Narrated Bluff

I first posted this in my blog but it was suggested I post it here for the discussion that might ensue amongst those that don't browse that section of the forum.

At the risk of appearing like a total donk I will disclose my honest and precise thought process so it can be picked apart and critiqued. I caught myself being reluctant to do this out of embarrassment and fear of being wrong (despite having been wrong several times before in this forum). This is no doubt a big part of what has stunted my progress but I now feel I can go into it and I'm ready to receive and consider all opinions and constructive criticism. This in addition to the fact that I respect and trust many of the regular posters here. Still, learning to expose my vulnerability has been a challenge in my progression as a poker player. But I digress...

As it's been pointed out to me the whole premise of my plan for this hand breaks down when you consider my read on Villain, which is that he overvalues TP. But as I describe below I'd just stacked him at another table so I ask myself if he doesn't often immediately adjust, not wanting to stack off lightly so soon after - it's a gear I often switch to when I've just been stacked. I know the opposite argument is a popular one; him wanting to make his money back quickly, etc.


No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed)

BB ($9.75)
UTG ($10.43)
Hero (MP) ($10)
CO ($7.66)
Button ($27.85)
SB ($11.33)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 3, 3
UTG bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.95) 10, 9, 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $0.40, Hero raises $1.28, UTG calls $0.88

Turn: ($3.51) 9 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.76, UTG calls $1.76

River: ($7.03) 8 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $6.56 (All-In)


My real-time thoughts during the hand:

meta/gameflow: I'd just played a hand with him at another table. I flatted 99 from SB to his BTN raise then donked a AK9r flop. He raised, I shoved, he called and showed AQ.

pf: I'm flatting 33 initially for set value against his UTG range which I estimated was something like top 8% of hands: 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+
My flatting range here is something close to JJ-22,AQs-AJs,KJs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AQo

flop: He bets less than half pot on a board that is pretty scary for a significant portion of his range. So I raise repping strength or a big draw and immediately plan to b/f the following Turn cards: 6-T, any non-broadway diamond if he calls.

turn: when the 9 comes and pairs the board and its checked to me I just thought, "That's way better for me than it is for him." When he checks I spontaneously decided to bet half pot because I decided this was the best way to repp the nuts by making it look like I'm hoping to get raised or don't want him folding to too large a bet. But it was also the perfect amount to leave him exactly a PSB left behind if he should call. If I bet bigger and he calls he might be more inclined to get stubborn with an over-pair if he feels pot committed (if only for psychological reason as oppose to actual mathematical ones). When he flats I remember thinking, "He has an over-pair and doesn't know what to do or is playing a draw passively."

river: 8. Now, being a double paired board and seeing him check again, I think slowplayed straights, overpairs, missed draws are all folding, and I think he raises me on the flop with a set so I don't put him on a boat. I've shown strength the whole way, he hasn't, there's nothing left to do but put him to a decision for all his chips.

There it is, fwiw. This kind of shit is what happens when I'm playing too few tables. I get way way too deep in my own thoughts; too imaginative and not logical enough I suppose. Even if there is any validity to any of this it's been pointed out that it's "wasted" on this player. Maybe for discussion's sake we can imagine him as various types. Thanks in advance for your time. I know it may seem trivial but this hand wouldn't stop haunting me (the reason for which I'll disclose once the discussion has evolved a bit - maybe you've guessed already)

no set no bet are you wtfstupid

Originally Posted by al yell

pf: I'm flatting 33 initially for set value against his UTG range

Originally Posted by al yell

Flop: ($0.95) 10, 9, 8 (2 players)

Originally Posted by al yell

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed)

Originally Posted by al yell

Hero raises

does not compute

Wow OP.. I apologize to you for the already retarded responses you have received in this thread. Apparently, "no set, no bet", and "don't bluff in the micros" have become the new and 'improved' fundamental answers to give individuals.

I'll likely respond back at a later time when I'm not so tired. However, I will say (and it's general, which is usually no good), but that I don't typically incorporate small pairs into my bluffing range, as you generally have little to no equity when calls, so you are relying on pure fold equity. Having a bit more pot equity means you need less fold equity to make the play BE, or +EV.

I think you need to be ~50BBs deeper to shove this river, but that's just an arbitrary number and I have no mathematical proof that it's right, just that I'd much prefer a shove here to be a fairly large overbet, instead of just under PSB. There are a ton of river cards you could shove, but a black 8 isn't going to be one.

While I understand the concepts you put forth in this hand, I'm not sure I'm aggressive enough to take this line.

I don't mind the pre-flop truly, you seem to be looking for set value, which makes sense... but then I get a bit lost. I see where you were going with this bluff, but I am not sure I can raise his bet here... I don't have the math behind it, and am not sure I can do it yet, but I just don't see how this can often be +EV here...

But I'm not a great player... yet

It was a spur-of-the-moment attempt at playing a hand creatively, however awful it may be. Also, I'm not in the habit of getting out of line like this. I don't want to, consciously or otherwise, discouraging myself from future experimentation so I'm thankful for your open-mindedness so far and for bouncing around ideas. It isn't falling on deaf ears (err blind eyes).

I'll just point out that folding the flop is def my standard line. After sleeping on this for a night I see that my flop raise may be questionable but where it really breaks down is my reasoning on the Turn where I say, "That's way better for me than it is for him." tbh I can't back that up but it is actually what popped into my mind. I must have been thinking on the 3rd level where I assumed he was aware that it was not likely I'd made a boat so that's exactly what I chose to rep, especially after having raised him on the flop.

pre is fine, flop is fine also if villain isn't a spewdonk that won't fold AKo here. Turn is a bad card to barrel but river is a good one (all his AJ etcs have now missed and you fold out the odd overpair + 10 so betting is better than checking).

Oh and...you're a donk!

Originally Posted by Ravageur

Oh and...you're a donk!

Takes one to know one.

Like I mentioned elsewhere yesterday, if I hadn't won the hand my 'mistake' may have been apparent to me more quickly. But at the time I put a lot of weight in this:

....I'd just stacked him at another table so I ask myself if he doesn't often immediately adjust, not wanting to stack off lightly so soon after

so I believed I was getting him to fold everything but a boat on the River. And maybe it was just intuitive but his 'less than 1/2 pot' bet on Flop followed by smooth call on Turn to my equally weird looking bet just made him look weak/scared/unsure/drawing to me.