NL25 deep river shove

Villain is 25/8.8/3.0 over 100 hands
On the river I muttered to myself "I'm going to bet/call but it's not like I'll call a shove"
Do I call the shove?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($50.75)
MP1 ($22.35)
MP2 ($30.05)
CO ($64.45)
Button ($54.45)
Hero (SB) ($33.80)
BB ($7.80)
UTG ($50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, 7
4 folds, CO raises to $0.85, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.95) J, Q, J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($1.95) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $1, CO calls $1

River: ($3.95) A (2 players)
Hero bets $3, CO raises to $32.50, Hero?

I'd have hard time folding a boat here 'cause...
1) It's a boat, which makes me living proof of that theorem thing that says people don't usually fold boats
2) A significant portion of the time I see this giant overshoves, it's not for value
3) I would think that QQ, AJ or QJ would have raised you on the turn to try and build a pot... so KT, KJ, JT, AK, AQ also make sense - all of which I beat... plus some small percentage for total bluff.
4) Combining 2 and 3, I prolly gambool a bit and call.

here's the thing, his hand had to be good enough to slowplay on the flop because someone with AF of 3 is generally cbetting an all-paints flop since those are his cards

AK only makes sense if he checked behind to draw for free
but if he has AK he just turned his hand into a bluff when it has legitimate showdown value... would he do that? maybe

JJ, AJ, QQ beat us and slowplay the flop
but JJ wouldn't make sense because there would be no hand he could possibly shove for value into us
AJ can hope for worse trips to call and the huge overshove would get paid off by good hands, while bad hands can't call a small raise either so the overshove is higher EV...

I think AJ is the most likely hand because he raised on the river because the river improved him

Originally Posted by iopq

I think AJ is the most likely hand because he raised on the river because the river improved him

I'd put KJ & KT in that category too, both of which fit his line. KT playing passively on an OESD that hits on the river and KJ putting you on something like AQ based on your line (your 1/2 pot on the Turn doesn't look particularly threatening... maybe TPTK feeler scared of trips?)

One of those times when it's nice to have some kinda history that fills out the bluff factor... Altho' if he's got a made straight or trip-Js he's obv thinking pure value.

I don't see how he can value shove a medium-strength hand 200BB deep
it's like a lose-lose because I call when I'm ahead and I fold when I'm behind

the only thing a straight can get value from is trips, but JTs is not even in my range here
he doesn't know that, but that's the only hand a straight can beat that will pay a straight off

a bluff is not logical either because you win the minimum and lose the maximum
While I am not saying that those hands are not possible, I'm trying to determine if I'm good here more than half of the time

Originally Posted by iopq

the only thing a straight can get value from is trips, but JTs is not even in my range here
he doesn't know that, but that's the only hand a straight can beat that will pay a straight off

add KJs/o... and possibly J8 or J9s (since this is a PFR from the CO...) depending on his read of you and whether he thinks you can lay down trips...

I guess to flip it to what he thinks of you (assuming he's holding a straight or trips...), is this level completely devoid of f-cktards that would call this shove with top 2 (you with AQ...) this deep? I've only got 50K hands or so in at 25 and I've seen people do this kinda thing....

IMHO, it's close. I come back to laying down a full house... I really, really hate doing it 'cause of all the crap we've seen people do sh!t with coming up through the lower micros. Anything less I'd drop in a heartbeat... but I'd be interested to see the math to see exactly how close to 50% you are on this.

Originally Posted by sarbox68

Originally Posted by iopq

the only thing a straight can get value from is trips, but JTs is not even in my range here
he doesn't know that, but that's the only hand a straight can beat that will pay a straight off

add KJs/o... and possibly J8 or J9s (since this is a PFR from the CO...) depending on his read of you and whether he thinks you can lay down trips...

I guess to flip it to what he thinks of you (assuming he's holding a straight or trips...), is this level completely devoid of f-cktards that would call this shove with top 2 (you with AQ...) this deep? I've only got 50K hands or so in at 25 and I've seen people do this kinda thing....

IMHO, it's close. I come back to laying down a full house... I really, really hate doing it 'cause of all the crap we've seen people do sh!t with coming up through the lower micros. Anything less I'd drop in a heartbeat... but I'd be interested to see the math to see exactly how close to 50% you are on this.

interesting thread, i will join the discussion...Actually sarbox, the math issue is simple because we can use pokerstove...the important thing here is the range we put villain on. From what i have read so far, iopq thinks that range is very thin, you put him on a wider range. I am more inclined to think of a range closer to yours. However, it would be interesting to run pokerstove through different ranges, beginning with the thinnest and ending with the widest, and see how wide should our villains range be in order to make the call profitable. I would do it right now, but im at work so i cant. I will do it when i get home, unless someone beats me and does it first.

I don't think the range is very thin, I just think it's heavily WEIGHED towards stronger hands that want value

My reasoning goes as follows:
AJ plays this way at least some of the time because he has the nuts
KT doesn't play this way because he will lose his entire stack when wrong and win a 3 dollar pot when right

so given the line, AJ is several times more likely than KT
there is no way to put that into pokerstove, now is there?

Originally Posted by iopq

I don't think the range is very thin, I just think it's heavily WEIGHED towards stronger hands that want value

My reasoning goes as follows:
AJ plays this way at least some of the time because he has the nuts
KT doesn't play this way because he will lose his entire stack when wrong and win a 3 dollar pot when right

so given the line, AJ is several times more likely than KT
there is no way to put that into pokerstove, now is there?

no, there isn´t. However, that doesnt mean it is impossible to do the calculations. What exactly would you say villains range is and how do you weigh each possible hand? With that data it will be possible to know if the call is +ev or not.

Originally Posted by iopq

I don't think the range is very thin, I just think it's heavily WEIGHED towards stronger hands that want value

My reasoning goes as follows:
AJ plays this way at least some of the time because he has the nuts
KT doesn't play this way because he will lose his entire stack when wrong and win a 3 dollar pot when right

so given the line, AJ is several times more likely than KT
there is no way to put that into pokerstove, now is there?

I think really our main difference in opinion is you believe vil would only take this line with top full house or better...

I trust in the persistence of idiots (myself included...)

Unless you've got the reads to back it up, I think you're giving vil just enough too much credit to make this > 50% call. But I could also spew...

look like a fold

I'd 3bet PF

agreed with sparta

What river push size would you consider a call correct?

in my experience at 25nl people only do this for two reasons as they dont really understand the concept of betting: 1) the action before the river didnt put enough money in the pot so now the only way to make up for it is shove and hope it looks like a bluff 2) its just a huge bluff. I have a hard time believing that he would take this line with a weak jack, especially the river shove because its just scary to anyone. j8 is hardly safe here. I think option 1 is the most likely here. This looks like a perfect example of it. I think its a fold...though in the moment I cant say I would (cause im an idiot)

i wanted iopq to give me the specific range of villain he is thinking about. Since i didn´t get an answer(at least until now), i will do the math work with my own range and assumptions.
My range for villain is:
AA;QQ;JJ;QJ;AJ;KTs;KJ;J9s+

The other important assumption is that villain will take this line 100% of the time he has the bigger boat, but only 30% of the time he has trips or the str8.

With this parameters, EV(call) is -4.63. So the common opinion here of a fold would agree with the results.

However, the interesting thing is, that if villain takes this line 100% of the time he has the bigger boat, but 60% of the time with trips or a str8, EV(call) is 1.96. And this result goes up to 10.75 when villain takes this line 100% of the time with all his range.

To answer sarbox´s question(what push can we call?), with the original assumptions we can only call a min raise(a $6 bet), anything higher than that is -EV. That is with the original assumptions. Of course this result changes greatly loosening our assumptions on villain.

In conclusion, the numbers related to the decision are the ones above. It is a matter of what we think about our villain what will decide if this call is +EV or not.

PS.: please correct my numbers if they´re wrong in any way

settecba, I would probably agree with your range and assumptions

In calculating "how big of a bet can we call" as you pointed out we can not assume that tight of a range on a smaller bet

to answer sarbox's question: we can only call a bet that seems a "normal size"

so I'd say I'd call up to 2x PSB or so because a 4x PSB or whatever is pretty much almost a shove anyway so he'd have about the same range

and I'd say 3x PSB is "close" but that's just speculation, I can't really say that accurately because we have little information on the opponent

Originally Posted by iopq

settecba, I would probably agree with your range and assumptions

In calculating "how big of a bet can we call" as you pointed out we can not assume that tight of a range on a smaller bet

to answer sarbox's question: we can only call a bet that seems a "normal size"

so I'd say I'd call up to 2x PSB or so because a 4x PSB or whatever is pretty much almost a shove anyway so he'd have about the same range

and I'd say 3x PSB is "close" but that's just speculation, I can't really say that accurately because we have little information on the opponent

you are right iopq, a smaller bet means a different range, or at least more balanced, so i agree with you, we can call a "normal" bet.

The river is a pretty easy fold. You can call a much smaller bet.

i'd whine and muck... :-\