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 Originally Posted by relaywisp
Was the bluff profitable?
I put in 3.10, and the pot was (1.60+1.05) 2.65 before my raise. Assuming I lose whenever he doesn't fold flop, he needs to fold 3.10/(3.10+2.65) or ~54% of the time
The original range I had had him folding 164/(119+164) = 58%
Tighter cbet range had him folding 156/(99+156) = 61%
It is possible that the population is cbetting less on dry boards like this. If villain on average is betting 55% instead of 75% here my analysis may be way off.
Quick note for everyone that we're going to look at how to get better estimates of whether we're profitable with semi-bluffs like this later, so the fact that you have outs to a strong hand will be incorporated into the situation later on.
Originally Posted by MarinaD
Since the only way i can win this unimproved hand is bluffing
I just want to point out that him having a low c-bet could mean that he's not necessarily bluffing the flop all that much. Along these lines, he's checking the flop with a number of hands that you beat, so there are plenty that you could check behind and beat with your A-high. It doesn't really change the hand that much by the river, but I just want you to be aware of what could be a slight contradiction in your thought process regarding the turn.
Also, we have a randomness/general chat thread at this link that we'd really like you guys to get in on so that you can meet some cool people here at FTR besides me. 
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