Need advice....... Badly:(

Hey all,

I'm a long time FTR observer, but new to the forums. I have a semi-serious cash game every week with 9 other like minded gamblers (in Australia) and I'm hoping for some advice on my strategy.

Most on the table have about 6 months experience and we're all of a similar skill level and we generally get good reads on each other because we play every week. The winners circle is reasonablewell distributed with one exception : ME !!

I think there are a couple of reasons for this, and the first (I hesistate to say it) is consistent bad luck. Out of every 10 hands, I'm lucky if a get better than a Q6 suited, and at least 50% of my hands are 72o's, or 95o/s or similar. If i do get a semi reasonable hand I'm usually out of position.

My resulting strategy is to play tight till I hit a Group 6 hand or better, then play the hand cautiously (because everyone knows if i don't fold pre-flop I've got a monster, and i just don't have the cards to see the occasional hand to the flop) and try and get some of my stack back. This tends to work OK, I'm usually in the last 4 at the table, but I'm constantly behind the 8-ball, and can never compete with the chip leaders at this stage and usually bow out 4th, due to a combinaton of blinds killing me and not hitting percentages when i do play a hand

Worse still, by the time I actually get dealt a monster or manage to limp in to see a flop and hit a flush or open ended straight draw, I never get the percentages and always lose the pot. For example, if I play an outside straight or flush draw all the way to river 5 or 6 times, I'll be real lucky to hit my out even once onthe turn or river

A further example of this is for the last 3 weeks running, I've gone all-in preflop with a moderately low chip stack (200 all-in with 4 or 5 players on the table, and a 400 chip start for everyone) after a 3X BB raise from someone in position, with myself having KK or AA. The player who raised 3X usually folds, but I usually get called by the chip leader with 8 10 o/s and end up going down to that hand with an 8 and 10 or a straight showing on the board without even picking up a set for my AA or KK !!

I try and use this to my advantage by blufffing and semi bluffing when i get bored of bad hands and it tends to scare a few people off post-flop and pick up a few blinds here and there, but I'm rarely up, and usually the chip leader/s are 4x or 6x my stack by the time we get down to 5 or 6 on the table.

So in essence, I play ultra tight aggresive on a medium loose table (30% call the big blinds each hand) try and minimise my losses, capitalise on some big hands, bluff where i can to counteract losing blinds, but i constantly fail to be on the right side of the percentages and inevitably go out on a bad beat (like my nickname suggests).

I've read up some strategies on this site and a few others, and I think I'm playing it relatively well, but I was wondering if there is an alternative strategy for consistently not getting playable hands, or having "bad luck". I haven't gone heads up in 3 months, and haven't won a night in 6 months. Any suggestions ??

Sorry to tell you, but luck is always the weak's player excuse.
Even if you do have bad luck (which I can not believe you have for 6 monthes - a few weeks maybe but not 6 months) there is nothing you can do about it. What you can do is improve your game.
You claim you are tight agressive, but from your post I think you are playing tight passive. The rest of the players know that and use that.
Play much more agressively.
For one session play raise or fold only.
Bluff a bit more - I bet you almost do not bluff.
You have to make the other players respect and fear you more

Originally Posted by bad_beat_bandit

Hey all,

I'm a long time FTR observer, but new to the forums. I have a semi-serious cash game every week with 9 other like minded gamblers (in Australia) and I'm hoping for some advice on my strategy.

G’Day Mate!! Welcome to FTR

Originally Posted by bad_beat_bandit

I think there are a couple of reasons for this, and the first (I hesistate to say it) is consistent bad luck.

Unfortunately, as TLR says, I don’t think it likely that you would be this unlucky for so long. But don’t worry, We’ll sort that out for you !

Originally Posted by bad_beat_bandit

because everyone knows if i don't fold pre-flop I've got a monster, and i just don't have the cards to see the occasional hand to the flop

You need to loosen up slightly. If you are only playing monsters, then it is no wonder you get no action on your hands when you do. As for getting no cards, can you be a bit more specific? What kind of hands are we talking about? What do you do with hands like small pp’s 22-66? Mid pp’s 66 – 99? What about drawing hands like QJs?

Originally Posted by bad_beat_bandit

My resulting strategy is to play tight till I hit a Group 6 hand or better, then play the hand cautiously

You can’t just sit and camp. And you definitely can’t camp and then play them cautiously. I like TLR’s idea of playing a hand solely for a raise or fold.

Also, you have to understand that the more players bust out, the more you have to loosen up.

Other than that, it is tough to gauge precisely what you mean without seeing some of your hands etc but, without sounding harsh, it is tough to believe you have been this unlucky for this long.

Another thing you could do is either get Ventrilo or mIRC (FTR has channels on both and a description can be found in the Community Forum) and watch some players online and see the kind of hands they play and the reasons they play them. I realise that the time difference (AUS, UK & Europe and US) is going to be a bit weird, but I’m sure somebody will be about, particularly at the w/e.

its hard to say without seeing you play. obviously, most people who play badly think they play great when they obviously don't, is this you, i don't know.

couple things. one, that's not a cash game its a tournament

two, might you be really passive? early in the tournament, only play great hands. The other guys should naturally whittle themselves down to 5-6 when all you have to do is play ak/aq, aa-22, nothing more. when you get ak/aq, aa-kk-qq, and its early on in the tournament, raise it preflop enough so that you're only getting 1-2 callers, I don't care what the amount necessary is. As it gets toward 4-6 people left, loosen up a little bit. But the key is, raise preflop, bet the flop.

in that situation where you're pushing 200 with kk, into a 3xBB raise. the chip leader probably has 1K at this point, of course he's going to call. What is a BB here? you don't want to let your stack get too small relatively to the BB before you start pushing.

what/how fast do your blinds go up? if the blinds are big relative to your stacks, this might become a push or fold situation preflop really early, or it might be relatively unwinnable through skill.

Originally Posted by bad_beat_bandit

Hey all,

I'm a long time FTR observer, but new to the forums. I have a semi-serious cash game every week with 9 other like minded gamblers (in Australia) and I'm hoping for some advice on my strategy.

Welcome!

Most on the table have about 6 months experience and we're all of a similar skill level and we generally get good reads on each other because we play every week. The winners circle is reasonablewell distributed with one exception : ME !!

I think there are a couple of reasons for this, and the first (I hesistate to say it) is consistent bad luck. Out of every 10 hands, I'm lucky if a get better than a Q6 suited, and at least 50% of my hands are 72o's, or 95o/s or similar. If i do get a semi reasonable hand I'm usually out of position.

Thats how most hands are, especially in a live game here the deck may or may not be properly shuffled after every hand.

My resulting strategy is to play tight till I hit a Group 6 hand or better, then play the hand cautiously (because everyone knows if i don't fold pre-flop I've got a monster, and i just don't have the cards to see the occasional hand to the flop) and try and get some of my stack back. This tends to work OK, I'm usually in the last 4 at the table, but I'm constantly behind the 8-ball, and can never compete with the chip leaders at this stage and usually bow out 4th, due to a combinaton of blinds killing me and not hitting percentages when i do play a hand

Loosen up preflop, you said yourself they have reads on you that say you're a tight ass, so start playing more hands and raising more hands

Worse still, by the time I actually get dealt a monster or manage to limp in to see a flop and hit a flush or open ended straight draw, I never get the percentages and always lose the pot. For example, if I play an outside straight or flush draw all the way to river 5 or 6 times, I'll be real lucky to hit my out even once onthe turn or river

Theoritically (sp?) you're only going to hit your flush draw or straight draw 1 in 3 times

A further example of this is for the last 3 weeks running, I've gone all-in preflop with a moderately low chip stack (200 all-in with 4 or 5 players on the table, and a 400 chip start for everyone) after a 3X BB raise from someone in position, with myself having KK or AA. The player who raised 3X usually folds, but I usually get called by the chip leader with 8 10 o/s and end up going down to that hand with an 8 and 10 or a straight showing on the board without even picking up a set for my AA or KK !!

This happens when you're short stack, chipleaders call you with crap to knock you out, it sucks I know, but AA/KK wins in the long run

I try and use this to my advantage by blufffing and semi bluffing when i get bored of bad hands and it tends to scare a few people off post-flop and pick up a few blinds here and there, but I'm rarely up, and usually the chip leader/s are 4x or 6x my stack by the time we get down to 5 or 6 on the table.

Nothing really to say here.

So in essence, I play ultra tight aggresive on a medium loose table (30% call the big blinds each hand) try and minimise my losses, capitalise on some big hands, bluff where i can to counteract losing blinds, but i constantly fail to be on the right side of the percentages and inevitably go out on a bad beat (like my nickname suggests).

I've read up some strategies on this site and a few others, and I think I'm playing it relatively well, but I was wondering if there is an alternative strategy for consistently not getting playable hands, or having "bad luck". I haven't gone heads up in 3 months, and haven't won a night in 6 months. Any suggestions ??

Get Harrington on Holdem

There is some sound advice here that is worth considering and looking up.
personally i dont think you playing the live game enough. Id raise a lot more hands live than i would online. Im talking suited connectors, any ace. While there are still ten players yes this is risky but as the field starts to thin its definatly the way forward. Also, live i do less calling im either raising, reraising or folding (perhaps wathcing some tv poker will help here, especially some short handed tourney games will help. They raise big any ace any pp and in mp/lp any two face cards, most fold these to any reraise or push unless they think they are infront (you need good reading skills here))
Somebody said you probably have a passive style and this may be the case. If i was in your shoes i'd be tempted to bust out a few times over the next few weeks on dangerous plays eg pushing your pp over the top of someones raise a few times.
But overall loosen up by raising or folding no limping unless the whole damn table is limping and when you raise raise like you have the nuts but know when to rep and when to fold to reraises or shows of strength.
good luck, hope my style will help with your problem
oh yeah and be confident and aggressive

Welcome.

As always, good advice has already been given.

We've established that you need to loosen up your game. I would say you can play your usual game until one or two people go out. Then you need to step it up.

When you get a monster, play it like one! Raise preflop (and this is ALWAYS 3x the big blind or more! None of this pansy minimum-raise garbage). Bet the flop hard. Harder if there's a bet in front of you and a draw out there. Don't worry if they fold preflop, because you're going to be playing more hands like this with less later.

IMPORTANT: Pay attention to YOURSELF when you have that monster and raised, then bet the flop hard!! Remember what it felt like...the confidence of your bet. Where are you hands: on your face, on your stack, or on your cards? Remember how you sat, how you held your head. You're going to need to duplicate that confidence later, so PAY ATTENTION.

After one or two are out, reduce your starting requirements. Not much, but let a few more hands into your range, and raise (3x!) the hands that were just calling hands before.

Also relax your starting requirement in cycles with the button. Not just on the button, but in late position too.

This last thing may be bad advice, so I'll take critique here. I've found that I relax my starting requirement for a raise from under the gun (1st to act preflop). I find that a STRONG RAISE from that position gets more respect from the rest of the table, and picks up the blinds easier than a raise from the button. Most of them have nothing invested and will let go unless they really have a hand. You risk being raised more too, or being in a multi-way pot. So you need to have something. But whereas I usually try to get in cheap with a middle pair, I'll raise it under the gun. Limping only invites a raise anyway, and you're not folding them, so just kick it up and see. You can follow up with a nice confident continuation on the flop since you paid attention before, right?

EasyT

and maybe on occasion, after you start playing a little more aggro, buy a pot with a nice raise and then show everyone the rags you were dealt. it makes 'em feel like idiots too. gotta play the mind games.

that'll encourage action when you do catch your premium hands.

First of all, thanks everyone for the replies. All comments duly noted and I'll try playing a little different next week to see if it helps. I am aware that "bad luck" is a weak players excuse, but I think it's getting a fair few rough nights in a row and some bad beats impacting my confidence, which probably makes me more passive.

You need to loosen up slightly. If you are only playing monsters, then it is no wonder you get no action on your hands when you do. As for getting no cards, can you be a bit more specific? What kind of hands are we talking about? What do you do with hands like small pp’s 22-66? Mid pp’s 66 – 99? What about drawing hands like QJs?

What I mean is I will consistently get dealt 95 o/s (my most frequent hand) or another variant of that kind of hand (low, never connected and usually not suited). Its extremely rare for me to hit small or mid pocket pairs (I haven't been clocking it, but its rare), when I do i usually raise preflop. I very very rarely hit two value cards (when I do, its KK or AA, never AK, KJ or QJs). Next Monday I'll keep track of my hands and post them for you, and you can give me more pointers if that's okay.

I know I have to avoid camping, but its pretty demoralising hitting 95 o/s for 2 or 3 orbits and hit a decent hand. I usually bluff about 4 or 5 hands over the evening successfully, but i suppose i should bluff a little more ???

what/how fast do your blinds go up? if the blinds are big relative to your stacks, this might become a push or fold situation preflop really early, or it might be relatively unwinnable through skill.

Blinds start at 2/4 (400 chip each start) and double every time 2 guys bust out, or every 3 orbits if things are going slow. Usually I get to the point where i push 200 when there's 4 left on the table (Blinds 16/32) and the chip leader is at about 800. Should I be pushing a little earlier ??

I'll come back and edit this a little later, i have a class to get to.[/quote]

Originally Posted by bad_beat_bandit

Blinds start at 2/4 (400 chip each start) and double every time 2 guys bust out, or every 3 orbits if things are going slow. Usually I get to the point where i push 200 when there's 4 left on the table (Blinds 16/32) and the chip leader is at about 800. Should I be pushing a little earlier ??

That sounds like a rather odd blind structure, but that's beside the point.

At any point when you have less than 10x the big blind, play push/fold poker preflop. You have become short stacked to the point that you need to pick up chips to stay alive. You should be making some bluffs in these situations - particularly from late position with no raises (esp if you're not bluffing into the big stack). Here's an example:

It's folded to you on the button with 72o. You have 250 chips. Blinds are 16/32. SB has 400 chips. BB has 550.

As long as these players haven't been calling big bets, this is an excellent opportunity for you. Push. Preflop. They are going to have to commit almost half of their stack to call you. Usually they won't do this. Voila. Now instead of 250 chips, you have 298. Rinse and repeat.

Key points:
1. Any time you're making a move with sub-optimal cards, you want to have as few people limping, no raisers, and mostly moderate stacks as the potential callers.
2. If anyone has limped in, that slightly increases the quality of hand you need to make a play
3. If anyone has raised, that DRAMATICALLY increases the quality of hand you need to play
4. The more people left to act behind you, the riskier it is to play.

its hard to say without seeing you play. obviously, most people who play badly think they play great when they obviously don't, is this you, i don't know.

I'm by no means great, I'm asking advice aren't I ?

I understand the basic maths behind play, I get relatively good reads on my regular opponents, and I try and follow the basic advice that FTR has on their site; I understand the concept of pot odds and implied odds, and can quickly work them out on the fly, but its a little hard when I should be hitting a flush/straight draw 1 out of 3, and I'm struggling to hit it 1 out of 6 (even when i fold to a good raise postflop on a draw, I'll look at the deck to see what the turn/river would have been (i know I shouldn't do it ) and I still wouldn't have hit it) and then I get beat short stacked with AA/KK to a 10 8 o/s. It makes me a little paranoid to be honest, makes me tighten up and play more passively and not chase the out alot of the time, and I'm in the habit of thinking that the odds aren't going to pay off long term (I am a scientist with a good grasp of probability theory, and I know that it should work out long term, but it hasn't for a good many months) Would the right way to get over this just be to play aggressively and take the early bust until it starts to pay off?? Or do I alter my implied odds according to what my personal probability of hitting the draws etc are ??

When you get a monster, play it like one! Raise preflop (and this is ALWAYS 3x the big blind or more! None of this pansy minimum-raise garbage). Bet the flop hard. Harder if there's a bet in front of you and a draw out there. Don't worry if they fold preflop, because you're going to be playing more hands like this with less later.

Probably linked to my playing style, but if i have a monster and get anywhere near a 3x raise preflop, everyone will fold, unless the leader is in late and decides to call (I guess I should start loosening up and playing a few more hands, yes ??). I usually bet the flop nicely to encourage some action otherwise its folds all round, and hard when I'm short stacked but my monsters don't pay off as much as I'd like them to (like the last 3 weeks being busted with KK by the leader with 8 10 o/s). I don't usually get dealt a monster until later in the game anyhow. Is this likely to change if I loosen up more (not getting dealt a monster, the action on the table )?

That sounds like a rather odd blind structure, but that's beside the point.

We try and structure the blinds so everyone has 100BB to start off with (400 chips), and the blind raises often enough to keep things moving but slow enough so everyone gets to play at least a few hands (It's still a relatively social occasion). Do you have any suggestions for a different blind structure that may work a little better ?? BTW thanks for the advice, I'll try and bluff from position a little more and a little earlier in the game and work on stealing more blinds

Originally Posted by bad_beat_bandit

That sounds like a rather odd blind structure, but that's beside the point.

We try and structure the blinds so everyone has 100BB to start off with (400 chips), and the blind raises often enough to keep things moving but slow enough so everyone gets to play at least a few hands (It's still a relatively social occasion). Do you have any suggestions for a different blind structure that may work a little better ?? BTW thanks for the advice, I'll try and bluff from position a little more and a little earlier in the game and work on stealing more blinds

The blind structure you have is doable. Just sounds odd to someone who's used to seeing 1500 starting chips (but then blinds start at 10/20, so it's similar). I think that doubling them every time will ultimately result in having fairly large blinds (which can limit effectiveness of skill, to some extent). Still, not a big thing - I'd change other things about your game before I mess with this. For the record, here's my homegame blind structure (based on PokerStars SnGs, but with a 5/10 level added):
5/10, 10/20, 15/30, 25/50, 50/100, 75/150, 100/200, 150/300, 200/400, 300/600, 400/800, 600/1200, 1000/2000, ... (never gotten nearly this far). That's with starting stacks of 1500 and blinds raising every 15 minutes.

Also, depending on how much it's affecting your stack size, in tournaments it can be incorrect to call while chasing, even if you are getting the odds. This is because your EV for made hands later is drastically higher than just about anything you could make based on the odds the pot is offering you at that point (due to rising blinds). Losing chips = less power to capitalize on better hands later (when the blinds are bigger and the pots matter more).

Originally Posted by JeffreyGB

Also, depending on how much it's affecting your stack size, in tournaments it can be incorrect to call while chasing, even if you are getting the odds. This is because your EV for made hands later is drastically higher than just about anything you could make based on the odds the pot is offering you at that point (due to rising blinds). Losing chips = less power to capitalize on better hands later (when the blinds are bigger and the pots matter more).

Thanks for the heads up. I usually chase early on when the blinds aren't too big and the raises postflop don't effect my stack too much, provided I have a draw on the flop. I have trouble letting go of a draw postflop early on because its usually not too costly to see the turn, and at least I see a bit of action.

Also Re:Blinds. I'd like to sit everyone down and have a blind increase every15 minutes, but the game tends to get held up by drinks/cigarette breaks (we tend to have a few) so we only get through an orbit every half hour (which is slow, I know) but i think we'll change the doubling structure, and just increase smaller everytime we lose someone, instead of losing 2. Cheers

Don't get me wrong; if they're minbetting with low blinds and you have a strong draw, chase away. But if the pot odds are even close, I'm usually folding.