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Okay I'll post a hand to keep things rolling on this topic.
Have a look at the hand first and then read my thoughts on it below.
Villain Description: A non spewtastic reg running 20/17, folding to 83% of 3 bet over 160 hands. I've 3 bet him once before this session to which he folded.
BB is a 30/24 somewhat loosish player, but one I haven't played very much with yet postflop. I assume he knows I'm light here a bunch preflop.
The Hand
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($100)
Button ($96.70)
Hero (SB) ($102.35)
BB ($113.10)
UTG ($149.65)
MP ($79)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 4 , 5
2 folds, CO bets $3, 1 fold, Hero raises $10, BB calls $9.50, 1 fold
Flop: ($24) 4 , 6, A (2 players)
Hero bets $13, BB calls $13
Turn: ($50) J (2 players)
Hero bets $31, 1 fold
Total pot: $50
Okay so our villain is fairly loosish looking, when he cold calls my 3 bet, I assume he has a range of some mediumish pairs like 88-QQ, AJs, AQ, KQ.
So we c-bet the flop here since it's awesome for our range and we hope to fold out stuff like 88, QJ, KQ, etc. i do however feel that he'll call with at least 99-JJ and AJs AQ and could perhaps float us lighter than this, expecting us to c bet our whole range. So our bet doesn't need to be any bigger than this for two reasons:
1. The range of hands we're looking to fold out here is pretty weak so we don't need to worry about further cutting odds.
2. We plan to fire twice here given that he'll call with weaker pocket pairs and float this board a fair bit.
Turn - When he calls, I make a rough range for him of 99-JJ AJs AQ, KcQx, KxQc - the last 2 hands to reprsent his floats (maybe QQ if he flats this, we don't know for sure - it would certainly be good in this spot to flat QQ vs me, anyone know why?)
So we bet 31/50, risking 31 to win 50, needing him to fold 31/(31+50) x 100 or 38.27% of the time to BE and anymore to show a profit on the bet. This obv assumes we never win when called and have 0 equity vs his continuing range - this of course isn't the case since I have some equity, so the EV of the bet is likely a bit better than what we determine it to be. At this point I expect him to fold everything but JJ, AJs and AQ.
So things he folds: 99-TT = 12 combos >>>>>>>>> 19 combos
KcQx = 4 combos
KxQc = 3 combos
Things he doesn't fold: JJ = 3 combos >>>>>>>>>>>. 18 combos
AQ = 12 combos
AJs = 3 combos
19/37 x 100 = 51.35%
So he folds more than what we need him to for the double barrel to be +EV if this range is correct.
Okay that's all swell, but could I bet even less and still expect to fold out the same amount of hands? Probably. The key is to work out how little I can bet before I start to fold out enough hands to decrease the EV of the play. I think around $25 or $26 is probably totally fine and will do the same job. So my mistake is my turn bet being too big, although +EV vs this range, not +EV enough since there was a better alternative.
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