NL20, take a free card against big overpair?

$0.1/$0.2 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Nokimodem ($25.04)
UTG+1 playcazry ($19.70)
MP1 SheriTiger ($18.90)
MP2 emae ($9.20)
CO Hero ($20.00)
BTN DerOmmel ($18.46)
SB CTONEZEROFIVE ($8.35)
BB Conehead27 ($4.91)

Pre-flop: ($0.30, 8 players) Hero is CO
Nokimodem calls $0.20, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.80, 3 folds, Nokimodem raises to $2.40, Hero calls $1.60

Flop: ($5.30, 2 players)
Nokimodem checks, Hero ??


By limp raising, Villain is basically annoucing that he has either kings or aces. We caught the dream flop, question is : do we take a free card or bet right here?

If we take the free card, and it doesn't help us, our equity takes a hit and villain is guaranteed to pot it (he usually checks the flop to CRAI), thus we lose direct pot odds. Implied odds would become 5.3:22.7 or roughly 1:4. I'm confident he will stackoff on any card and on any street.
On a blank turn we have 17 outs against an overpair (9 flush, 3 gutshot, 5 2pr or trips), giving us around 35% equity, or 1:2.

So take the free card or get it in on the flop? (also is my math correct?)

will he stack off if you hit?

If he will then Id guess it would be better to take the free card and sometimes stack him with 100% equity or close and sometimes fold rather than always flipping for the relatively small pot.

Having said that youll probably be priced to call most turns anyway... but you can probably fold the river sometimes.

FREE CARD FTW!!!

KK+ as you suggested

Originally Posted by Pokerstove

equity | win| tie| pots won| pots tied|
Hand 0: 43.182% 42.73% 00.45% 5076 54.00 { KK+ }
Hand 1: 56.818% 56.36% 00.45% 6696 54.00 { 6c5c }

KK+ with a few sets, since he will deffinately continue with these hands.

Originally Posted by Pokerstove

Hand 0: 49.888% 49.43% 00.46% 9297 87.00 { KK+, 88, 66, 44 }
Hand 1: 50.112% 49.65% 00.46% 9339 87.00 { 6c5c }

And a loose stack off range(rare obv.)

Originally Posted by Pokerstove

Hand 0: 32.648% 32.06% 00.59% 26659 491.00 { 22+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 67.352% 66.76% 00.59% 55519 491.00 { 6c5c }

I think Playing this hand aggressivly will pay off long term. But, IMAFISH.

nice ranges kid.

I wanted to do the math to confirm the intuition that taking a free card when you know that you don't have FE and that you will get paid if you hit is so much +EV.

It seems actually very obvious, but my reasoning might be flawed.

So we assume we have no FE if we bet/3bet the flop, and that villain has KK+ (or QQ+ for what it matters) as stated gosam and wellrounded08

If we go AI on the flop,
we lose 20-(0.8+1.6) = -17.60$ with a probability of 43.2%
we win 5.3+17.60 = + 22.90$ with a probability of 56.8%
=>EV = ( 13 - 7.60) = +5.4$

Now if we take the free card and we assume also that villain check turns allowing to take another free card if we don't it. That's a bit of an optimistic hypothesis, but villain seems a bit retarded and might actually just throw a small bet and anyway that makes math easier

we lose 0 with a probabiliy of 43.2%
but we still wins 5.3+17.60 = + 22.90$ with a probability of 56.8% (if we hit turn or river and get paid nonetheless)
=> EV = +13$

Math seems actually a bit dumb, but it makes obvious that taking free cards if we know that villain won't fold but will call if we hit later is far better.

Originally Posted by xX zorrito Xx

FREE CARD FTW!!!

Damn, somebody gave a better summary before!

If you're trying to prove that taking a free card is better than shoving the flop, you should assume THE LEAST POSSIBLE especially if that assumption skews towards a check
So don't assume a free card on the turn

Originally Posted by iopq

you should assume THE LEAST POSSIBLE

Well the whole thing of weighting choices according equity is about working on assumptions in order to come up with some results The aren't 'least' assumptions, but you are true that there are favorable and unfavorable ones.

I agree that assuming that villain will give another free turn card 100% of the time is optimistic. Villain seems to be a bit retarded and very excited about his hand, I'd assume he would toss a half size bet.

I could factor that, as well as scarce card wich may slow him down, but it might be an overkill : don't you agree that taking the free card is good?

I'm talking about in general
When trying to prove something, if you can do it with the most unfavorable assumptions and still get a slightly better result is a better proof than doing it with the most favorable assumptions and getting a huge result

Actually, the math here is very simple. Who has more equity on the flop vs KK+?
I'll let you pokerstove it.


Ok, did you notice that we have more equity in the pot? So we probably want to get the money in now, since as gosam stated, villain will probably c/r AI, and if he just c/r we can reraise AI. According to some regs, this is Stnd.

Bet raise shove etc. Letting a blank come on the turn kills your value.

Originally Posted by xX zorrito Xx

FREE CARD FTW!!!

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Bet raise shove etc. Letting a blank come on the turn kills your value.

This.

Plus you have to think of your metagame. I know it doesn't really apply down at these limits but there are *some* regs here and being very aggressive with a strong draw will help hide your monsters a lot more than waiting for your flush/straight before you bet.

Like others have already analysed you're actually a favourite against KK+ so go ahead and get it all in because that'll be +EV in the long term.
Also I wouldn't put limp/re-raises on always KK/AA (unless you've seen them do it before) because I've seen some pretty stupid people at this limit and they can do it with any PP and just garbage too..

Clar

I know I'm a beginner, so please don't flame me if my advice is bad.

I think the more seasoned the opponent is, the more you should bet into the pot. If you're seen as a TAG player, or any type of person representing strengthy knowledge on hold'em, the payoff is going to be shitty when the turn nuts you.

If its a fish player or some sort of aggro player, checking would give you a higher +EV versus a tight/Tag player. The agro player might shove all in as a 3bet if they misread you when you make your hand. Betting preturn doesn't matter if you're going to get all their stack anyways, so checking does no harm, and it fools the fishies .

The other reason is that, if you bet into the turn, you have a good +V control of betting. That means, you get to decide the way the game will turn. You can bet as much as you think will get him to fold, call, or raise. You get to make him make the difficult decisions of poker, while you know how much you are willing to commit already.

I feel when its heads up and you're the UTG hero, betting into the pot will give you more position than checking.

Again, this is ALL under the assumption he has a Monster over pair. If the Villain is on some sort of draw like you, or has a low set, this advice is completely useless, and i'd almost always check over.

If you guys disagree please explain too, I might have overlooked something!

did you see the limp/reraise?

Originally Posted by iopq

did you see the limp/reraise?

Doesn't that mean he has either a monster or a high connector?
Since the hero already isolated the players, he has more of an ability to play his hand. I suppose you pointing that out makes me think now that he doesn't have a monster hand but a high connector, or possibly a nut flush ace. Possibly QA-JA clubs?