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A nit makes a surprise shove (5NL)
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com
UTG ($6.63)
Hero (MP) ($9.35)
Button ($5.93)
SB ($5.27)
BB ($8)
Preflop: Hero is MP with J , K
UTG bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, 1 fold, SB calls $0.18, 1 fold
Flop: ($0.65) 8 , Q , A (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($0.65) 10 (3 players)
SB bets $0.30, UTG calls $0.30, Hero raises to $1.10, SB calls $0.80, 1 fold
River: ($3.15) A (2 players)
SB bets $3.97 (All-In), Hero chuckles.
BB is a 12/10 nit, I haven't seen any real aggression from him till this hand. So BB probably called here with no worse than ATo preflop. It really depends now on whether we think he got to this river with AJ and decided to suicide shovel it in. Without AJ in his river shoving range, this is a fold assuming he does this with {88,TT,AK,AQ,AT,KJs}. With AJ included it becomes a marginally +EV call.
Before people start discounting flopped sets and two pairs, note that villain leads the turn, which is exactly what a missed check/raise would do.
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