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Welcome.
Some thoughts, good first attempt.
The key to poker is to not think about poeple having X or not having X. It is about thinking what hands are possible, and how your hand stacks up against the RANGE of there hand. This will make a lot of sense soon enough.
Like for example when you raise preflop, your callers have a range of hands that is something like 22+ (means pocket twos and higher), suited connectors, and a bunch of suited aces (like Ace of hearts and a 2 of hearts), They also have a bunch of jt hands, but overall on the flop the number of hands that missed this flop FAR FAR FAR out number hands that hit, and most importantly you bet because many worse hands call you, like flush draws and lower pocket pairs.
But, you bet small, which allows even pocket 33 to continue profitable, not to mention any flush draw.
Try downloading PokerStove: Poker Software and Analysis it is the base of poker.
!luck
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