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NLHE Foundations #07: Putting Opponents on Flop Ranges (Part 1)

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  1. #1
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Video NLHE Foundations #07: Putting Opponents on Flop Ranges (Part 1)

    I got your PMs of you wanting more from this series.

    The pre-flop stuff we did before is really the preparation for this lesson and the next two or three that come after it. If you want to find someplace where you can really, really get an advantage against the competition in today's games, then this is it.

    NLHE Foundations #07: Putting Opponents on Flop Ranges (Part 1)

    Post your homework in this thread.
    Last edited by spoonitnow; 08-30-2015 at 01:46 PM.
  2. #2
    Cobra_1878's Avatar
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    Getting this done now.

    This course is a pretty good idea Spoon - it's like being coached for free. Huge props man.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  3. #3
    Cobra_1878's Avatar
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    I don't know if this is enough hands - I only have 26. If not, I can try to look for some more.


    High-card Wet:

    Bet - A7s, TT, J4s, A7s

    Checked - KTo, 97s


    High-card dry:

    Bet - K9s, AKo

    Checked - 77


    Low-card wet:


    Bet - AKo, AKs, Q6s, KTs, J6s

    Checked - JJ, AJo


    Low-card dry:

    Bet -

    Checked - ATo, AQo


    OK, so the first thing I noticed is that villain likes to cbet a lot when he has suited hands. He seems to check his o/s hands and cbet anything that is suited.

    He also seems more likely to cbet on wet board and check on dry boards. I'm not sure what else to say and I have struggled with this a little bit to be honest.

    I might look for someone who I have more hands on.
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  4. #4
    Cobra_1878's Avatar
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    OK, a few more hands here;


    High-card Wet:

    Bet - K9s, KK, 75s, AJs, KK, AQo

    Checked - ATo, 83o, 76s, 32o, K3o, K2s, T4o, 65o, QQ


    High-card dry:

    Bet - A8o, K9o, K3o, KJo, AA, A4o

    Checked - Q5s, K3o, 76o, A4o, J8s, T5s, 86s, J6o, K8s


    Low-card wet:

    Bet - 95s, 96o, Q9o, KTs

    Checked - 43o, K3o, AKo


    Low-card dry:

    Bet - AQo

    Checked - QJo, J4s, QJs, 63s


    OK, so for the high card wet flops he seems to cbet when he has it (value heavy range) and checks when he doesn't. Interestingly, he doesn't appear to even try and take down a flop with a cbet when he has little/no equity with his hand. He has a wide opening range and is looking for a 'good flop'.

    Again, with the high-card dry flops he appears to bet when he has it and check when he doesn't. This can be seen where he both bets and checks with K3o and A4o on the same kind of board - if he hits he bets and if he misses he checks. Villain may be fit or fold when it comes to flop play.

    In fact, I think fit or fold can be applied to all of villain's flop play - regardless of flop texture. He doesn't appear to bet at all on low, dry flops so we can assume if he bets these types of flops he has hit it. Although, he cbets with AQo which doesn't make much sense.

    I think villain may bet/check with the wrong types of hands - bluffing with hands that have good equity/good chance of being the best hand (AQo on low dry board) and checks with all his hands that have little chance of being the best hand (such as his checking range on high card dry flops) where it might be better to bluff at it.
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  5. #5
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    You also need to include the flops that he bet on so that we know what types of hands he's betting with and checking with. You can't really do much with something like "He c-bet K8s," but you can do something with "He's frequently c-betting second pair on dry boards."
  6. #6
    Cobra_1878's Avatar
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    I thought I should include that but I didn't see it stated anywhere.

    My bad, I'll get around to doing that later today. I did think it was a little vague and what I was supposed to be figuring out.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  7. #7
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cobra_1878 View Post
    I thought I should include that but I didn't see it stated anywhere.

    My bad, I'll get around to doing that later today. I did think it was a little vague and what I was supposed to be figuring out.
    Sorry about that. I edited the post itself in the homework section to explain that a little better.

    So I'll make it up to you: You get three free questions in the BC General Chat Thread.
  8. #8
    Cobra_1878's Avatar
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    Man, that's so kind of you! How much do they usually cost :P

    I'll see if I can think of a few things.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  9. #9
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    High-card Wet


    Bet;

    K9s on J93tt (no flush draw)

    KK on J42tt

    75s on Q63tt (has flush draw)

    AJs on AKQr

    KK on Q76tt

    AQo on JT9r


    Checked;

    ATo on K84tt

    83o on KT6tt

    76s on JT2r

    32o on KQ8r

    K3o AQTtt

    K2s on AT9 (mono, no flush)

    T4o on AK8tt

    65o on K33tt

    J6o on Q54r

    QQ on AT6 (mono, no flush draw)


    Analysis - Villain only bets when he has connected with the flop or has a big draw. If villain misses, from this sample, villain always checks. Therefore, I think it's safe to assume that when villain cbets flop he has a piece of it.


    High-card dry


    Bet;

    A8o on AA4

    K9o on J86

    K3o on K86

    KJo on KT7

    AA on QT8

    A4o on KKK


    Checked;

    Q5s on K86

    K3o on Q62

    76o on J93

    A4o on Q96

    J8s on AK4

    T5s on KJ9

    86s on AT3

    K8s on AA2


    Analysis - Again, villain is most likely to bet when he has it. However, there are two hands that he has missed with that he bets so this could mean that villain is slightly more likely to take a stab at high card dry flops.

    Other factors could be effecting his cbets (such as position) but I think we're just going for flop texture and cbet/check in this section.

    If villain misses, again he checks. He doesn't even bet a GSSD either so that tells us villain may be cautious with his smaller draws.


    Low-card wet



    Bet;

    95s on 865tt (has flush draw)

    96o on 986tt

    Q9o on 987tt

    KTs on T32tt (no flush draw)


    Checked;


    K3o on 985tt

    AKo on 933tt


    Analysis - OK, same story. Villain bets when he hits and will bet his big draws. Villain isn't worried about betting top pair on wet boards. Again, if he misses, he checks. He checks back AKo which means villain may have some idea about hands that have showdown value.


    Low-card dry:


    Bet;

    AQo on T44


    Checked;

    QJo on 532

    J4s on T32

    QJs on 953

    63s on 955


    Analysis - Villain takes one stab at a low dry flop. This links into earlier analysis that villain may be more likely to take a stab when the flop is dry. Other than that, it's the same story all around - checks when he misses.

    Overall, I think it's fair to say that villain is fairly fit or fold and is slightly more likely to take a stab at a pot when the flop is dry. Villain isn't worried about betting any pair, even on wet boards, and will bet his big draws as well.
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  10. #10
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    This is really good work. If everyone would put this work in, we'd have a new generation of FTR ballers by next summer.

    Could you post the stats you have on this guy? VPIP, PFR, 3Bet, Steal%, CBet Flop, Fold CBet Flop etc. A part of doing this analysis as a group is spotting patterns between sets of stats and general modes of play to make reading players easier and more accurate.

    I hope you realize how much you could just pick pots off of this guy if he checks the flop instead of putting in continuation bets. It also puts you in a situation where calling his pre-flop raises (especially in position) would mean you could absolutely murder him.
    Last edited by spoonitnow; 09-03-2015 at 04:35 PM.
  11. #11
    Cobra_1878's Avatar
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    Thanks Spoon.

    My bad, completely forgot to add his stats.

    Villain: 32/28 with a 6% 3bet. Steals 61% from LP.

    Cbet flop 49%, FTCB on flop 54%. Cbet turn 20%, FTCB on turn 56%.

    I literally added what you just said into my notes for villain on PT straight after I had finished my analysis so I know exactly what to do the next time I play him.

    I've got to say, this course is giving me a whole new view on poker. I feel like I'm enjoying it more than ever.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cobra_1878 View Post
    Thanks Spoon.

    My bad, completely forgot to add his stats.

    Villain: 32/28 with a 6% 3bet. Steals 61% from LP.

    Cbet flop 49%, FTCB on flop 54%. Cbet turn 20%, FTCB on turn 56%.

    I literally added what you just said into my notes for villain on PT straight after I had finished my analysis so I know exactly what to do the next time I play him.

    I've got to say, this course is giving me a whole new view on poker. I feel like I'm enjoying it more than ever.
    I'm glad to hear this.
  13. #13
    Villain stats

    VPIP: 24
    PFR: 15
    AF: 3
    3Bet: 4.2
    ATS: 41


    Cbet range:



    High-card Wet:


    Bet: AQo on KJ9r, JJ on AdJcTd, JJ on Qs7s3h, AQo on Js4s4h, A9o on KhAh9s, 98hh on Ks8sJc, 77 on JhTd4d, 99 on Qh6d5d, A8o on KcJhTc, A3o on KsJd2s, A6o on Ac7d5d, Q7hh on KT9r, K3ss on AdJd4d, QT on KdKc3c, 98ss on KsQs2c, 77 on QT9r, KThh on Jd9d2c, 67hh on Jd7s5s, 35o on QT4r, A4dd on Jh5h3d, J9h on J86r, 65dd on KsJd4d, 52hh on Kc3d2d, 93cc on Tc2cJh

    Check: KQo on Ks9s9d, A9o on Qc6s2s, AKhh on KdAc9c, 55 on JT7r, 88 on Qs5h9s, QQ on AT6r, 32cc on Ac2h6h, ATss on Jh9s6h, 99 on Kh8h2s, AA on AcTc4d, AQo on JT7r, AQo on QJ8r, 97hh on JhTd3d, A6dd on KJ7r, AKss on Kd7dJc, 44 on Kd5d7c, 86hh on AcKc7d, Q9cc on Ks9d3s, AJo on Qh7s5s, QQ on JT7sss, AQo on Ah9hTs, 99 on Ah6h4c, 43cc on Qc9c6c, Ad7dKs,


    So it looks like he maybe he checks a lot with mid-big pairs on A and K hi wet boards? pot control?

    seems like he does bet his draws more often than not...


    High-card dry:

    Bet:
    99 on J24r, AJo on Q93r, A9s on Jc3c7h, AKo on K98r, AQo on Qd7s4s, KQs on K6Tr, AQdd on As6dKh, A9o on AA2r, AKo on K62r, KJss on A82r, AA on Q77r, K3o on A85r, 97dd on QQ8r, T4o on KKTr

    Check: A8dd on K74r, KJcc on A93r, KJo on Q32r, 65dd on 323r, AKo on KJ2r, AK on J95r, A8s on Q82r, QQ on A66r, TT on J73r, ATo on K22r, A6ss on K58r, A9c on Kh3c2h, KQo on Jh6h3s, 99 on Q84r, KJ on A46r, A2s on A9Ar, AKo on A8Jr, 98o on AA5r, 55 on AQ9r, A2o on J57r, J3s on J76r, 64ss on Q59r, AQo on QQ6r, A4o on A97r, ATs on Q85r, 66 on JT4r


    always bets TP, checks underpairs, checks second pair.... looks like he often checks when he has a monster too...


    Low-card wet:

    Bet: TT on 8c8h6c, Q8dd on Jh9h7h, Q8hh on 9d2d8c, JJ on 8s6s4s, 88 on 6h6c2c, A4cc on 4h4s2s, 65cc on Kd8d4c, AQo on 9h2h5h, TT on 9d9h2h, 22 on Th9h2s, J8dd on 7h6c2h, A7o on TsTh5h, QJo on 9s6s4h, J5dd on Ts9c5c, 42dd on 4s4h3h, 77 on Ts6h2s, AKo on 9h6c2h, A4o on 9s3h2s

    Check: A6dd on 9c4d3c, 66 on 594c, QTcc on 9s8s8h, QThh on 9s9c5c, AQo on 6c7d3d, QThh on 543r, QJhh on Th7c2c, A6ss on Td7d6c, AJo on 788r, A9o on 823ddd, ATdd on 8h5c7h, JTo on 9c3h4c, A5cc on 6c5s4s


    bets overpairs, bets sets... seems to play fit or fold on these boards



    Low-card dry:

    Bet: A8hh on 362r, QTo on 864r, 42ss on 432r, QQ on 262r, AK on 992r

    Check: 99 on 922r, TT on 763, KJo on 762r, AJo on 347r, TT on 337r, 33 on 885r, QJo on 643r, KTo on 442r, 65ss on 997r, A9o on 6T6r, A7hh on 332, 84ss on T32r, T6ss on 742r, 85cc on 353r, Q7o on T66r, J5o on 633r, TT on 935r

    doesnt seem to bet very much on these boards, checks when he missed - very fit or fold here


    Im not quite sure if im doing this right anybody spot anything glaring im missing here?
  14. #14
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    This is really good work, siriusisness. Could you post his c-bet stat as well?
  15. #15
    cbet is 75% - this is too much yeah?

    fold to cbet is 48%

    call cbet is 111%??? ---- huh? what does this mean?
  16. #16
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by siriusisness View Post
    cbet is 75% - this is too much yeah?

    fold to cbet is 48%

    call cbet is 111%??? ---- huh? what does this mean?
    There's not really an idea of "too much" in terms of specific numbers because it all depends on what kind of ranges he's seeing the flop with.

    The reason I asked you for these stats and the lesson you should pick up on here is that he's got a PFR of 15% and a c-bet of 75% and this means he's mostly just betting his hand face-up (including semi-bluffing with flush or straight draws). To give you an idea of what I mean and how this is useful, if you see another opponent with a PFR of 20% and a c-bet of 75%, then that would most likely mean he's bluffing more than this guy (since he's seeing the flop with more hands, relatively speaking).

    The call c-bet percentage I'm not sure about. It might be some kind of error.
  17. #17
    i see, i see...
  18. #18
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    I want to see more people posting in this thread and #6 before I add anything else to this series.

    We're really getting into the stuff that will turn poker into your personal ATM, so make sure you do it.
  19. #19
    villains stats

    VPIP 19 PFR 13 AST 27 FTS 75
    3BET 2.5 Fold to 3bet 46 unopened from button 29 Cbet 53

    High Card and Wet Board

    Checks

    AdKd Qh6s2s Checks oop Ace high
    2d2s Kd4c9d Checks IP bottom pair
    4s4d Ad5cQd Checks oop bottom pair
    8h8c JsAdQs Checks IP bottom pair
    As9d 6d5hQh Checks IP Ace high
    AsTc 7c6dJd Checks IP Ace high
    KcJh 6sQs2h Checks Ip K high
    AsKc 5sJsJd Checks oop Ace High
    ThTd 6sKc2c Checks oop second pair


    Bets

    AsQs JsTsAd Cbets oop Top Pair good kicker
    QhJd 3d4hAd Cbets oop Q high
    9s8s 3cAs4s Cbets 4way oop 4 Flush
    KdQc AdJc4c Cbets oop Straight draw
    AdKh 7sQs6d Cbets oop high card
    9d9s Qs2d8s Cbets 3way oop second pair 3 flush
    AhAc KsTcJs Cbets IP top pair
    Ac5h 7hAh3s Cbets oop top pair 3flush


    High Card and Dry Board


    Checks

    KsQc Jc7s3d Checks oop K high
    2s2c Jd5s7h Checks oop 3 way
    AhTh 6s3dQc Checks IP A high
    JdJh 4s3dJc Checks made set IP
    8c8d As4hAc Checks oop second pair

    Bets

    AsQc 8s6dJc Cbets oop A high


    Low Card and Wet Board


    Checks

    AsQc 3s4d2d Checks oop A high Straight draw
    4h4s 3s3h9c Checks oop second pair
    AhKc 2d4s5s Checks IP A high

    Bets

    AcAh 9h6h6s Cbets oop top pair
    9c8c 7c2s4c Cbets 4 way oop 4flush and over cards
    9h9d 4s2s7d Cbets oop overpair to board


    Low Card Dry Board


    Checks

    2c2s 8h2d6s Checks IP Made set
    Ah5h 8d9c3s Checks IP A High
    AcJd 8c9c3s Checks Ip A High

    Bets

    AsTc Ts3c9d Cbets oop TPTK
    As8s 9c2h8d Cbets second pair oop
    TdTh 2s6c4h Cbets IP overpair to board


    We can see here the villain has a high tendency to bet when he hits and checks when he misses, calling flop bets light is a bad idea but attacking flops or turns when he checks flop will be a good play, his cbet stat of 53 backs up that he bets when he hits flops and some strong draws, has a possible tendency to check made sets
  20. #20
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    high card + wet
    check: 4d3d on 4h5hKd, As8s on 6h7dKd, AhQd on 2s3hKs
    bet: AsAd on 6hJh4h, AsAd on Kc2c6h, Ah10c on JhKhQc, AsKs on KhQsAh

    high card + dry
    check: 22 on Kc7dAs, 10c10s on Jh8sKd
    bet: JcJs on Ad4s2h, Ah10d on JdJs2c

    low card + wet
    check: As5s on 8s7s8d, 6h5h on 7hTd3d
    bet: 9s9d on 7c9c8s

    low card + dry
    check: 3c3d on 2s7d9c, AdKd on 8s5d10c
    bet:

    Pretty much fit or fold poker
    Plays draws passively
    Bets only with top pair +
    Tendency gets confirmed through the cbet flop % of 33%
    WTSD 31 seems a bit high

    Villain Stats:

    VPIP / PFR / ATs / TOT 3bet / Fold to Steal / Cbet Flop / WTSD

    15 / 10 / 18 / 2 / 82 / 33 / 31

    Please give us the next lessons Spoon!
    I love doing them and hopefully they'll make me a winning player.
  21. #21
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    You guys should make sure you're getting the most from these lessons by going over the data and stats that other players are posting and deciding if you would come to the same conclusions. Discussing these things in these threads is what will get you the most mileage out of these lessons.
  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by doddly10 View Post
    villains stats

    VPIP 19 PFR 13 AST 27 FTS 75
    3BET 2.5 Fold to 3bet 46 unopened from button 29 Cbet 53

    We can see here the villain has a high tendency to bet when he hits and checks when he misses, calling flop bets light is a bad idea but attacking flops or turns when he checks flop will be a good play, his cbet stat of 53 backs up that he bets when he hits flops and some strong draws, has a possible tendency to check made sets
    Nice analysis Doddly10!

    I would further note that he bets his draws and OOP he sometimes leads with only paint cards, doesn't matter which kind of flop.

    How can we exploit this kind of player?

    My ideas are:

    *calling when IP with more hands like middle pair +
    *increase reraise bluffing range when in IP and he leads with a cbet OOP
    Last edited by ErnieohneBert; 09-29-2015 at 11:17 AM.
  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
    There's not really an idea of "too much" in terms of specific numbers because it all depends on what kind of ranges he's seeing the flop with.
    Can u please outline some basic stat ranges for the ones important in this context?

    Im thinking of cbet %, fold to cbet, WTS, fold to raise etc. Please add the ones you think are important.

    For example cbet between 50 and 60 might be normal, above means x, under means y.
  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by ErnieohneBert View Post
    Nice analysis Doddly10!

    I would further note that he bets his draws and OOP he sometimes leads with only paint cards, doesn't matter which kind of flop.

    How can we exploit this kind of player?

    My ideas are:

    *calling when IP with more hands like middle pair +
    *increase reraise bluffing range when in IP and he leads with a cbet OOP
    yeah the cbet with face cards oop comes up a lot, calling middle pair on flop IP and then fold to further aggression on the turn maybe as he usually checks turns if missed and had air on the flop,

    your analysis shows the same passive play, bet when hit and check if missed, the players seem to play only their cards and do not have thoughts of board textures and how it effects players in the hand,

    i went back and looked at a player of 15/13 tight aggressive player, ill post it later and we can look at some differences

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