NFD OTF vs. Massive Overbet

Villain is VP:66 PF:21 Agg: 3 over 67

Has previously limp/called Q2o against me from BTN, and called PFRs with 65s (BB) and J7o (CO), has bet flop with 1) Air, 2) an OESD and 3) 88 on AJ3r, and raised once when he flopped trip Jacks.

I've no idea how (or IF) to narrow his range.

His best made hand is a Set; i have a 35% chance of a in the next 2 cards.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($16.77)
Hero (Button) ($5.39)
SB ($5)
BB ($4.77)
UTG ($8.36)
MP ($6.56)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 7
2 folds, CO calls $0.05, Hero bets $0.25, 1 fold, BB calls $0.20, CO calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.77) 9, 3, 10 (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets $2.65, Hero ???

I'm all-in and it's not even that close. He's definitely wide enough here. Once you factor in the fact he is raising AT/99/TT pre and the fact he can literally have a tonne of worst flush draws this becomes the most lol shove ever.

Your equity is like 30% against sets and two pair and you're getting 1.3:1 pot odds. The answer is obvious unless you factor in air and/or worse FD draws, and with this guy I think you have to.

this guy's so retardedly aggressive that we have to throw all sorts of shit in. Without doing the maths, I think only putting QJ and worse FDs on top of like 2pr+ makes our equity good enough to shovel and he's probably wider than that.

Against someone who is playing so many hands, it's also quite possible that hitting one the other 3 aces may be enough if he has one pair on the flop.

To quote of my favorite ftr posts

"I don't know if its +EV but I like gambling"

also mcat/bikes theorem says jam

Originally Posted by Arjonius

Against someone who is playing so many hands, it's also quite possible that ace high is good

fyp

shove, not close
you are already ahead with A-high a non-zero % of the time

Originally Posted by d0zer

Without doing the maths....

i was kinda hoping someone would, tho

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

i was kinda hoping someone would, tho

I did, you are like 47% v what I figure is the worst range you are against. This is without including worst flush draws etc. You need 47% if he just shoved(if you ship you have 0FE ldo). It isn't hard so do it yourself.

Snap shove. So many flips and worse hands he could have here and there is already a nice chunk of change in the pot.

That said, I'd expect to see like T8o here...

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

i was kinda hoping someone would, tho

just trust my gut imo.

Originally Posted by d0zer

just trust my gut imo.

heh. i did. i just don't think my gut's as trustworthy as yours yet

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

You need 47% if he just shoved

thanks - this was the bit i was unsure about - i just use the same calc as if i'm calling his all-in, yes?

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

heh. i did. i just don't think my gut's as trustworthy as yours yet



thanks - this was the bit i was unsure about - i just use the same calc as if i'm calling his all-in, yes?

basically yes. In this spot i wouldn't be to concerned by the maths. That's just me , i'm a degenerate. overcard , NFD vs retard. shiiat u got a BDSTD as well. ok let's dance