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 Originally Posted by rpm
i think these theory discussions would be helped along and get much more interest in the forums if some people posted hands relevant to the week's concepts. also helps translate the theoretical understanding into practical implementation at the tables. thoughts on this?
Think this is a good idea. i'll start. Here's some analysis of bet sizing in a hand i played the other day. Have a look at the hand first and see what you think after you've read the villain description then look at my analysis and compare.
Villain
Villain is 73/26 and limp calls constantly preflop. He seems fishy and stationy and unable to fold much in general.
The Hand
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($100)
UTG ($100)
MP ($150.75)
CO ($128.30)
Hero (Button) ($138.40)
SB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 9 , 9
2 folds, CO calls $1, Hero bets $5, 2 folds, CO calls $4
Flop: ($11.50) 8 , 9, J (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $8, CO calls $8
Turn: ($27.50) 5 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $23, CO calls $23
River: ($73.50) 5 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $58, CO calls $58
Total pot: $189.50
Analysis
Preflop: 5x is a decent isolation size vs this guy because he'll continue with so many worse pairs etc - basically a range that I am doing very well against. This had been my standard iso size vs him so felt he'd continue wide to it, thus i am able to build the pot quickly in position vs a weak range that he'll make a ton of mistakes with.
Flop: Ok so villains range obviously include a ton of draws here, some 2 pairs, other worse made hands that will call a flop bet and a few beter hand though not many, and we'll still have some equity vs a straight. So since villain wont be foliding any draw, pair + draw or worse made hand like 2 pair or top pair to a large bet I'd like to see myself et more in the range of $10-$11 here, to exploit his mistake even more. I think my flop sizing is too small.
Turn: I'm obviously very happy with this turn card and want to keep betting n amout that will cause villain to make the ibggest mistake with his range. Ok so villain's range is comprised of what we thought he'd call the flop bet with, so basically a ton of draws still, some 2 pairs, some top pairs, some pair + draws and possibly some straightsd although this is less likely when he doesn't raise the flop. Given his preflop stats he doesn't have 88 or JJ much since he usually raises these preflop. So now we bet $23 into $27.50, which I think is a good size vs this guy's range since he's stationy, wont fold draws and wont fold a ton of the made hands or pair + draws either. This large bet allows us to bet more on the river by inflating the pot.
River: this is one of the best rivers in the deck, if he's just made a flush we're beating it. I think there's a decent chance he just leads this river with most good flushes here, but he certainly still can have a flush when he checks. I also want to get value from 2 pair, the odd straight and whatever single pair crap he can't let go of. I choose a bet size which is pretty damn big - 6/7ths of pot almost, but not so big that it will dsicourage stationy bad calls from top pair or 2 pair - which i feel he's likely to make. If he has a flush he obviously isn't folding to a shove, but since i think most of his range is weaker made hands at this point when he doesn't lead the river (stuff like JT AJ J9 etc) I want to find the bet size that earns a lot from flushes and straights which he wont ever fold for any price, but also causes him to make a huge mistake by calling with hands that are bluff catchers like AJ or J9.
So as you can see, I'm trying to play vs this stationy villain's range as a whole on each street. I think apart from the flop, the bets are sized well vs his range and I should just near pot the flop to maximise EV on later streets and exploit his mistakes more.
If anyone else wants to go ahead and post a hand with a stab at some bet sizing analysis that'd be swell.
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