My biggest problem

I posted a little bit in the beginers forum, asking some questions about how to interpret my newly bought pokertracker results. From that I found that I lose a ton of money when I am betting at missed flops. I hear a lot about continuation betting being part of a good game, but I am doing it completely wrong. I have lost more money to this than I have profit at this point (about 32k hands at 6max.)

This includes being called down by a midpair, being called but hitting 2nd best hand on a later street, or being reraised and me folding.

How should I look at fixing this? If I were to take aok's advice for fixing a leak and make an "I will" statement and write it out 100 times, what would it say?

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oh boy, definitely don't be a slave to PT if you're a NL player, and also don't blindly make continuation bets if you're opponents are likely to call with anything.

the amazing thing about poker is you don't HAVE to do anything, you control every move, call, and bet.

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another thing to keep in mind with PT, is it doesn't give you your BB/100 for what would happen if you DIDN"T play a hand. For example, you might raise ATo a lot of the time, and you're -$$ with it. But that doesn't mean that raising ATo is a bad thing. You would be -$$ with it if you didn't play it at all too. It doesn't show you the comparison.

Originally Posted by Greedo017

another thing to keep in mind with PT, is it doesn't give you your BB/100 for what would happen if you DIDN"T play a hand. For example, you might raise ATo a lot of the time, and you're -$$ with it. But that doesn't mean that raising ATo is a bad thing. You would be -$$ with it if you didn't play it at all too. It doesn't show you the comparison.

theoretically, a good post flop player could show some healthy profit with marginal hands just like AA/KK would bring. how many times do you show down AA/KK when you may as well have played 27o? That isn't always the case, but i'm sure everyone has seen it.

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

cant wait for the replies here....'wtf does rippy know he is a broke ass mo fo borrowing money from FTR's...etc etc'

sad but true....but nevertheless....being a slave to stats is a sure fire way to becoming 'dead money'

funny watching that guy reraise with 10/10 tonight against Sammy's A/10 to a A/A/10 flop and bet the ranch going out the first hand....lmao

I just hate the idea of a computer program pointing out my 'leaks' with certain hands when every single situation is different.

That hand ruled. Then the guy went over to Tobey Maquire and started bitching like a pansy. What the hell is spiderman gonna do? Did you see the guy who raised like 20xBB preflop with AA? Sammy just smiled and called with 33 before hitting a set and busting him. Classic moment.

Rippy, I couldn't agree with you more. I'm not a big advocate of becoming a hold em math slave. Math was my best subject in school, but I still despise hold em math. Even Fnord the hold em math genius admitted that as you learn more about hold em, you become less and less dependant on the math. Each situation becomes it's own. Take the hold em route of instinct, and you'll learn the right way. Make no mistake about it. The best poker players in the world are improvisational by nature.

If computer programs could make you a winning player, then everyone who used one would be winning.

Math must have killed Rippy's dog or something.

To blatently ignore a tool is foolish. To limit yourself to one tool is foolish. Math is a tool to a poker player.

As for PT:

take PokerTracker and shove it where it belongs.

Yup, shove it right in there with your self-accounting and play-review. Having all of your hands indexed and available for review is a handy tool as well. In your case, the numbers seem to indicate you aren't being very successful in your continuation bets. You have every instance of continuation bets you have made available to you - look at the ones that worked and look at the ones that didn't. Figure out the difference and learn what doesn't work.

Which happens to be the same thing that would happen if you kept at it - eventually your instinct would be trained to avoid the situations where cont. betting isn't favorable. However, analysis will get you there faster and at less cost.

Originally Posted by CrunchyNuts

Math must have killed Rippy's dog or something.

To blatently ignore a tool is foolish. To limit yourself to one tool is foolish. Math is a tool to a poker player.

Rippy is a tool.

Crunchy made a good suggestion - before you give up on continuation bets, figure out why they failed. Were you continuation betting into 5 other players in the hand? Were you continuation betting into someone who had a set?
Was it a calling station with middle pair that just never believes someone has an overpair?
Hopefully analyzing a good subset of key hands should provide you with some info to improve your game!

After spending two hours or so looking through hands where I lost money after continuation betting, I found that it was usually either one of two things.

1: I would bet more than I would have needed to fingure out where I was at.

2: I wasn't paying attention at the table and was playing at a player who was either calling everything, or reraising everything.

Since I've been reading this post I've played about 4 hours of poker and feel like I haven't fucked things up for myself with betting away my stack in these situations. I haven't been playing perfectly by any means, but this has been huge for allowing myself to hold onto the money I make on other hands.

thanks errybody

(ps, Ripp, I have been lurking here for over a year, and the first thing i remember reading that really gave my game a boost was your strat for sitngos. thanks)

Making continuation bets out of position can be disastrous. You have no new information at all about your opponents and you're betting into the dark. In position you can throw your hand away to a bet if you'd like (saving money by making a continuation bet, getting raised or smooth called and then folding) or make a bet if it's checked to you. If you bet out at every flop then your more observant opponents will take notice and call you down with nothing. Check about a third of the time and bet 2/3 of the time and you'll get better results.

Also occasionally firing a second bullet after you're smooth called can take down a nice pot.

Originally Posted by CrunchyNuts

As for PT:

take PokerTracker and shove it where it belongs.

Yup, shove it right in there with your self-accounting and play-review. Having all of your hands indexed and available for review is a handy tool as well. In your case, the numbers seem to indicate you aren't being very successful in your continuation bets. You have every instance of continuation bets you have made available to you - look at the ones that worked and look at the ones that didn't. Figure out the difference and learn what doesn't work.

Which happens to be the same thing that would happen if you kept at it - eventually your instinct would be trained to avoid the situations where cont. betting isn't favorable. However, analysis will get you there faster and at less cost.

Agreed.

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

funny watching that guy reraise with 10/10 tonight against Sammy's A/10 to a A/A/10 flop and bet the ranch going out the first hand....lmao

Given how rare the (non-flush) nuts are in hold'em, you're losing A LOT of money in that spot, almost certainly going bust. That's the cold, harsh reality of poker. If you're suggesting you wouldn't go broke there, then that's just silly. I fail to see how this example adds much content to the discusison, other than if you're not ready to run bad, then you're playing too big. If you go to the WSOP main event unprepared to be on the losing end of a hand you have no control over, then you is the fish.

Originally Posted by Staple Gun

Rippy is a tool.

I wouldn't go that far. His style has merit because a lot of medicore nitty players won't stand up to him, fail to read him quickly among their 4+ tables (they incorrectly think he's a maniac) and then play him all wrong. Even when you play it right, it's fustrating because you're reduced to re-bluffing and inducing his "fuck that weak shit, I'm all-in" reflex. If you pick the wrong spot or get sucked out on it's going to be expensive. However, rolling over and waiting for a nut-like hand is a sure-fire road to failure.