ragnar4's Avatar
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    Default Is this normal?

    I have a good number of hands on a lot of regs.

    Every person over 50 hands except for one, (and this guy plays 5/3 over 300 hands) has lost money. Every one of them is a loser.

    My sample is relatively small, but I'd say I've found 12 people tonight, and only one is a winner. Unfortunately, I'm using realtime so I can't view the whole database.

    Is this normal?
    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes
  2. #2
    euphoricism's Avatar
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    estimated approx 95% of poker players are long term losers. So yes, its very possible.
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  3. #3
    300 hands is maybe a decent sample to see how tight/loose someone is but it is completely irrelevant to determining whether they are a winning player.

    In determining whether someone is a winner over the long run, I believe I read a post once where someone said 1K hands is not even close to a reliable sample, 10K hands is more of a dent, 20K is getting there, and you should have a pretty damn good idea whether or not your winning after 30K. By that time variance has evened out for the most part. Just remember people can go on swings in a few hundred hands where they are up 'x' number of BI's. I've seen fish running 43/2/.4 over a few hundred hands and yet they are up $15 at 5NL.

    I myself don't rely on how much money someone has won to determine whether they are a 'winning player'. Just focus on how they play. It's probably self destructive if your worried about someone elses product and not trying to figure out their process, just as its important to focus on process as opposed to product within your own game. (if you need me to sort of elaborate just reply..its really late here I'm half asleep)

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