Most flops are.....

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

If about 55% of flops are two-tone if no hole cards were seen, and with our example 3/4 of the flushes are covered, it should be less than 75% of 55% do you see why?

Help! No I don't, but that's what I was aiming for.

Originally Posted by Tasha

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Originally Posted by spoonitnow
If about 55% of flops are two-tone if no hole cards were seen, and with our example 3/4 of the flushes are covered, it should be less than 75% of 55% do you see why?

Help! No I don't, but that's what I was aiming for.

With 52 cards unknown, the chance of a two-tone flop is 55%. If we want to know the likelihood a specific suit will flop, it's 25%*55%. The chance that one of 3 specific suits will fall is 75%*55%.

But that's the probability with 52 cards unknown. We are stating that we know that each of the 3 players has 2 cards of their suit, so the chance of a two-tone flop falling for their suit is diminished, because two of their suited cards are taken out of the deck.

Okay, thanks, now I get it. Wish I could get this down once and for all.
How does this affect preflop play? If you have suited hole cards then your chances of flopping a flush draw are about 25%. Does that make it worthwhile calling a preflop bet up to 4 x BB?

Originally Posted by Tasha

How does this affect preflop play? If you have suited hole cards then your chances of flopping a flush draw are about 25%. Does that make it worthwhile calling a preflop bet up to 4 x BB?

Read post 31 by pdk1010 in this thread. It shows the probabilities of the different kinds of boards you can flop with a suited hand (flopped flush, flopped draw, 1 of your suit, none of your suit).

Even if you flop a draw, you're still only 35% or so to make it by the river.

Ultimately, the decision to call a 4xBB bet with a suited hand hoping for a flush is very situational and relies on implied odds. What are the stack sizes? How many people are already in the pot? Will someone behind try to squeeze you out? Will your opponent pay you off if you hit? Will he play too aggressively to be able to get to the river on just a draw? Do you have any steal equity postflop to make it profitable even if you miss hitting a flush draw? etc.