Quote Originally Posted by Chopper
Quote Originally Posted by sublime8316
i'm counting 12 outs twice that puts us at about 36%, but only 8 of those outs are win outs.. 4 of them are a possible split pot. We're risking $10.96 to win $3.27. How would this play have the same EV or more than calling? Do we really gain enough fold equity versus this much action in front of us? It just seems like risking this much in a drawing situation couldn't be better than calling. Barring randomizing play but this is micros. Correct my thinking....
you arent risking $10.96. you have all villains covered by about $5. you are risking a good bit less since you cant lose your whole stack.

and, spoon never said that you had the SAME ev. he said both were positive. he never said which was better. for that, i'll let him speak for himself if he chooses to.

i think shoving is high variance with this many microstakes players. shoving may get us to HU play where we may be close to flipping...but could also be well behind a set (notice the flop is bet/raised/reraised indicating some solid strength). however, calling may induce others to call along allowing us to wait until we hit then popping them when they are committed. this would allow us to possibly cash in against 2+ players.

i think calling risks the minimum and gains the maximum. i am just too unsophisticated to back it with pretty math equations.
Intuitively I think calling is better in this particular situation. It's not really practical to get all mathy on it.