is my play the correct play for +EV

given my stack size and the strength displayed by villains and number of outs i had i figured i was a huge favorite... my play is either all in or fold and well i don't think folding here is +EV so...

of course they called me a donk and whatever but i don't think my play is bad at all... feedback?..

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($3.48)
Hero (BB) ($11.11)
UTG ($6.58)
UTG+1 ($6.64)
MP1 ($5.85)
MP2 ($4.43)
CO ($4.53)
Button ($3.35)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, A
UTG calls $0.05, UTG+1 calls $0.05, MP1 calls $0.05, 1 fold, CO calls $0.05, Button raises to $0.15, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.10, UTG calls $0.10, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.82) 8, Q, J (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.10, MP1 raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, Button raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $10.96 (All-In), 2 folds, CO calls $4.08 (All-In), Button calls $2.45 (All-In)

It's fine imo. Calling is +EV too.

i'm counting 12 outs twice that puts us at about 36%, but only 8 of those outs are win outs.. 4 of them are a possible split pot. We're risking $10.96 to win $3.27. How would this play have the same EV or more than calling? Do we really gain enough fold equity versus this much action in front of us? It just seems like risking this much in a drawing situation couldn't be better than calling. Barring randomizing play but this is micros. Correct my thinking....

Originally Posted by sublime8316

i'm counting 12 outs twice that puts us at about 36%, but only 8 of those outs are win outs.. 4 of them are a possible split pot. We're risking $10.96 to win $3.27. How would this play have the same EV or more than calling? Do we really gain enough fold equity versus this much action in front of us? It just seems like risking this much in a drawing situation couldn't be better than calling. Barring randomizing play but this is micros. Correct my thinking....

you arent risking $10.96. you have all villains covered by about $5. you are risking a good bit less since you cant lose your whole stack.

and, spoon never said that you had the SAME ev. he said both were positive. he never said which was better. for that, i'll let him speak for himself if he chooses to.

i think shoving is high variance with this many microstakes players. shoving may get us to HU play where we may be close to flipping...but could also be well behind a set (notice the flop is bet/raised/reraised indicating some solid strength). however, calling may induce others to call along allowing us to wait until we hit then popping them when they are committed. this would allow us to possibly cash in against 2+ players.

i think calling risks the minimum and gains the maximum. i am just too unsophisticated to back it with pretty math equations.

Yeah this is fine but how is calling not an option?

Originally Posted by Chopper

Originally Posted by sublime8316

i'm counting 12 outs twice that puts us at about 36%, but only 8 of those outs are win outs.. 4 of them are a possible split pot. We're risking $10.96 to win $3.27. How would this play have the same EV or more than calling? Do we really gain enough fold equity versus this much action in front of us? It just seems like risking this much in a drawing situation couldn't be better than calling. Barring randomizing play but this is micros. Correct my thinking....

you arent risking $10.96. you have all villains covered by about $5. you are risking a good bit less since you cant lose your whole stack.

and, spoon never said that you had the SAME ev. he said both were positive. he never said which was better. for that, i'll let him speak for himself if he chooses to.

i think shoving is high variance with this many microstakes players. shoving may get us to HU play where we may be close to flipping...but could also be well behind a set (notice the flop is bet/raised/reraised indicating some solid strength). however, calling may induce others to call along allowing us to wait until we hit then popping them when they are committed. this would allow us to possibly cash in against 2+ players.

i think calling risks the minimum and gains the maximum. i am just too unsophisticated to back it with pretty math equations.

Intuitively I think calling is better in this particular situation. It's not really practical to get all mathy on it.

no probs....but, if anyone could get all mathy, my money is on you and robb, professionally speaking.

Wait... I want someone to get all mathy...

I am going to try my hand at this to see if I understand it correctly, please someone correct me if I'm wrong...

With 4 limpers ahead of you and one raise, the button has some strength but looks to be isolating... I think the call is good. 5 players in the pot with this hand looks even better, IMO.

Now... post-flop... you are looking at 3 aces, 3 tens, Any King (4), any club (9 total clubs, minus King, for 8). I see potentially 18 outs but only 15 potential wins (8 flushes, 4 straights (one is a flush) and any ace... ) now figuring that at least one possibly two callers have a pocket Ace... you are looking at roughly 12-13 outs... so I get the outs...

Checking post flop is I assume to draw them out... making them think the flop missed you, which they likely feel it did. It also likely hit at least one of them with a pair of queens. One may also be holding a set... though without clearer reads on the button, I'm not sure on this, but his aggression would indicate strength... UTG is out... he's folding to any aggression... MP1 has a pair of 8 or a small pair... maybe Ax. CO is worrisome... he is quietly calling his way through this hand... but with your outs you have I think a great shot.

Now... for the mathy part I wanted to verify... with let's say 12 outs and two cards to come, aren't you looking at about a 48% chance (roughly) hitting? (I'm thrown by sublime's 36%)

Anyway, spoon mentioned calling in this spot. What I'd also like to know is, instead of shoving or just calling, is raising to isolate against the button a decent plan, potentially raise to $2 to get him to shove over first? Would this help to maximize our value on this hand?

Ok, a lot of questions, but trying to ensure I'm doing this stuff a little better...

Originally Posted by xX zorrito Xx

my play is either all in or call cos folding here is stupid...

fyp
and calling feels best to me here.

I would go for calling. There's a good chance the original raiser is coming along if you don't pop it up.
There are situations like this where pushing would be better even with little fold equity because you're buying both streets when there's a potential that you might get raised out of the pot on the turn. I don't see that here, I think they're all too short, and you'll get your pot odds, but I didn't check that. Feel free to calculate.

my theory with calling is simply that if i just flat call my hand it's so obvious that i'm drawing that if i hit they will more than likely check fold... i actually thought i was a big favorite with this many outs and so much money in this pot already i knew they weren't letting go of their hands so i pushed it all in...

Originally Posted by xX zorrito Xx

my theory with calling is simply that if i just flat call my hand it's so obvious that i'm drawing that if i hit they will more than likely check fold... i actually thought i was a big favorite with this many outs and so much money in this pot already i knew they weren't letting go of their hands so i pushed it all in...

yep, and this was fine.
NH