My Problem with "# of combinations villain can have

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

Originally Posted by bigslikk

Analogy: A Bag holds four marbles: two are blue and two are red. Your friend draws a marble without showing it to you. You then draw a bag out of the marble: it is blue. You now figure that your friend probably has a red marble. Isn't this flawed since your friend had a 50/50 shot of having red/blue and has the same likelihood now? Does your discovery of new information after the fact affect the probability of your friends holdings? I say no, it doesn't.

New information can be applied to past information. Combining the two you now have what I like to call 'super-information...' jk... It's the same sort of idea when we have and and now knowing that villain on the button has a one in 12.5 chance of having an ace. Before we see our cards, this number is different.

btw, you can't draw bags out of marbles.

The bots have discovered super information, we must steal this from them and then kill them.
I think you're taking the probability of what villain has preflop as an absolute. As previously mentioned by many posters, this is only one ingredient to the recipe.